TURBULENCE IN BAGHDAD

The situation in Iraq is turbulent again. Mass protests take place in large cities of the country, including the Kurdish administration in the north. Since October 1, the protests which originated in Baghdad and swiftly spread to Basra, Nasiriah, Amara, Samawah, Hilla, Kirkuk, Tikrit and Diyalah, led to the deaths of more than 100 and injuries of more than 6 thousand people.

The general who upset Iraqis

At the end of September, when the Prime Minister of Iraq, Adil Abdul-Mahdi, fired the Commander of the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS), General Abdul-Wahab al-Saadi and appointed him to another job in the Ministry of Defense. A number of commanders of the same service were dismissed together with al-Saadi.

Although no official statement was made regarding the decision, dismissal of the general and his refusal to comply with the order led to the start of a protest movement. However, al-Saadi has managed to negotiate with the government later and agreed to move to his new post. But it was too late...

The dismissal of al-Saadi was the main cause of protests in Iraq. Five years ago, the notorious general became one of the main heroes who beat ISIS. Thanks to the success in a series of major counter-terrorism operations under his leadership, including the withdrawal of ISIS from Mosul in 2017, the prestige of CTS has grown dramatically.

ICTS was formed by the US Army and trained by American instructors. Top-level commanders of the service, including General al-Saadi, maintain close ties with the US Army. After the 2003 invasion in Iraq, the US played an instrumental role in the creation of the Iraqi army. This explains the close ties of many Iraqi commanders with the US military. In July 2019, an audio recording of the alleged conversation between one of the Iraqi commanders serving in Anbar province and an American intelligence officer, where the former informs the CIA agent of the whereabouts of the Hashd al-Shaabi forces, was made publicly available.

Remarkably, Iraqi authorities began cleaning the army from the commanders known for their proximity to the US right after the publication of the above compromising evidence. Dismissal of General al-Saadi was the last straw. But if we analyse the background of the incident, it becomes clear that the parties were ready for such an outcome of events. For example, in late August, Qeys al-Hazali, the leader of the Asa'ib al-Haq group, a member of the Hashd al-Shabi, in his interview with the Iraqi Al-Iraqiya said that because of the Iraqi government’s resistance to the US policy, anti-government protests would begin in October on social networks and on the streets.

Obviously, the authorities knew that Iraq would become yet another front of the US-Iran conflict. This was confirmed with the spread of information a few months ago on the website of the US Embassy in Iraq about the wealth of the religious leader of Iran and the subsequent attack of the embassy in May, amidst the growing tension in the Persian Gulf.

As Iran’s gateway to the Arab world, Iraq has been and remains an arena of rivalry between Iran and the United States since the first years of the invasion of the US and its allies. Historical ties between the two countries, the Shiite majority of the Iraqi population and the fact that Iran became a refuge for a number of Kurdish and Shiite political movements during the reign of Saddam Hussein played a special role in strengthening Tehran’s influence in this country. Finally, in 2014, when ISIS occupied a third of the Iraqi territory, Tehran sent weapons and instructors to Iraq way before Washington. These ties have further strengthened after the establishment of the Iraqi voluntary army known as Hashd al-Shabi.

Confrontation between the US and Iran in Iraq was expected. In 2018, when the US withdrew from the infamous nuclear deal between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany, one of the two main conditions was the demand that Tehran stop supporting armed groups in the Middle East. Iran is Iraq's largest ally in the Middle East after Lebanon. Geographically, Iraq is also Iran's gateway to the east, its connection with Syria, Lebanon and Palestine, as well as a place where millions of Iranians visit each year to pay tribute to the shrines of six of the twelve Shiite imams.

American constitution of Iraq

The current Iraqi constitution was developed in 2005, two years after the US invasion. Thus, according to the constitution, a representative of the Kurdish community of the country is elected to the post of the president of the federal state of Iraq, a Sunni becomes the chairman of the parliament, and a Shiite becomes the prime minister. This is similar to the system of separation of powers established by France in Lebanon in 1943. Thus, a Maronite Christian can be elected Lebanese president, the Sunni becomes the prime minister, and Shiite becomes the chairman of the parliament, respectively.

