REAL OR HYBRID WAR?

That relations between the U.S. and Iran escalate in May was expected. In November 2018, when the U.S. imposed sanctions on the purchase of Iranian oil, the Trump administration granted waivers to eight nations to continue buying oil from the country until the beginning of May. Also, it has been a year since President Trump unilaterally withdrew his country from a nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPA) between Iran and a group of six countries. In other words, both sides were preparing for May.

Subsequent events happened very fast... In the last days of April, Washington cancelled waivers on Iranian oil import for eight countries. In early May, Iran encouraged the remaining JCPA signatories to protect the deal. Iranian president Hassan Rouhani stated that the partners had six months to renegotiate the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal. Later, Tehran announced that it has suspended some of its commitments under the nuclear program (para. 26 and 36 of JCPA), which allowed Iran to have no more than 300 kilograms of low-enriched (3.67%) uranium, to sell the excess of this volume to third countries and to keep no more than 130 tons of heavy water used in nuclear reactors. Iran also threatens the world to continue the process of uranium enrichment. In response, Washington immediately imposed an embargo on the export of Iranian metal.

Amidst the unfolding events, Washington began to transfer additional forces to the Persian Gulf. On May 6, it was reported that the U.S. Department of Defence sent the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln anchored off the Mediterranean coast of Italy to the Persian Gulf. This was followed by reports of the transfer to the the U.S. air base in Qatar of another warship, USS Arlington, as well as four tactical bombers B-52 and the Patriot missile system.

It is well known that the U.S. has a powerful military presence throughout the Middle East. Nevertheless, the Pentagon’s decision to send additional troops to the region reinforced suspicions about the start of a new war in the region. According to American press, Washington took this decision after having been tipped by the Israeli intelligence about Iran’s planned attacks on American interests and armed forces in the Middle East. In the following days, it was reported that Washington was going to send 120,000 troops to the Persian Gulf. But both President Trump and other American officials each time denied these reports.

Nevertheless, on May 24, President Trump approved a plan to send 1,500 more troops to the Middle East. According to Vice-admiral Michael Gilday, Director of the Joint Staff, additional troops were sent at the request of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and consist of manned and unmanned aerial reconnaissance systems, a Patriot air defence system, and a fighter jet fleet.

Who wants war between the U.S. and Iran

Now we have a question: if the U.S. president says that Washington does not plan to attack Iran, why do they need to concentrate so much military power in the Persian Gulf?

Firstly, a series of events that took place in the Middle East in the current month gives us good reason to assume that there is an “Iranian threat” in the region for the United States and its allies. On May 14, four oil tankers of Saudi Arabia (2), Norway (1) and the United Arab Emirates (1) were attacked in the Gulf of Oman. According to the U.S. military, the attack was set up by Iranian forces. However, Tehran denied any involvement in the incident claiming that it was a provocation to worsen the regional situation and accused Israel.

Two days later, seven drones of Yemeni Houthis attacked the Saudi pipeline. At the end of the same week, unidentified armed men attacked the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, located in a carefully guarded "green zone" of the city.

In other words, it appears that someone is seriously interested in rigging a casus belli between the U.S. and Iran. For example, during a period of rising tensions around Iran, American media reported that President Trump was very angry with his national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo for exacerbating of the situation around Iran. Trump dismissed a report on Pentagon's alleged plan to send 120 thousand American troops to the Gulf zone and said that he was waiting for a phone call from Iran.

Despite all these denials and refutations, additional troops did appear in the Gulf after Mr. Trump's personal approval. Apparently, there are very strong groups in Washington that are extremely interested in increasing tensions with Iran. And not only in Washington. Trump's allies in the Middle East, primarily led by the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the powerful Jewish lobby of the United States supporting him, are also interested in war with Iran.

Yet another powerful group that wants war with Iran is the alliance of Arab leaders of the Persian Gulf. Like Israel, they see and openly declare Iran as the main threat to their respective countries.

In fact, Iran is waging a mandate war with Israel and the Arab emirs of the Persian Gulf in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq. Everyone understands that a power behind Houthis in Yemen, al-Assad in Syria, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon is that of the Islamic Republic of Iran. That is why to neutralise these forces, it is necessary to defeat Iran, which only the United States can afford. This is the reason for internal and external attacks on Trump. Despite a lack of political experience, the incumbent U.S. president properly assesses his own interests and those of his government, refraining from confrontation with Iran. At the same time, the same interests force President Trump to maintain a tense atmosphere in the Middle East, since there will always be a need for strong America in the Persian Gulf that opposes itself to “aggressive and dangerous” Iran. Actually, the Arab regimes are a real treasure for Trump. For example, on May 24, U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo announced that the Trump administration bypassed the Congress and decided to sell $8.1 billion worth of weapons to Arab countries in order to "prevent Iranian violence".

U.S. and Iranian military potential in the region

As we mentioned, even without additional forces, the U.S. has a huge military potential in the Middle East, which is believed to be 120 thousand troops. The U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, which consists of 20 warships and 20 thousand soldiers, controls an area of ​​20 million square kilometres, including the Persian Gulf, the Oman Sea, the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, and is just a step away from Iran, in Bahrain.

In addition, several U.S. military bases, which were used mainly during the Iraq campaign, are located in southern regions of Iraq and in Kuwait. Even the most peaceful country of the Persian Gulf, Oman, has hosted about 26 thousand American soldiers since the beginning of the Arab Spring.

