WHIP AND CARROT FOR PALESTINE

Deal of the century, or the new plan for radical settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict developed by the son-in-law of President Donald Trump and his senior adviser of Jewish origin Jared Kushner would raise questions anyway however ideal it seems to be. At least because in December 2017 Trump signed a resolution recognizing Jerusalem as a capital of the Jewish state, and in March 2019 the presidential administration announced the Golan Heights, controlled by Tel Aviv since 1967, as Israel’s territory. Bold steps that six of his predecessors did not dare to do.

Obviously, it is the current regional and international conditions that make the adoption of such a plan possible, as well as the image of the current American president, who despite harsh criticism of his actions by the leading political organizations of the world did not back down.

The new plan has been developed by the presidential administration over the past two years. However, for various reasons, Kushner had to postpone its public release twice - in April and June 2019. Initially, it was announced that the plan would be released to public immediately after the parliamentary elections in Israel at the end of April, before the establishment of the new government, which would allow Netanyahu’s “new old government” to share responsibility with the new cabinet. But since the election results were uncertain, the announcement had to be postponed until June. However, the unformed Israeli government and unfavourable regional conditions shifted the date of announcement again, this time till September 2019, when repeated parliamentary elections will be held in Israel. By the way, unless a new war with Palestine begins, Benjamin Netanyahu’s victory in this election is less likely.

At the end of June, Kushner nevertheless seized an opportunity to announce his new plan in the capital of Bahrain, Manama, during the two-day conference Peace for Prosperity. In fact, the event was organised so that Kushner could announce the financial advantages of his plan for the region and Palestine before high-level speakers and participants of the event.

The Palestinian government boycotted the meeting, but this did not prevent the participation of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, UAE, Morocco and Bahrain.

Remarkably, the author of the plan, Jared Kushner, did not clarify the borders of Israel and Palestine in a video presentation accompanying his speech. The Kushner plan includes new infrastructure projects, as well as energy, education and technological development in Palestine and Israel.

According to Kushner, the new US plan could be a kind of appeal to ensure the permanent residence of Palestinian refugees in the territories they have inhabited. At a press conference on July 3, Kushner also touched the situation of Jews who fled or were expelled from Arab countries.

The problem of refugees and their status is one of the most significant problems of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. For the past hundred years, the deployment of Jews from other countries in the region, and four subsequent wars between them and the Palestinians, forced the latter to flee to neighbouring countries or become refugees in Palestine. Moreover, in these lands, Israel built new settlements. The fate of these territories is the most sensitive issue of the Palestinian conflict. Kushner's plan does not offer a complete solution. More precisely, the new residential complexes of Israel remain in their places and belong to Israel.

Essence of the plan

Called the Kushner Plan and the Deal of the Century, the document describes a mechanism for settling the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Only the general details and the initial stage of the plan are known so far. According to Kushner, the US will announce the next steps of the plan later. Yet Israeli media covered the details of the document before the conference in Manama.

The plan will guarantee $50 billion of financial assistance to the Palestinian economy, as well as to Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, which have provided asylum for Palestinian refugees at various times.

The first part of the document concerns the issue of political understanding and assumes that a trilateral agreement is signed between the Israeli government, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and HAMAS, which controls the Gaza Strip. Under the terms of the agreement, with the exception of Jewish settlements on the west coast of the Jordan River, the state of New Palestine will be proclaimed in the territories under the control of the Palestinian Authority and in the Gaza Strip.

As part of the second stage of the plan, Jewish settlements will remain with Israel, and the area of ​​roads and settlements connecting them with Israel will be expanded. Jerusalem will not be divided between Palestine and Israel, but will be declared the capital of both states. Arab residents of Jerusalem will become citizens of New Palestine. Mayor of Jerusalem will report to Israel, which will control all matters but education. New Palestine will pay for water and taxes. In addition, Arabs and Jews will be barred from buying houses from each other, and no new settlements will be constructed in Jerusalem but it will maintain the status of a sacred site.

Gaza is also included in the new plan. For example, Egypt will lease land to New Palestine in the border areas for the construction of Gaza airport, factories, plants, as well as for trade and agriculture. Accommodation of Palestinians in these areas will be prohibited. Rental payments will be agreed between the intermediary countries, Egypt and Palestine.

The US, EU and Gulf Arab exporting countries will support new projects for the Palestinian state financially, providing over $30 billion over five years to implement national infrastructure projects in Palestine. However, the budget will also include the cost of expanding Jewish settlements. Twenty percent of budget expenditures will be covered by the US, 10% by the EU and 70% by Arab countries. This amount will be divided based on Arab oil revenues.

