POLITICAL CRISIS IN MOLDOVA

Moldova, one of the poorest countries in the post-Soviet space, goes through the largest political crisis since its independence. Although there are many factors, including geopolitical, that can explain Chisinau's back-and-forth between Russia and the West, experts focus on the anti-oligarch tendency of internal Moldovan battles. Apparently, a significant part of society and the political elite of the country seriously intend to put an end to liberties of individual forces as one of the main reasons for the unprecedented socio-economic situation in Moldova.

"State captured by the oligarchs"

The current crisis in Moldova started after the parliamentary elections held on February 24, 2019. The 101-seat parliament is dominated by representatives of three political forces: the ruling Democratic Party of Moldova (PDM) led by the country's most famous oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc, Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) headed (not officially) by the incumbent president Igor Dodon and political bloc ACUM (“Now”).

The latter two political forces, with the majority of votes necessary to establish the government, entered into negotiations to create a coalition government. This tactical alliance initially seemed paradoxical, given the difference in geopolitical views of the pro-Russian PSRM and pro-Western bloc ACUM led by the former adviser to World Bank's executive director, former Minister of Education of Moldova, leader of the Action and Solidarity Party, Maia Sandu, and famous lawyer, head of Platform Dignity and Truth Party, Andrei Nastase. However, at this stage their goal was “eliminating the Plahotniuc regime” and his political party PDM, the force advocating balanced relations between Russia and the West, but suspected solely of serving the interests of the infamous oligarch. Reaction of Maia Sandu to various assumptions about the possibility of creating a coalition between ACUM and PDM is remarkable: “If Democratic Party did not consist of mafiosi, the coalition would be possible... We have nothing to talk about with thieves, with people who seized power. If it were not for Plahotniuc, we would have negotiated.”

In other words, pro-Western ACUM agreed to join the coalition with the pro-Russian party of President Dodon, but not with the semi-Western-semi-Russian organization of the country's largest businessman, considered almost its shadow ruler. However, negotiations between PSRM and ACUM were not easy and could not meet the three-month deadline prescribed in the Constitution, according to which the parliament shall be dissolved incapable of forming a government. By the end of May, the outlines of the new PSRM-ACUM cabinet became more or less tangible. It is possible that the green light came from the global centres, as the coalition was supported by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak, authorised representative of the U.S. Department of State for Eastern Europe, Bradley Fried, and European Commissioner for Enlargement and Neighbourhood Policy, Johannes Hahn, who visited Chisinau almost simultaneously. It is obvious that Plahotniuc got a red card from both Russia and the West.

Apparently, both the Kremlin and Euro-Atlantic centres came to the same conclusion that Plahotniuc is an unprincipled politician acting solely in his own interests, according to which his current geostrategic preferences change. Moscow made it clear that it did not consider Plahotniuc a serious partner. Brussels and Washington also signalled a message of no confidence in the slogan of rapprochement with the EU periodically declared by PDM.

It seems however that Plahotniuc himself is not going to give up. As his main opposition tool, he resorted to the Constitutional Court under his control, which on June 7 decided to dissolve parliament under the pretext of the deputies' inability to form a government within 90 days (although Article 85 of Constitution mentions three calendar months, not a specific number days). However, on June 8, that is before the completion of the three-month constitutional term, PSRM and ACUM announced the creation of a coalition government headed by Maia Sandu (with socialist Zinaida Greceanii as president of the parliament) and, accordingly, the abolishment of the former cabinet led by Pavel Filip of PDM. In response, the Constitutional Court ruled to dissolve the Parliament, announced the illegitimacy of the Sandu government, deprivation of powers of President Dodon (since he refused to comply with the decision of the Constitutional Court) and the transfer of the duties of the President of Moldova to acting Prime Minister Pavel Filip. The latter did not hesitate to set the date for the early parliamentary elections, September 6, 2019.

Along with the measures of the Constitutional Court, Plahotniuc and his party used street protests as a tool of pressure. PDM supporters picketed the presidential administration building and a number of ministries. They actually blocked their activities, demanding the resignation of the president and dissolution of parliament. Parliamentarians, in turn, expressed a vote of no confidence in the Constitutional Court and adopted a declaration proclaiming Moldova “a state seized by oligarchs”. The document, in particular, states: “Parliament of the Republic of Moldova, as the country's highest legislative body, states with concern that state institutions, including legal institutions, have been seized. All citizens suffer from corruption, from total control over legal institutions and judicial bodies by oligarchic structures, as well as violation of civil liberties.”

