GEORGIA IS MESSY AGAIN

Over the past two years, the ruling party Georgian Dream has been going through the most difficult period in its short history. The party crisis has triggered the opposition to intensify activities. Most experts interpret the existing situation as a crisis of confidence in the party and its leader by a large segment of Georgian population.

Contradictions in Georgian 'dreams'

As a result of mass demonstrations in spring and summer of 2018, Georgian Prime Minister Georgy Kvirikashvili resigned on June 13. In fact, his resignation was a result of complicated, even conflictual, processes that had begun several months before in the ruling party, and in Georgian politics, in general, due to disagreements between Prime Minister Kvirikashvili and billionaire Ivanishvili, who didn't feel good about Kvirikashvili's methods of resolving a number of personnel and domestic policy matters.

The return of the founder of the party Bidzina Ivanishvili to recover the situation has further complicated the existing problems in Georgian Dream and in the country. The growing criticism of the ruling party by opposition a few months before presidential elections, the strengthening of the position of President Georgy Margvelashvili, who had been critical of the ruling party, as well as the intensification of political opposition caused increased popular discontent with prime minister, especially amid the declining socio-economic indicators and the growth of social tension.

Yet Kvirikashvili's resignation did not help to solve the problems but only delayed them. Mamuka Bakhtadze, who replaced Kvirikashvili, is a less independent politician and does not have necessary authority both in the party and in the government. The 2018 presidential elections revealed the vulnerability of Bakhtadze's position and a significant drop in popular confidence in the Georgian Dream. The party hardly managed to secure Salome Zurabishvili's victory, while the opposition candidate Grigol Vashadze demonstrated a pretty good result thanks to his ability to unite serious opposition forces under his leadership. This current situation is indicative of a political polarisation in Georgia, which can create favourable conditions for the opposition during the 2020 parliamentary elections. In autumn of 2018, it became more or less clear that further polarisation between the two main political camps might transform into an open political conflict.

Meanwhile, the temporary lull in domestic policy was replaced by yet another crisis in the summer. This time it was the participation of a Russian delegation at the 26th General Assembly of the Interparliamentary Assembly on Orthodoxy (IAP) that triggered the protests on June 20-21, when a member of Russian State Duma, Sergey Gavrilov, sat in the parliamentary speaker's chair trying to address the forum participants. Protesters demanded the immediate expulsion of Russian deputies from Georgia. In response, Georgian authorities limited themselves only to the resignation of parliamentary speaker Irakli Kobakhidze. On the other hand, rather rough actions taken by the Interior Minister Georgy Gakharia to prevent the escalation of conflict attracted attention from the supporters of Georgian Dream. The authorities eventually relented, agreeing to amend the Electoral Code.

Leader of the ruling party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, announced the changes to the Electoral Code, which would be based on a proportional system and zero electoral barrier. This could mean that amidst the falling popularity, Georgian Dream could only expect to retain power thanks to a coalition with smaller parties. Increasing chances for smaller parties to get into parliament will be accompanied by the inevitable fragmentation of the opposition electorate.

By the beginning of autumn, rumours about the strengthening positions of Gakharia and Bakhtadze's early resignation spread so widely that Prime Minister Mamuka Bakhtadze resigned on September 2 after preliminary discussions at the headquarters of the Georgian Dream on the government reshuffle. He was the 4^th prime minister from the ruling party who resigned since 2012, i.e. when Georgian Dream came to power. As expected, Georgy Gakharia became the new prime minister. He supports the tough line of actions and has experience in bringing the most effective solutions to critical situations. Few could have imagined then that he would be needed so soon...

On November 14, the Georgian parliament could not accept the constitutional amendments to the Electoral Code, which the authorities promised the protesters after the Gavrilov Night, as the majority of voters voted against the changes. Such a friendly and consolidated vote of deputies was regarded as a previously agreed move. Several prominent figures of the ruling party in the parliament left the party having disagreed with the results of the vote. Subsequently, a number of representatives of the conservative party left the parliamentary majority, which greatly weakened the ruling coalition.

Protests intensified

After some time, the protest movement began to expand in Tbilisi. As in the summer, the driving force behind the protests was not the opposition but the so-called non-systemic opposition. Opposition takes the advantage of the protests to put forward political slogans about the resignation of the government, the creation of a transitional government and the holding of early parliamentary elections. The situation in the country is still under control, and the authorities severely suppress and block any attempts to destabilise the situation. Since November 17, protesters began to use chains and locks to block the entrances to government offices. First protests began in front of the parliament. Before that, the protesters locked the doors of the General Prosecutor's Office. Since the opposition could not block the access to the courtyard of the government, it had to look for an alternative. They hung several locks just on the fence.

As an experienced crisis manager, George Gakharia seems to be a practically irreplaceable figure for the authorities. Special forces were used to disperse the rally in parliament, but the government does not want to rely solely on forceful options.

Georgia and Azerbaijan

Georgia is the most important partner of Azerbaijan in terms of foreign policy and economy. Therefore, Baku is not comfortable with unstable political situation in the neighbouring country. Our countries share common strategic projects, interpersonal relations, and history. Unfortunately, the internal political uncertainty in Georgia and the struggle of major political groups for power raised tensions around the issue of demarcation of the Azerbaijani-Georgian border in the vicinity of the Keshikchidagh monastery complex (David Gareji in Georgia). Despite the availability of various formats to solve the issue at the level of relevant departments actively involved from both countries, including the delimitation commission, consultations at the level of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, etc., ardent Georgian nationalists make regular calls to "force Azerbaijan to return" the Georgian monastery complex. In addition, statements made by the Georgian president about the urgency to resolve the issue of delimitation as soon as possible fuelled such passions that even the former speaker of the Georgian parliament Irakli Kobakhidze described them as "improvisation, which ultimately aggravated the situation."

During his term as the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Georgy Gakharia have made rather sharp statements against attempts to sow discord between Georgians and Azerbaijanis. After having been elected as Prime Minister, Gakharia made his first official visit to Baku in October 2019 and made the following statement: "Georgia and Azerbaijan will always find the right words and ways to solve existing problems."

In confirmation of these words, upon returning to Tbilisi and commenting on the results of his meetings and negotiations with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, the Georgian Prime Minister said: "We had an absolutely open conversation about current problems. I can say that from tomorrow on the territories of the church complex will open to the Georgian clergy and, accordingly, we should make serious progress in this direction gradually."

Perhaps someone thought that taking advantage of internal problems in Georgia could seriously spoil bilateral relations. How wrong they are! Pragmatism and the desire to prevent a break in geopolitical links between Azerbaijan and Georgia did their job. No matter how events develop in a neighbouring country, no matter who is in power in Georgia, everyone understands well that the cost of peace and prosperity in Georgia is identical to the cost of Azerbaijani-Georgian relations.