Although the majority of Iraqi population are Shiites, and Shiite parties received the majority of votes during the parliamentary elections, the establishment of the Iraqi government has been stretched for several months mainly due to the union of Muqtada al-Sadr, who received the largest number of votes in the 328-seat Iraqi parliament in alliance with the Iraqi communists (a total of 54 seats). It is not easy to establish a normal political system in a country that for many years has lived under a dictatorial regime that later gave way to chaos and war. Democracy needs time. Due to the complex nature of the situation in Iraq and the fact that the country is a point of interest for many countries (Iraq is among the top five countries in terms of oil and gas resources), it is very difficult to build a stable democracy there. The situation becomes even more complicated if we add ethnic separatism (Kurdish autonomy in the north), religious confrontation and very strong tribal relations to the equation.

What do the Iraqis want?

In fact, the people of Iraq fell victim to the clash of interests between the great powers. With a population of about 40 million people, Iraq is the fourth largest oil and gas country in the world: 150 billion barrels of oil and 3.744 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. In addition, Iraq is the third country after Kuwait and Saudi Arabia with the lowest cost of oil production. Currently, Iraq is the fourth largest in the world in terms of oil sales - 5 million barrels per day. However, the socio-economic situation in the country is unsatisfactory.

Over the past five years, Iraq has spent a lion's share of its income on the war with ISIS. According to official documents, however, most of the income is actually stolen. The country has a high level of unemployment and poverty, and the government is not able to restore the settlements destroyed during the war.

In addition, Iraq is suffering from the deficit of water and power supply. Last summer, the streets of Basra in the south of the country were swept by crowded protests. It’s not strange that the current slogans of protesters are similar to the ones raised last year. The people of Iraq oppose unemployment, poverty, inefficiency of public services and corruption. Iran is one of the objects harshly criticised by the protesters. Protestants burn the Iranian flag, tear down images of Iran's religious leader and demand Iran’s departure from Iraq.

Interestingly, the protests are not based on religious motives. After all, the first protests began in the Shiite regions of the country, and the Shiite leader and head of the parliamentary majority of Iraq, Muqtada al-Sadr, called on the government to resign. He also proposed holding early elections in Iraq monitored by the UN.

Ayatollah Ali Sistani, one of the most influential clergymen of Iraq, demanded that the government listen to the voices of protesters. In particular, he called on officials to fix the provision social services, create new jobs, fight corruption and punish the responsible. It is interesting though that recently Iraqi security forces neutralised a group of people planning an assassination attempt on Ayatollah Sistani in Najaf, Iraq. It is clear that there are people in Iraq who want to exacerbate the situation.

Welfare package

To meet the social demands of the protesters, the Iraqi Cabinet of Ministers adopted a decision of 17 points, including the provision of housing for 100 thousand poor citizens, monthly financial assistance package of 175 thousand Iraqi dinars (about $150) for 150 thousand unemployed for three months, allocation of 60 billion Iraqi dinars for the construction of shopping centres (45 thousand new jobs) in shopping districts of Baghdad, as well as three-month training courses for 150 thousand young people with the possibility of providing successful graduates with jobs. Also, the Iraqi Ministry of Defence has promised to ensure voluntary military service for 18–25 year old citizens. In addition, civilians and government officials who died during the protests will receive a status of martyrs with a right for their families to use the privileges appropriately. The government will also cover the medical costs regarding the treatment of wounded protestants and promised to make changes to the cabinet and fight corruption.

Resume

At the height of protests in Iraq, Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi said Iraqis must make a choice between statehood and anarchist social system. In fact, he is right – if protests continue, they will push Iraq to further chaos and war, an excessive burden for the newly formed Iraqi state.

Over the past thousand years after the reign of the Abbasids, Iraq has remained a province. Back in 1921, the British united the three provinces of the former Ottoman Empire - Baghdad, Basra and Mosul, establishing the new Kingdom of Iraq headed by King Faisal, the son of the Hijaz King Hussein. But the republican system, which remained in the shadow of the Iraqi monarchy until 1958 and authoritarianism after it, did not bring stability and prosperity to the country. The cradle of world culture is suffering a pain of tough struggle for survival. Instead of the expected dividends, the struggle of major powers for authority actually hits the people of the country rich in energy resources and having a very advantageous geographical position. Apparently, the phrase "oil smells like blood" was born in Iraq, a country suffering from severe conflicts for many years. But the situation does not look completely hopeless.