One of the authors of the parliamentary declaration, co-chair of the ACUM bloc, Andrei Nastase, who received the post of minister of internal affairs in the new government, accused the Constitutional Court of making decisions that directly contradict Moldova’s legislation and initiated a lawsuit against the court at the European Court of Human Rights. Prime Minister Maia Sandu said: "Parliament and the government that I head are legally elected authorities and cannot be dissolved by anyone... We will not obey decisions that are contrary to the law and the will of the citizens."

As for President Dodon, he annulled Filip's decree on the dissolution of parliament and the appointment of a date for early elections and, most importantly, made it clear that he could also call on his supporters to take to the streets to counter PDM. It seems that this is the only power resource of the president, since earlier the pro-Western deputies of the current and previous convocations of the parliament did everything possible to deprive the pro-Russian president of relevant powers. Certain laws deprived Igor Dodon of the right to issue decrees and orders to law enforcement agencies, including the Ministry of Defense, and this despite the fact that the Constitution obliges the president to protect the independence of the state and political stability in the country.

Between West and East

Moldovan President Igor Dodon confirmed that the new parliamentary coalition is setting itself the goal of “freeing state institutions from the influence” of oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc and his Democratic Party. "We, the citizens of Moldova with different views on domestic and foreign policy, can unite for the sake of a common goal: liberation of Moldova from the criminal, dictatorial regime," Dodon said. Most importantly, he made it clear that in a situation where “Democratic Party is not going to peacefully transfer power to the legitimate parliamentary majority and the legitimate government”, the latter have no “other choice but to appeal to the international community to mediate in the process of peaceful transfer of power and / or urge the people of Moldova to unprecedented mobilization and access to peaceful protests. ”

The warning of possible protests, of course, does not exclude further aggravation of the crisis, even with the likelihood of bloodshed. However, experts nevertheless believe that it will not come to a bloody civil confrontation, and in this case an external factor can play a key role in resolving the Moldovan crisis.

It was not by chance that Dodon emphasized that the parliament and the new government were recognized as "partners from the West and the East." In addition, he announced the intention of his party to strengthen external pressure on the Constitutional Court. It is clear that it is all about pressure from Russia, EU and the U.S., which recognized the legitimacy of the PSRM - ACUM coalition. In this sense, the request of the Secretary General of the Council of Europe, Thorbjørn Jagland, to the Venice Commission, with an urgent appeal to express its opinion on the latest decisions of the Constitutional Court of Moldova, including on the conditions for dissolution of parliament, is also important. The Venice Commission is expected to make its decision on the legal aspects of the situation in Moldova on June 21.

Meanwhile, the government of Pavel Filip, recognized by the Constitutional Court as a legitimate authority, is seeking appropriate support from foreign power centres. They expect that the United States and personally the U.S. ambassador to Chisinau Derek Hogan, who was summoned to Washington for consultations and returned to Moldova on the fifth day of the events, change their view. Hogan had a detailed conversation with President Dodon, but on the eve of the meeting, the Filip government took a very unexpected step. It "urgently" announced the transfer of the Moldovan Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. At the same time, PDM approved the agreement on the sale of a land plot for the construction of an American embassy in Moldova. Apparently, Plahotniuc and his people seriously expect that such decisions can turn in their direction the sympathy of the U.S. administration.

Prime Minister Maia Sandu described Filip's “Israeli” decision as an “insult to the United States,” expressing the hope that the U.S. “would not appreciate such an attitude and action.” Sandu again demanded that PDM "surrender, take away the people in front of state institutions and leave."

The question now is whether the supporters of the oligarch Plahotniuc agree with existing situation. Will the political crisis in a country which has an acting parliament dissolved by the Constitutional Court, a Constitutional Court denied by a new coalition, two governments, president and acting president be resolved at all in the near future? Moldova is a country that is still on the outskirts of socio-economic development in the CIS and, especially, in Europe.