CHINESE DRAGON IN THE MIDDLE EAST

On December 27, Russia, Iran and China plan to conduct joint military exercises in the Persian Gulf. Military leaders of Iran and China have already held discussions on this issue. In fact, this is nothing more than a demonstration of the power of Russia, China and Iran before the United States and its allies in the Persian Gulf.

China's interests in the Middle East are not limited only to Iran or the countries of the so-called "anti-Western front". In early December, at the King Faisal naval base in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia), China and Saudi Arabia held joint military exercises code-named Blue Sword-2019. In other words, China's Middle East policy is not associative, as it was during the Cold War era — the country is developing close cooperation on all fronts.

In fact, it is not the first time that the Chinese "dragon" demonstrates its interest in the Middle East. During the 1956 Suez crisis, China supported the government of Gamal Abdel Nasser, although Israel was one of the first countries, which recognised the sovereignty of China. In the following years, when Israel sided with the "Western Front" and China supported the anti-imperialist policy, relations between the two countries became worse.

The expansion of China into the Middle East took place later, after the Cold War, although its first glimpses were noticeable even then. For example, China was one of the first countries to arm Afghan mujahedeen during the Soviet military invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.

The outbreak of the 1980Iran-Iraq war boosted both global competition and the weapons market including China. Moreover, the sharp rise in oil prices since the 1970s has increased the interest of global powers in the Middle East. Eventually, the region, which has long been the arena of the struggle of world powers for geopolitical superiority, has also attracted China. The fact is that the Uyghur issue is the weakest side of China, and in order to prevent possible outbursts of emotions in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR), the Celestial Empire is ready to get closer to the Muslim world. In fact, the Uyghur issue is one of the cornerstones of the active policy of China in the Middle East.

Dragon flaps its wings over the Middle East

China's large-scale expansion into the Middle East began after the collapse of the USSR, a decade of chaos and war and the events of 9/11, which triggered Washington to declare a global war on terror. In 2004, Chinese leader Hu Jintao paid an official visit to Egypt to attend a meeting of the League of Arab States (LAS), where he met with representatives of 22 member states of the organization.

During the Cairo summit, the participants declared four fundamental principles of the so-called "new partnership" in Arab-Chinese relations, including the development of political relations based on mutual respect, establishment of economic relations for joint economic development and progress, deepening of cultural ties and the preservation of peace and, finally, cooperation in a number of areas of international politics.

Shortly after the summit, on September 14, 2004, the first Sino-Arab Cooperation Forum was held. Later, similar meetings took place in Beijing and Bahrain. After 2004, China's investment in the Middle East increased annually by an average of 12%. Up to now, half of China's crude oil imports come from the Middle Eastern countries. Currently, China's annual trade turnover with Arab countries is $300 billion, and it is planned to triple this amount in the next ten years.

Iran is one of China's main partners in the Middle East. While one of the reasons for such close cooperation is Iran's strategic location along the Silk Road, another equally significant reason is Iran's rich energy resources and tensions with the United States. China also benefits from this, since Iran, which does not have access to Western markets, is interested in selling oil to China at affordable prices. That is why the current level of trade between China and Iran reaches $50 billion (only $12 billion in 1997), despite the harsh terms of the embargo imposed on Iran.

Friend of Iran and Israel

During the official visit to Iran in 2016, Chinese President Xi Jinping signed 17 agreements with Iran. Thus, the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement is designed for 25 years and provides for an increase in trade turnover between the two countries to $600 billion in ten years. Moreover, China is committed to invest $400 billion in various areas of the Iranian economy. To implement the agreement, covering almost all areas of cooperation between Iran and China, the parties developed a road map or a joint plan of actions (JPA). Recently, the Chief of the General Staff of Iranian Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri, said that Iran's religious leader had already approved the JPA signed with China.

According to the document, during the first five years, China, along with the creation of new production capacities in the Iran's oil and gas fields, will invest $280 billion in the petrochemical sector of Iran. Another $120 billion will be invested in Iran's transport and manufacturing sectors. Also, it is planned that the Great Silk Road will pass through the territory of Iran. In particular, one of the railway lines will pass through the city of Tabriz, which means the upgrade of Iran's railway lines, including high-speed railways.

