SEA OF DISCORD

Political situation in the Eastern Mediterranean has been particularly difficult in recent years. The growing military presence of the United States, Russia, France and other world powers in the region aggravates the ongoing conflicts in Syria and Palestine, difficult military and political situation in Libya and political crisis in Lebanon. The discovery of rich gas deposits off the coast of Cyprus has triggered a new conflict between Turkey, Cyprus and Greece over the ownership of these deposits urging them to set new regional mega-alliances.

Ankara and Tripoli

On December 5, the Cypriot authorities supported by Athens and the European Union filed a petition with the UN International Court of Justice in The Hague to protect their rights in the coastal zone due to Turkey’s claims to these sites.

This happened a week after the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Prime Minister of the Government of National Accord (GNA) of Libya Fayez Al-Sarraj signed a memorandum of understanding on the "delimitation of maritime jurisdictions". Ankara further submitted a number of claims to the UN stating its claims to the maritime zones and continental shelf west of the 28th meridian (south of the island of Rhodes). Thus, Turkey and Libya determined a common section of the maritime border claiming the right to prospective gas deposits in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea, one of the most active sector of the sea between Asia, Africa and Europe.

Interestingly, Ankara concluded the agreement with the Tripoli government, which is recognised by both the UN and the European Union. However, opponents of this government led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who controls most of the Libyan territory, do not recognise the agreements with Ankara or any other agreements signed by the government of Fayez Al-Sarraj. EU was forced to swallow this bitter pill and take into account that the delimitation of maritime jurisdictions between Turkey and Libya was carried out by the legitimate Libyan government. Brussels did not dare condemn the agreement explicitly, hence siding with Khalifa Haftar, and only demanded clarifications on the content of the agreement. By the way, for some reason Belgium addressed its request only to the Turkish side.

In principle, the logic of Brussels is understandable. EU unconditionally supports its two members in this issue, Cyprus and Greece, and condemns the actions of Ankara. On the other hand, Brussels cannot put too much pressure on the illegality of such an agreement, risking to question the legitimacy of the government that concluded it, namely the Al-Sarraj government. Therefore, when answering a question whether Al-Sarraj still supports the EU after the signing the MOU with Turkey, which contradicts the interests of the EU member nations, EU leadership gave a rather evasive answer. European official had to reiterate that the Libyan GNA was recognised by the European Union, and "Mr. Al-Sarraj is our partner with whom we must carry out contacts and interaction."

Al-Sarraj's involvement in the deal with Ankara seriously hinders the possibility of Brussels to exert unilateral pressure on the Turkish authorities, and sets ground for Turkish manoeuvers.

It is important to note that Fayez Al-Sarraj owes much to the existence of his government to Turkey, which provides humanitarian, military and political support for Tripoli, while the anti-Turkish Egyptian government tends to help Field Marshal Haftar, who sharply condemned the agreement between Tripoli and Ankara.

Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum

At the end of 2018, Egyptian Minister of Energy and his counterpart from Cyprus signed an agreement on the construction of an underwater gas pipeline connecting the Aphrodite offshore gas field in the Mediterranean with gas liquefaction plants in Idko and Damietta in northern Egypt. Thus, Cairo officially became a partner of Cyprus in the gas issue. On October 8, Cairo hosted a trilateral meeting between the Presidents of Egypt and Cyprus, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Nikos Anastasiadis, as well as Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. The parties particularly discussed the cooperation in the oil and gas sector. It is known that Egypt, along with Greece, Cyprus, Italy, Israel, as well as Jordan, is an active participant in the recently created regional energy organisation, the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF), which is set to prevent the drilling operations of Turkey near the coast of Cyprus.

Hence, by signing an agreement with Libya, Ankara actually drove a wedge between the forum participants, dividing them into two parts.

Waiting for Joker

As the key transit country in the Southern Gas Corridor, Turkey is turning into the main gas supplier of Europe. After the implementation of projects on the transportation of natural gas from Russia and Azerbaijan and the beginning of exploration activities between the Cyprus and Turkish coasts, Turkey has become a leading gas hub of European scale, while other countries had to take the backseat and adapt to the conditions where Turkey dominates in the emerging market.

But the current situation may end up with the appearance of a joker. Turkey is experiencing a crisis in relations with most of its neighbours in the Eastern Mediterranean and needs the support of external actors, especially for the development and transportation of natural gas discovered off the coast of Cyprus. According to some reports, Turkey had previously negotiated with Russian companies for geological exploration in the area.

Gazprom’s involvement in the development of the project will allow it to consolidate its presence in the energy market of the region and Europe as a whole, where it controls up to 37% of its gas supplies, and become a shareholder in this project with a large share of participation. Turkey, which recently completed the purchase of the Triumph Russian anti-aircraft missile system, is able to guarantee the safety of gas field development, as it can control airspace, especially in disputed areas.

The Russian gas giant has its own interest in the deal: if the member states of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum achieve an increase in supplies to Europe, this may significantly displace Gazprom's position. Remarkably, Gazprom and some other Russian companies tried to gain access to the development of gas fields in Israel, Lebanon and Cyprus at the beginning of the decade, particularly in the Levantine basin, which, according to the US Geological Survey, contains 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil and about 4 trillion cubic meters of natural gas.

At the beginning of 2012, Russian company NovaTEK, Total of France and Gazprombank of Russia submitted a joint application for the geological exploration license for one of the 12 blocks offshore in Cyprus as part of the second licensing tender. However, Cyprus did not show interest in the proposal. Also in 2016, Israel's lack of interest in Gazprom's participation in the development of its gas fields forced the Russian gas monopoly to abandon the plans.

It is assumed that both Cyprus and Israel took this step under pressure from the EU and the US. The latter are not interested in strengthening Moscow’s position in the European gas market trying to replace Russian gas in the energy balance of the EU through sources from other countries.

Thus, Russia found itself among those who cannot be interested in the implementation of plans for large-scale deliveries of Mediterranean gas to Europe. On the other hand, Gazprom is unlikely to openly participate in Turkey's plans to develop gas fields near Cyprus, as this might entail great geopolitical risks.

But for Libya, which is a traditional supplier of gas to Europe, the situation is truly threatening, since the Turkish deal may worsen conditions for the supply of its main export commodity to Europe. So, if in 2010 gas production in the country reached 16 billion cubic meters annually, in the years following the overthrow of Gaddafi, production decreased by 1.5-2 times. Accordingly, revenues from the sale of natural resources also fell sharply, which affected primarily the social life in the country.

On the other hand, according to Bloomberg, an excess of natural gas is growing in Europe, and prices have reached a 10-year low. Amidst the expected increase in gas supplies from Israel, Cyprus, Lebanon, Egypt, the situation for suppliers may be worse.

Either way, the main issue is the future price of gas and the possibility of selling it to Europe. Turkish-Cypriot contradictions are only the tip of those contradictions that underlie the emerging new gas map of the European continent.