According to the plan, the new Palestinian state will not have an army. Police armed with light weapons will be the only institutions providing safety and security. In the event of external interference in Israeli-Palestinian relations, a corresponding agreement will be signed, giving Israel a right to protect Palestine and obliging Palestinians to pay Israel for such protection.

Armed groups operating in the Palestinian territories, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad, will have to surrender all their weapons. Until the establishment of a new Palestinian government, Hamas members and representatives of the organization in Palestinian government institutions will continue to get salaries from donor countries. The borders of the Gaza Strip will be open to entry and exit, same as on the west coast of the Jordan River.

During the year after the deal is concluded, free and fair elections will be held in the new Palestinian government, whose members can represent any segments of the population. All Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons will be released over the next three years a year after the elections.

The plan provides for the construction of a seaport and an airport in the new Palestinian state. Until the end of construction, Palestinians will use Israeli ports. Same as in other friendly countries, the border between Israel and New Palestine will remain open to the free passage of citizens and goods of both countries.

According to the plan, if the Palestinian side, Hamas or PLO, does not adopt the plan, then the US will stop financing the Palestinian state and will not allow other countries to do the same. Or, if PLO adopts the deal, while Hamas or Islamic Jihad rejects it, then the leaders of these organisations will be held responsible for consequences. The US will support Israel’s attacks on these groups in the next war between Israel and Gaza. If Israel rejects the agreement, the US pledges to stop financing the Jewish state.

Palestine says no

The plan has not been announced officially yet. However, not only radical groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad, but the more peaceful Palestinian administration are also opposing it. Leader of Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas, speaking at a press conference in Ramallah, said that the return of Palestinian refugees is their “sacred right”. According to him, the Palestinian people will not give up their rights recognized by the international community.

According to a survey in Palestine, three-quarters of 1,200 Palestinian respondents wish that the US abandoned the plan. About 90% of respondents do not trust in the US, 85% are confident that Israel will continue to occupy the west coast of the Jordan even after adopting the plan, 72% believe that the plan will lead to Israeli occupation of most of the west coast of the Jordan River, 83% of respondents said they did not want to lose their freedom and independence in exchange for economic advantages of the American plan, and 73% expect new sanctions against Palestine if the plan is rejected by the Palestinian side.

Meanwhile, the very essence of the plan is focused on putting pressure on Palestine, assuming in advance that it will reject it. Since February of this year, the Israeli government has suspended a monthly payment of $11.3 million, intended for families of Palestinian martyrs and convicts, and the Abbas government has not been able to pay for civil servants for some time now.

Advantages and disadvantages

The American plan to settle the Palestinian conflict differs from the previous ones by its economic attractiveness, and promises prosperity to Palestine and Israel. Thus, with a total budget of $65 billion, the plan is going to secure the Palestinian Authority $1 billion aid in cash annually over the next ten years. If the plan is abandoned, the Palestinians risk losing Western aid seriously damaging the Palestinian Authority, which has always depended on foreign aid.

US President Barack Obama's plan to settle of the Palestinian conflict was based on the borders of 1967. Donald Trump's proposal, however, can actually be a surprise for Israel. Thus, Israel can get most of the territories occupied by the Jewish state, including East Jerusalem. The scale of pro-Israeli campaign is so extensive that even the king of Saudi Arabia, Washington’s closest ally in the region, had to express his protest to the Trump administration, albeit softly.

The US position in the Middle East is very strong. Iraq, Syria, Libya and even Egypt have actually lost their former strength, which would allow them to act as an alternative force in such situations previously. The main strong and rich countries of the Gulf, although reluctantly, support the American plan, as it implies support from Washington and the powerful Jewish lobby - the only two supports of Arab monarchs facing such a strong rival as Iran. In addition, after the Khashoggi incident, the possibilities of the Saudi leadership for resisting the Kushner plan significantly narrowed.

It should be admitted that along with its advantages, the Kushner plan also has obvious disadvantages. For example, with respect to Jerusalem and other Palestinian territories, preference is given to the position of Israel, which undoubtedly causes outrage not only in Muslim countries. It is likely that other countries will not support the plan either, and the Palestinian Authority and Jordan will abandon it altogether. As a patron of Palestine and East Jerusalem, Jordan will not be a party to any project in which Jerusalem is considered the capital of Israel. This is a historical responsibility. In addition, it is unrealistic that Jordan agrees to such a risky deal, no matter how tangible the Western influence and volume of Arab investments is, since half of Jordan's population are Palestinians and there is a strong Islamist opposition in the country.

On the other hand, the implementation of the plan would only play into the hands of radical groups such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah, which support armed opposition against Israel. As well, the political career of the ardent supporter of the American plan, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is in question, since Israeli population seem to prefer another candidate during the September elections to the Knesset. Trump has another year left, but this conflict may cost him too much.