IDLIB BOILING

The situation around the Syrian province of Idlib has sharply worsened over the past month. Military attacks so common in this region have gradually transformed into large-scale operations using heavy equipment, artillery and aircraft. Over the past two years following the announcement of 'de-escalation zone' in Idlib, it is the most serious blow to the peaceful settlement of the Syrian crisis.

Militants active again

Since mid-May, militants of the Free Syrian Army and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have become active in the west and south of Idlib, respectively. To counter the government troops and Russian military aircraft, the militants used multiple rocket launchers (MLRS), which have confused the government army and frightened the entire front-line zone.

During the talks in Sochi, Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham declared that they would not accept the Idlib memorandum, which assumes the establishment of a demilitarized zone around the province. The irreconcilable radicals were well prepared for the offensive, having eliminated those groups and individuals that were dissatisfied with their dominant position in Idlib. Some groups, such as Nuraddin al-Zinki known for their extremely radical position against the Assad government, have completely ceased to exist.

In the next attack in the north of the province of Hama, the terrorists used tanks. Nobody knows where they got tanks, which have broken the positions of the government forces and occupied a couple of settlements in the demilitarized zone. Thanks to their speed, pick-ups with large-calibre machine guns cut through the defense line of the regular army. The attack was so rapid that it created a real threat of terrorist infiltration into the country.

The situation was once again normalised by Russian aviation, which mercilessly bombed tanks and jihadist pickups. But the very fact of a breakthrough seriously alarmed the leadership of the Syrian army and Russian military advisers. Large forces of Syrian special forces were hastily transferred to the north of the province of Hama.

Aircraft first

Russian aviation is well acquainted with the Syrian sky. In general, Russian aircraft have adopted the NATO tactics of preliminary air strikes. Tested in Iraq, Afghanistan, and even earlier in Yugoslavia, the tactic assumes systematic destruction of strongholds, heavy weapons, communications and warehouses of the enemy before the attack of ground forces.

In Syria, Russian aircraft have realised their advantages, turning the ISIS terrorists into 'laboratory rats' for experimenting with new types of weapons.

Even NATO recognized the merits of Russian pilots, secretly reporting that it was the Russian operation that forced ISIS terrorists to leave the occupied territories and stop fighting.

Russians used the same tactic in Idlib. True, the presence of Turkish forces has somewhat limited the expansion of Russian airstrikes, but front-line reports strictly indicate their effectiveness. The West, however, uses the tactics of periodical accusations claiming that Russians allegedly cause civilian casualties during air strikes — the fact that also does not allow Russian pilots to show their potential in full.

The world community perceives the situation around Idlib ambiguously. Thus, U.S. President Donald Trump called on his Twitter to refrain from bombing Idlib. The head of the White House considers the actions of Russia, Syria and Iran to be too bloody. It seems that some forces are really interested to see the 'Idlib pot' continue boiling. Russian military intelligence asserts that the secret services of some countries are preparing yet another chemical provocation against the civilian population in Idlib, in order to blame the Assad coalition for this. A skirmish on this subject between the French and Russian Foreign Ministries reminds a popular saying: no smoke without fire.

'White helmets' so generously backed by Western money and calling themselves 'civil defense forces' also play an instrumental role in whipping up hysteria around the province. Any artillery or airstrike in Idlib, followed by wiping off the area from debris and helping the victims, is fixed on camera, edited and then presented to the world community.

It is not accidental therefore that the Russian aviation attacked the headquarters of the 'white helmets' in the village of Kefrenbil near Idlib. 'Hysteria' will continue, of course, but without a central headquarters.

Turkish factor

Idlib remains the last and largest security zone in Syria. Before the conclusion of the memorandum in Astana, the territory was fully controlled by Syrian opposition. In addition to the territory of the province, Idlib also includes the western part of the province of Aleppo, the northern part of Hama and the northeastern part of Latakia.

This whole area closely adjacent to the southernmost province of Turkey, Hatay. The interest of Turks in the northern regions of Syria is obvious and understandable. Massive inflow of refugees, disruption of economic ties, threat to security and other factors made Turkey an unwitting party to the Syrian conflict.

To defend its borders, the Turkish army at the beginning of the year carried out a successful operation against Kurdish separatists on the west bank of the Euphrates and advanced close to Idlib.

An unpleasant complication for Turkey is that after the defeat of Islamic radicals in the central regions of Syria, many of them headed for the relatively calm Idlib, having “repainted” in advance in the colours of the opposition.

By signing the Astana and Sochi memorandums, Turkish president took a responsibility to take control of the radicals. Thus, according to agreement between Russia, Turkey and Iran, Idlib security zone became Ankara’s area of ​​responsibility and Turkish checkpoints were established there.

However, Erdogan cannot completely oust Islamic radicals from the north of Syria. But the Turks will not tolerate their aggressive behaviour in the territories under their control. Perhaps, this explains the ongoing events as the last attempt of militants to show themselves.

On the other hand, Damascus, inspired with success, clearly looks towards Idlib and is waiting for a chance to finish the last nest of terror.

Another equally important problem is that Idlib remains a densely populated region even after eight years of civil war - there are now 2.5 million people living there, and the military operation of the Syrian Arab army can provoke a mass population flight. In Turkey, quite objectively, they fear such a course of events: the country has already accepted more than 3 million Syrian refugees, who have become a serious burden for the country's budget. Turkey calls on Russia to press Assad in order to prevent a ground operation in Idlib.

Recently, the head of the General Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces Hulusi Akar hinted that his country would not put up with attempts to revise the status quo. Recalling the efforts of Turkey to achieve and maintain a ceasefire, Akar stressed that Ankara expects Russia to take active and decisive measures to put an end to the attacks of the regime forces in the south of Idlib.

Everyone understands that a unilateral decision to launch a military operation in Idlib would be a heavy blow to Russian-Turkish relations. As Russian President Vladimir Putin said, at present, the ground military operation in Idlib is inexpedient, “however, it cannot be ruled out in the future.”

The Russian president understands that Idlib’s problem is extremely complex and will not be solved overnight. It requires patience and common sense.

Russia, Turkey and Iran, as the guarantors of peaceful settlement of the Syrian crisis, are also united in the fight against terrorists. As long as the spirit of terrorism is not eliminated in the Syrian land, the parties will make compromises. Perhaps their attempts yield tangible fruits in due time.