MASKS PULLED OFF

On January 26, the Lebanese people celebrated the 100th day of the start of anti-government demonstrations in major cities of the country under the motto 'We do not trust them'. Demonstrators demand the government of technocrats, who can solve the pressing problems in the country and have no ties with the extremely corrupt Lebanese political parties. Therefore, they expressed their distrust of the new Cabinet formed under the dictation of Hezbollah.

Beginning in October 2019 as peaceful demonstrations demanding the resignation of the Saad Hariri government, which could not cope with the deep economic crisis in the country, protesters began calling on their fellow citizens for revolution. The situation has become more serious when the rallies in Beirut began taking place all over the country. T-shirts with the image of the Cuban revolutionary Che Guevara became popular among the protesters.

No pluralism in Lebanon

Lebanon became independent in 1944 but it has not been able to get rid of outside influence completely. Over the past eighty years, the Lebanese Republic has repeatedly been drawn into various kinds of internal and external conflicts. The U.S., the USSR, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, France, Syria and other countries, using their religious and political fragmentation, all these years have had a strong influence on Lebanese politics through local allies and proxies. Recently, Russia has also joined them, in particular, at the request of President Michel Aoun, who has deployed an air defense system in Syria that also covers Lebanese airspace.

Religion in Lebanon plays a huge role in all spheres of society, and even the political system is based on confessionalism. Representatives of 18 different religious movements live in the republic, but the main religions are Islam (about 60%, Sunnis and Shiites) and Christianity (about 40%, Maronites, Catholics, Orthodox, etc.). This is the only Arab country where, according to the Constitution, the president is a Maronite Christian, the prime minister is a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of the parliament is a Shiite Muslim. There are more than 100 political parties in the country, but most of them are formed according to the same confessional principle. And they also make up two competing party blocs: the pro-Syrian March 8 Coalition and the anti-Syrian March 14 Alliance.

However, such a diversity in social and political views does not mean pluralism of opinions. Party leaders have done and are doing everything to divide the people under the flags of parties or, more precisely, religions. The attempts of ordinary citizens to unite under the slogan "We are all Lebanese, despite differences in religion," have so far failed.

First signal

In the recent history of Lebanon, there have already been attempts at mass demonstrations. In 2005, the so-called Cedar Revolution took place, when a wave of discontent swept the country against the Syrian military occupation. But the protesters did not require a change in the political system of the country, which was still dominated by political leaders representing the largest religious communities. On the contrary, they were the main driving forces of the pro-Syrian and anti-Syrian actions.

In the summer of 2015, unrest in the country, which began as peaceful demonstrations demanding that garbage be removed from the streets of the capital, developed into large-scale protests against the inability of the political elite to rule the country. Lebanon has been without a president since April 2014 (current president Michelle Aoun was elected on October 31, 2016), and the parliament did not want to dissolve (instead of 2014, elections were held in 2018). Many protesters even began to doubt the leaders of their parties. This was the first signal for politicians.

However, the popular rallies of 2015 did not lead to the resignation of the government. In many ways, this became possible due to the fact that, faced with a threat against itself, the Lebanese political elite united using the divide and conquer tactics. For example, by spreading rumours that some leaders of the protest movement were paid by foreign agents. Nevertheless, those events were the start for the growth of public consciousness. Self-nominated candidates appeared - first in elections to municipal authorities, and then to parliament.

Unexpected turn of events

There are several key differences between the current protests and the protests of 2005 and 2015. As in 2015, but unlike in 2005, they are part of a genuine mass movement that was not initiated and controlled by any political party. In contrast to past speeches, representatives of almost all religious confessions take part in the current protest movement. The protesters have been demanding the resignation of the government, vowing to remain on the streets until this happens.

Currently, the protests even take place in regions where such public actions were previously considered impossible. For example, in southern Lebanon dominated by the Shiite parties of Hezbollah and Amal. Remarkably, Sunni and Shiite protesters express solidarity and support for each other.

The most important difference is that the protesters have achieved their goal. On October 29, the Cabinet of Ministers led by Saad Hariri announced resignation.

The rallies faded out for a while in anticipation of parliamentary decisions. The wait has taken three months. On January 21, new Prime Minister Hassan Diab (Sunni) announced that he had formed a team that "would work to meet the demands of the protesters." However, people returned to the streets again, calling the new government “monochrome” (green) and completely dependent on Hezbollah.

Pessimistic forecasts

However, for the first time the new government reflects the reality that has long prevailed in Lebanon. Indeed, over the past decade and a half, Hezbollah has gradually removed all the obstacles to become the sole dominant power in the country. The party has long subjugated the Lebanese economy, the military and intelligence spheres. In 2016, Hezbollah’s longtime ally, General Michel Aoun, became the president of Lebanon. In the May 2018 elections, Hezbollah and its allies won 60% of the seats in parliament and 19 of 30 portfolios in the government.

Formally, however, the conventions were all observed: the president is a Christian, and Prime Minister Saad Hariri is a Sunni, and besides, he is trusted by the West and Saudi Arabia. This allowed the coalition government to maintain normal relations with international institutions, including financial ones, and ensured the flow of aid to the country from the USA and Europe.

Now all the formalities are set aside. The country is openly controlled by a Shiite organisation created in 1982 with the assistance of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and recognised in many countries as a terrorist organisation. This will undoubtedly have a significant negative impact on Beirut’s efforts to attract international partners and donors, without which it is unlikely to solve or at least to alleviate the acute financial and economic crisis in the country.

There are more pessimistic forecasts. Iran supports Hezbollah and views Lebanon only as an instrument of its foreign policy. It is not going to undertake serious reforms in the country. As if confirming these assumptions, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah promised bloody retaliation for the U.S. for the death of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Al-Quds brigade of Iranian special forces. "I know that he [Nasrallah] will revenge for my father," the daughter of Soleimani, Zeynab Soleimani, said.

Over the past decade, Hezbollah’s strategy in Lebanon has been to maintain stability, but stability that protects Iran’s interests. That is why the group viewed the recent protests in Lebanon as a problem that must be addressed through suppression. Hezbollah sent its militants to attack protesters in the streets, mainly in Shiite cities and villages, and increased threats against Shiite dissidents and activists.

Soleimani himself often travelled to Beirut to help quell protests. Moreover, the number one task for him was to stop the participation of Shiites in protests. He understood that any unrest could jeopardize Iran’s interests and achievements in the region.

But Soleimani is no longer alive, and the protests in which Shiites play an important role are flaring up. The situation for Hezbollah is rather complicated. On the one hand, the protest movement, which has already covered almost the entire country, can undermine its influence. But on the other hand, if they obey the demands of the protesters and allow the creation of an independent government, the government's first decision will be to demand that Hezbollah disband its military units.

Popular support is necessary

Meanwhile, the Lebanon International Support Group, co-chaired by France and the UN (the group includes representatives from the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, the USA, China, Russia, Germany, Italy, the UK and the EU), made a statement. It notes that a country can only rely on help if the government has "the ability and authority to implement a package of economic reforms."

Washington made an even harsher statement making it clear that it would increase pressure, including widespread sanctions, on Iran and its satellites in the Middle East.

These and other similar statements distributed almost every day can well be regarded as certain signs of support for the Lebanese public.