LIBYAN SOLITAIRE

The next round of talks on Libya took place on January 19 in Berlin under the leadership of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. It seems that the conference including the representatives of twelve states and governments, as well as five international organisations, can be considered at least some progress in resolving the conflict. However, the expert community does not share this optimism following the results of the Moscow meeting, which took place earlier in January, being quite sceptic about the possibility of establishing lasting peace in Libya in the near future.

The Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Libyan National Army (LNA), Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, did not directly participate in the Berlin conference, while his opponent, the Prime Minister of the Government of National Accord (GNA), recognised by the international community, Fayez Al-Sarraj, was present.

The fact that the Berlin conference did not bring any tangible results was clear even before the start of the negotiation process. Indeed, just a few hours before that, LNA closed the Libyan oil pipeline, completely halting oil exports from the seaports of the North African country.

All participants of the Berlin conference, including Turkey, signed the final declaration of the meeting, which includes 55 points. Same as in Moscow, Haftar did not sign the document. However, the Berlin declaration on Libya is nothing special, except for a few points. Thus, the signatories pledged to intensify efforts to reduce tensions and achieve a ceasefire in Libya, and also called on both parties to the conflict and the countries supporting them to ensure the withdrawal of troops, artillery and air forces. The document also emphasizes that under the auspices of the UN, technical committees will be created in Libya to monitor the ceasefire, and parties that violate the ceasefire will be subjected to an international embargo.

Undercover wars

In February 2020, the UN plans to hold another meeting in Berlin, at which four separate technical groups on economic and security issues in Libya will be created. The UN also undertakes the organisation of technical committees to ensure and monitor the cessation of hostilities. The committees will include representatives of the governments of Haftar and Sarraj - five people on each side. An international monitoring committee will meet once a month to monitor the implementation of coordinated activities in Libya.

Obviously, Haftar’s refusal to sign the final declaration in Berlin significantly reduces the importance of the document and casts doubt on its effectiveness, given that after the start of military operations to capture Tripoli in April last year, the LNA actually controls three-quarters of the country's territory.

Undoubtedly, the refusal of Field Marshal Haftar to sign the truce twice (in Moscow and Berlin) is a clear evidence of undercover wars going on in and for Libya between the powerful countries. On January 15, Turkish Minister of Defense, Hulusi Akar, made a statement about the pressure of some countries on Haftar. Later, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu listed these countries, naming Egypt, the UAE and France among them. True, Cavusoglu did not name Italy, although after meeting with the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte openly declared his government was against Turkey and Russia as actors in the negotiation process.

EU against Russia and Turkey

In fact, this approach is one of the main reasons for the ongoing crisis in Libya. Each stakeholder is trying to maximise the benefits of this rich North African country while retaining its influence. In principle, this can be understood and explained in terms of global politics. Libya is the ninth country in the world in terms of oil reserves with a daily production of 1.2 million barrels (2 million barrels in 2011) and one of the closest neighbours of Europe. In addition, Libya hosts the largest flow of refugees to Europe. Therefore, it is natural that the European Union wants to take this process under its control.

On the other hand, the EU cannot remain indifferent to the aspirations of Turkey and Russia to seize the initiative in Libya. In early January, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, explained the main reason for the growing role of Turkey and Russia in Libya by the inability of the EU to decide on a common position on this issue. "Six months ago, these two actors [Turkey and Russia] were not present in the Central Mediterranean, but today they take the lead. This is a big change on the geopolitical structure of the Mediterranean," said Borrel.

Amidst similar statements, the EU foreign ministers decided to postpone the following discussions on Libya to March this year. European leaders are already discussing the dispatch of peacekeeping forces to Libya. In this sense, the hasty organisation of the Berlin conference (only a week after the Moscow meeting) was a kind of response to Moscow. It is clear that Europe does not want to give Libya to Russia and Turkey.

In other words, had Moscow secure an agreement between Haftar and Al-Sarraj on January 13th, it would be Russia and Turkey that would determine the fate of Libya. But Moscow's plan failed at the very last moment, as Haftar left Moscow that very night and returned to Libya. According to the Arab media, Haftar took this step at the request of Egypt, because not only the future of Libya was at stake, but also the fate of large energy resources in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea.

Turkish interests

On November 27, 2019, Turkey signed two important documents with the Libyan government of Al-Sarraj: a memorandum of understanding on security and military cooperation and a memorandum of understanding on the demarcation of maritime zones in the Eastern Mediterranean. The latter actually impedes the implementation of the EastMed gas pipeline project between Israel, Greece and Cyprus, which plans to ensure the delivery of East Mediterranean gas to Europe, as it connects the borders of Turkey and Libya in the Mediterranean Sea blocking the implementation of the pipeline project.