About five thousand U.S. military are still stationed at the U.S. military base near the capital of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh. Another American military base equipped with a Nimitz class aircraft carrier is deployed in the emirate of Dubai (UAE).

There are 13 thousand troops and more than 100 combat aircraft at the largest U.S. military facility in the region, Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar, which received four more B-52 nuclear bombers at its disposal a few days ago.

In the event of war, the American army can rely on the support of Saudi Arabia, Israel and several other Gulf nations. Taking into account 14 thousand American troops in Afghanistan, the Pentagon has actually surrounded Iran from all sides.

Although Iranian army lags behind some of its rivals in terms of weaponry and technical equipment, in terms of combat experience and the accelerated development of missile and unmanned aerial surveillance systems, Iran still has certain advantages.

In general, Iran’s military power is concentrated in two official structures: Ministry of Defence and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The latter consists of several units, including the organisation’s armed forces, Mobilisation Resistance Force (Basij) and the Al-Quds Brigade, which specialises in military operations outside the country.

According to official data, the estimated number of active Iranian military troops is 520-538 thousand people. The core of the Iranian army, or about 350 thousand people, is ground troops. The total number of IRGC soldiers reaches 265 thousand people, of which 230 thousand serve as part of ground forces, 20 thousand in the Iranian Navy, and 15 thousand in the Iranian Air Force.

Basij, which is directed by IRGC, is a paramilitary militia formed from volunteers from all parts of the country who faithfully honour the values ​​of the Islamic Revolution. According to various estimates, the organisation unites 11 million people, although the total number of active troops with military training and ability to mobilise within one month in the event of emergency is 3 million people.

Finally, the third major military wing of IRGC is Al-Quds Brigades, special forces for external military operations. It consists of about 15 thousand soldiers, a third of whom is specially trained troops.

The Iranian army has 1600 tanks, 600 infantry fighting vehicles and 640 armoured personnel carriers. In addition, it has 200 combat and 20 heavy transport helicopters, 25 Russian Mi-171 helicopters and 180 anti-aircraft installations.

Iranian Navy is subordinate to the Ministry of Defence (18 thousand people) and IRGC (20 thousand people in total with 5 thousand of them as marines). It has 29 submarines and 69 warships produced in both the USSR and Iran.

Iranian Air Force has 18 thousand people and 12 thousand people in air defence troops. In total, Iranian military aviation has more than 500 aircraft.

In the event of war, Iran will naturally extend it to other countries of the region through the armed resistance groups, which it supports in the Middle East and are in no way inferior to the Armed Forces of many countries in terms of their military power and capabilities.

These forces are deployed in countries such as Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen. Naturally, Hezbollah is Iran’s main support force beyond its borders. According to some sources, at the present time in the ranks of the organization are 20 thousand fighters (only 65 thousand members), distinguished by a high level of professionalism and combat experience. Thanks to the financial and military support of Iran, and in a certain sense created with the direct participation of Tehran, the organization has an arsenal of 150,000 missiles, mainly of Iranian production, capable of suppressing targets at a distance of 45-200 km. During the war with Israel in 2006, Hezbollah used Russian and Chinese anti-ship and anti-tank missiles, indicating the organization’s contacts with weapons suppliers from the above countries.

According to some allegations, more than 30 armed groups, or about 55,000 fighters supported by Iran, are currently fighting in Syria. The Hussite movement - Ansarulla, known for its proximity to Iran, has controlled the capital of Yemen, Sana, since 2014, effectively seizing power in the country. According to the assumptions, the number of supporters of the Hussites ranges from 100 to 120 thousand, of which 30 thousand are active fighters of the movement.

The military wing of Hamas, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam brigade, operating in Gaza and also considered an ally of Iran, has about 10,000 fighters. In the Gaza Strip, there is another group known for its proximity to Iran and considered the second most powerful armed organization in Gaza after Hamas, the Islamic Jihad of Palestine’s military wing of the Al-Quds Brigade, the exact number of fighters remaining unknown.

Finally, there are about 55 Shiite armed units in the territory of Iran’s closest neighbour, Iraq. After the capture of Mosul by Islamic State (IS), these units were united under the voluntary command of the Popular Mobilisation Forces also known as al-Hashd ash-Sha'abi. Although some of these groups are far from Iran, the Iraqi wing of Hezbollah, Army of Badr and many other large armed groups are very close to Qasem Soleimani, commander of al-Quds Brigade. In total, al-Hashd ash-Sha'abi unites about 300 thousand people, and the number of active military personnel is about 135 thousand.

War Button

It is difficult to predict the development of events in and around Iran, as well as the outcome of rising tension in the region — direct military intervention or a hybrid war in Iran conducted by Washington. We can also witness another turn of events similar to the 2017 Korean scenario, when the unexpected decline in tension boosted the start of diplomatic talks between Washington and Pyongyang. Apparently, the Trump administration is threating Iran to force the country's leadership to the next round of negotiations. By the way, according to Kuwaiti media, which refers to the deputy foreign minister of this country, Tehran and Washington have allegedly started secret negotiations. But Tehran refuses to negotiate with Washington, which means that even in the best-case scenario, situation in the region will remain dramatic. Iranians can hope for Trump’s defeat in the upcoming presidential elections next year, but before that, someone can lose temper and press the war button...