Also, under the terms of JPA, Chinese companies participating in tenders in the oil, gas and petrochemical sectors of Iran will have certain privileges. For example, China will be able to buy Iranian oil, gas and petrochemicals at a 12-percent discount.

One of the key aspects of the deal is military cooperation, which involves the deployment of 5,000 Chinese troops in Iran to protect Chinese investments.

Incidentally, Iran is not the only country to conclude such a large-scale deal with Beijing. During the visit of the Prime Minister of Iraq to China in September 2019, the parties signed eight bilateral agreements. The total value of the deal, which covers a series of projects in the field of economics, culture, technical cooperation, transport, communications, construction, energy and infrastructure, is worth billions of dollars. Both countries agreed to increase the trade turnover between Iraq and China to $500 billion over the next ten years. According to Baghdad and Beijing, the parties also discussed the issue of increasing the current volume  of Iraqi oil (800 thousand bpd) supplied to China.

But that is not all. China has been expanding into the Middle East for several years now, especially since the tenure of the incumbent leader Xi Jinping (2013). Currently, Beijing continues to cooperate with more than hundred countries as part of the One Belt and One Way policy. If ten years ago the annual volume of Chinese investments in the Middle East was only $1 billion, today this indicator has grown 23 times and continues to grow!

This year, China invested $1 billion in Turkey alone. In the first half of 2019, the volume of Chinese investment in Israel reached $3.2 billion. According to American experts, in the coming years, the size of Chinese investment in Israel, especially in technologies, will exceed the volume of the US investment. In addition, thanks to the intensification of China in Egypt shortly after Abdullah al-Sisi's coming to power, China established control over literally the entire communication network of this African country. In the same way, China has been investing billions of dollars in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.

Thanks to Chinese investment in poor countries of Africa, the country implements new global projects in the field of transport and communication infrastructures of these countries. In some of them, the Chinese have managed to bring the forces closer to China to power.

Transition of soft power to hard power

By the way, if earlier China expanded into new regions only through economic projects and investments, now the time has come to demonstrate its military power. For example, the joint Chinese-Russian military manoeuvers in the Mediterranean in 2015 were, in essence, nothing more than a demonstration of China's readiness to dispatch its military to wherever it considers the protection of its interests necessary.

In the same year, China set up its first foreign military base in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (Djibouti), which handles 65% of the world's trade cargo flows, including maritime cargo from the Southeast Asia, the Far East, Australia, India and the Persian Gulf to the Suez Canal and further to the Mediterranean Sea.

It seems that to protect its multibillion investment, China will now have new military bases in the Middle East, especially since the unstable situation in the region makes the need for military force inevitable.

Among other things, one of the serious problems of China remains the Uighur issue. Two years ago, Beijing sent one of its army generals to Damascus to offer support to Bashar al-Assad. Even then, the Arab media wrote about China's intention to send an elite military unit to Syria. Landing Chinese marines on the Syrian territory through the Mediterranean Sea seemed a perfectly feasible plan. Of course, the main reason for Chinese military assistance to Bashar al-Assad is the Uyghur issue, given that Beijing does not openly support anyone in the Middle East and at the same time has close ties with all the fronts of the region.

According to unofficial data, there are more than 15 thousand Uighurs in the opposition-controlled Syrian province of Idlib, who predominantly follow radical Islam, are united around the Islamic Party of Turkestan and are the third largest military force in the province. China is worried that Uighurs may one day return to Xinjiang. Despite the assurances of the Chinese government that the so-called "political re-education camps" located on the territory of XUAR helped "cleanse the Uyghurs of radicalism," these institutions caused a great deal of concern throughout the world. In other words, the ethnic and religious conflict in Xinjiang could have serious consequences for China. As noted above, one of the main reasons for the Chinese expansion into the Middle East is the Uyghur factor. That is why the main criticism of China regarding the Uighur issue comes from the Western media and governments, and not the Muslim states.

As a matter of fact, large projects have always been the cause of political disasters. For example, just ten days after the signing of economic agreements between China and Iraq, the latter faced events that are still shaking the country. Over the past three years, Iran has been shaken by mass protests at least twice. It is easy to fall into a trap of conspiracy theories on this issue, but the evidence of the past years shows that the "traditional rulers" of the region do not welcome the activation of China and Russia in the Middle East. This means that we can expect an increase in the number of conflicts in the next few years in the region, which will remain a battleground between the major powers of the world.