APOCALYPSE NOW?

The outbreak of coronavirus in China continues to hit the headlines of world media outlets. Current situation resembles events depicted in a number of Hollywood blockbusters on the epidemic of viruses and biological weapons, which turn people into zombies and prepare the world for apocalypse. There are films with a happy-ending, where the human race somehow defeats the epidemic and celebrates victory. Hoping for the best, the humankind is doing its best to prevent the spread of the coronavirus before spring.

Bad news

Statistical data on infected people changes daily. According to WHO, as of February 11, the number of infected people reached 40,554 with 40,235 of the infected in mainland China. Outside of China, 319 cases of infection were recorded. China's National Health Commission reported 42,638 confirmed cases. Taking into account the infected in all countries, the overall number reaches 43,103 people, according to the South China Morning Post.

1,018 people already died, including two outside of mainland China.

Remarkably, the number of the coronavirus victims has exceeded the death rate from SARS in China in 2002-2003 (774 people in total around the world).

This time the outbreak of pneumonia was recorded in China at the end of December 2019. Key symptoms of the disease include fever, coughing, difficulty in breathing. The risk of complications is especially high among the elderly with the age of the deceased ranging from 48 to 89 years.

Situation in Azerbaijan

As soon as the disturbing news went viral (pun intended), Azerbaijan's flag carrier AZAL suspended the flights between Baku and Beijing. It is assumed to resume the flights on March 8 though. But before that, all the citizens of Azerbaijan were evacuated from China, including through the Turkish military. In the framework of the order signed by the Minister of Health Ogtay Shiraliyev "On strengthening preventive measures against the new coronavirus nCoV-2019", equipment diagnosing the disease was delivered to the country. With its help, it became possible to check if a virus is suspected. A special medical institution has been established for the temporary stay of people entering Azerbaijan with the suspicion of the presence of 2019-nCoV. At all points through which people arriving by road, rail, sea and air transport, the Ministry of Health and the State Customs Committee installed thermal imagers to measure body temperature at a distance. According to the doctor of the Central Customs Hospital Nargiz Karimova, the first examination of people entering Azerbaijan is carried out right upon arrival. If the body temperature exceeds 37.2 degrees, the person is re-checked with an interval of three minutes.

The Ministry of Health is working with other state institutions, as well as with the heads of hygiene and epidemiology centres in cities and regions of Azerbaijan through the exchange of information and organisation of necessary events. According to specialist Jalal Aliyev, an emergency plan has been prepared. The Institute of Pulmonary Diseases also created chambers in case of detection of patients with coronavirus, and appropriate orders were given to the anti-plague station. As of February 11, there is one Azerbaijani citizen in the department of infectious diseases of the Clinical Medical Centre. He arrived from a Chinese city where the coronavirus has not been registered. Fortunately, he did not have any serious health problems, and will remain in the clinic until the end of quarantine. Other nationals of Azerbaijan travelling from China stayed in the clinic until February 12.

Afag Aliyeva, Deputy Director of the Republican Centre for Hygiene and Epidemiology, believes that although coronavirus cases have not been reported in Azerbaijan, citizens should take precautions. "The virus is transmitted through food and air. That is why, in cases of fever and flu-like symptoms, you should immediately consult your doctor and take laboratory tests. To reduce the risk of infection, wash your hands more often, avoid close contact with infected people, and do not touch your mouth, nose, and eyes with unwashed hands. Properly washed hands reduce the risk of contracting any infection, including coronavirus. You should avoid coughing and sneezing without a handkerchief or napkin, after which they need to be thrown out and your hands washed again," Aliyeva said.

Virus package?

What about the parcels from China? Perhaps this is the most urgent issue for Azerbaijani citizens. People continue to make orders, although many Chinese plants are on idle because of the announced quarantine. But before making a purchase from famous Chinese sites, many potential buyers first contact the sellers to find out if they can ship the ordered packages. Some buyers are still cautious preferring to refrain from purchases being afraid that they can bring in a deadly disease as a 'bonus'.