The memorandum on the demarcation of maritime borders between Turkey and Libya has not been legalised yet, and serious problems regarding the demarcation of borders between Libya and Greece existed during the time of M. Gaddafi too. But in any case, this agreement undermines the plans of Egypt, Israel, Greece and Cyprus to isolate Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean, giving Ankara a powerful lever of political pressure on its competitors.

The memorandum on military cooperation gives Ankara a chance to take the lead in the region, as EU leaders point out in their statements. Thus, Turkey will become the guarantor of the Al-Sarraj government, which means that it will protect the above agreement on maritime zones and its interests in Libya. That is why the memorandum was approved by the Turkish parliament as soon as it was physically possible. On January 2, the Turkish parliament approved a document supporting the deployment of troops in Libya. A few days later, the first group of 35 troops was officially dispatched to Libya.

One of the main goals of Turkey is to preserve the government of Al-Sarraj, which is not so easy though. In 2014, after the overthrow of Gaddafi and just two years after the establishment of the new government in Libya, the country was split into two parts. In the west of the country, the so-called Government of National Accord headed by Fayez Al-Sarraj was created, which controls the capital of Tripoli and several nearby cities. GNA is recognised by the UN and many countries of the world as the official government of Libya.

The Libyan House of Representatives with residence in Tobruk currently controls 75% of the country, including all eastern territories, and is actually subordinate to Khalifa Haftar, who is openly supported by many European countries, as well as the United States, Russia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. For example, the French government had to admit military support for the Haftar government only after three French troops died in 2016 as a result of the crash of an LNA helicopter in Libya.

Under the Gaddafi government, Khalifa Haftar served as chief of the General Staff of Libya. During the war with Chad, he was captured and declared a traitor in Libya. In Soviet times, he was a student at the M. V. Frunze Military Academy. In 1991, with the assistance of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States released Haftar from captivity and moved him to America. For almost ten years, he had lived near the headquarters of the CIA. Immediately after the uprising in Libya in 2011, he returned to the country and took part in the overthrow of Gaddafi, but later remained aloof from political processes.

After the Libyan split in 2014, Field Marshal Haftar reappeared on the scene, making the first, albeit unsuccessful, attempt of military coup. But this did not prevent Haftar from consolidating forces in the eastern regions of the country, after which in his televised address to the people he announced the launch of Operation Honour to 'save the country'. At that time, Libya was actually divided into several parts. Derna and several other areas of Libya were besieged by ISIS, and Benghazi and the surrounding area were besieged by armed groups of the Ansar al-Sharia group associated with Al Qaeda. In the south, uncontrolled militias of various local tribes operated.

Soon, Khalifa Haftar gained control of all of eastern Libya, and in 2015, the Libyan House of Representatives approved his candidacy for the post of Supreme Commander of the Libyan Armed Forces. A year later, Haftar captured Benghazi - the second largest city and economic centre of the country. In 2016, LNA regained control of the major oil-producing cities of Libya - Sidra, Ras al-Anuf, Bergu and Ajabi, and in 2017 - over Derna. At the same time, Haftar is accused of war crimes, torture of opponents, illegal arrests and other illegal actions.

Haftar's army launched an offensive on Tripoli in April 2019, but was never able to capture the city. Naturally, without the support of Turkey and Qatar, the Sarraj government will not be able to resist the LNA for a long time. Therefore, Turkey and Russia could not succeed in reconciling the warring parties of the Libyan conflict. It seems that the Berlin Conference also failed to secure lasting peace. Now it is clear to everyone that ceasefire and ceasefire negotiations under the auspices of the UN mean that the Sarraj government remains in power (therefore, Turkey is strengthening its position at the negotiating table), and the Mediterranean Treaty is in force. By the way, in Moscow, Haftar objected precisely to this treaty.

At this stage, Ankara needs to defend Al-Sarraj and his government until at least a ceasefire is reached and peace negotiations begin. It will also depend on relations with Russia. According to some statements, the LNA army now includes about two thousand fighters of the Wagner Group, including 25 military pilots. Russia is simultaneously trying to fulfil a two-step approach: to strengthen its influence in Libya through Haftar and force Turkey to compromise in Syria. As we can see, the alignment on the geopolitical board is not so simple.