The Internet community is teeming with numerous memes. One of them is based on the cartoon series The Simpsons, which is famous for its alleged predictions on the most significant events of recent world history. This time, the fans of the series drew attention to Marge in Chains, the 21st episode of the fourth season aired in May 1993 about parcels from Osaka, Japan that brought flu to Springfield, CA. According to one of the plot lines of the episode, many Springfield residents ordered juicers made in Japan. One of the workers of the Japanese plant suffering from the flu sneezes into the box to be shipped to the U.S. "Not exactly, but the Simpsons seem to have again predicted an outbreak of a deadly virus," users shared on Twitter.

Seriously though the flagship post operator of Azerbaijan, Azərpoçt LLC, claims that there is no danger of coronavirus entering Azerbaijan via mail parcels from China. All goods arriving the country in postal parcels are checked at customs points, and the risk of infection is thus extremely low. In general, the number of parcels sent to Azerbaijan from China is relatively small and does not exceed an average of 20-30 per day. Yet WHO made a comment on this issue as well: when receiving parcels and letters from China, it is impossible to become infected with a new coronavirus. According to recent studies, coronaviruses do not live long outside the body, so there is no risk of infection, the organisation explained.

Wholesalers cry, travel agencies are waiting

There are other aspects affected by the spread of coronavirus. China is a key global supplier of components for the production of industrial and consumer goods (especially electronics), which accounts for about a fifth of all global deliveries and about 40% in the region. Since many Chinese workers are on mandatory leave because of the virus, large wholesale traders in Azerbaijan cannot import goods from China. "We often visit China for goods at least three times a year. The spring-summer season is approaching. If we do not import goods from China by that time, we will suffer from huge losses. We now have to look for alternative suppliers. It will take time and money," one of the owners of a toyshop at the Sadarak wholesale market said. It is clear that it will be easier for large and protected Azerbaijani buyers of Chinese goods to survive this crisis than for small and medium-sized businesses.

On the other hand, the trips of Chinese tourists to Azerbaijan were cancelled or postponed for an indefinite period, including reservations for February and March. According to Kanan Hanifayev of the Association of Travel Agencies of Azerbaijan, this will cause significant damage to Azerbaijani tourism: "Trips to and from China are suspended for some time. The tourists had to return vacation packages. Both Azerbaijani and Chinese airlines refund flights without penalties."

Situation in other countries

There is both good and bad news. Let's start with the bad one: the virus has managed to get into 28 countries within a month. And the good news is that as of February 11, the virus stopped spreading to new countries. Due to the outbreak of disease, about 300 companies from China, including Xiaomi, had to request the banks for a loan to mitigate the consequences of malfunctions. The total amount of loans exceeds $8 billion.

At the same time, the outbreak of a new coronavirus in China has already caused almost global panic. WHO called this an emergency, but some experts believe the epidemic is far-fetched. Mortality rate of the coronavirus is 2–3%, which is several times less compared to other dangerous coronaviruses, international experts say. As for the scale of the outbreak, they do not call it an epidemic, claiming that the numbers are small even in relation to the population of Wuhan. By the way, the governments of many countries have tested manipulations with information on viruses and deliberate escalation of hysteria repeatedly. For example, the U.S. once announced the start of pseudo-fight against the Ebola virus in West Africa.

Who is the winner?

But if so, pharmaceutical companies are the obvious beneficiaries and 'customers' of the ongoing hysteria, claims the Russian newspaper Версия. In 2009, a similar situation was around the spread of the so-called swine flu, which then killed only a few dozen people and made it possible for the Swiss company Roche to launch a massive advertising campaign of its own drug Tamiflu declared as the only remedy against the flu. Remarkably, Roche was also supported by WHO, which recommended the drug. According to experts, Roche's revenues from the sale of the 'miracle drug' reached almost $1 billion. All the hype around swine flu increased the company's revenues by 200-300%, Версия writes. Apparently, we will hear about new developments around the treatment of the novel Chinese virus in the near future.

Of course, everybody is free to have individual opinion on the disease in the current information flow. Is it a terrible disease or a well-thought move to bring through certain aspects of world and financial policy? Yet it's better to be on the safe side. Necessary hygiene and preventive measures to will come in handy to protect from the disease.