ARMY PURGE v3.0

Situation in the Armenian army becomes dominant in the political life of the country once again. Nikol Pashinyan held a meeting after the news about deaths of Armenian soldiers—13 cases in non-combat conditions since the beginning of 2020. Army has always been a hot topic, especially in a warring country.

A number of high ranking military officials have already been dismissed after preliminary investigation. Following the meeting and on the proposal of Prime Minister Pashinyan, Armenian President Armen Sargsyan signed a decree on dismissing Arthur Baghdasaryan, the head of Military Police of the Armenian Ministry of Defense. He also signed a decree on dismissing Aleksan Aleksanyan, the head of Moral and Psychological Support Department of the Armed Forces of Armenia.

These facts are enough to prove that Armenia occupied Karabakh, as the majority of soldiers died in Karabakh, in the occupied lands of Azerbaijan, although at the Munich Security Conference, Pashinyan said that "there are no Armenian troops in Karabakh." If the deaths of soldiers in Nagorno-Karabakh caused a series of dismissals in the Armenian Ministry of Defense, comments are unnecessary.

Military or prison laws?

Armenians prefer not to touch this uncomfortable question. But the status of soldiers from Armenia in the occupied Azerbaijani lands is not the only delicate circumstance. Against the backdrop of such an impressive series of soldier deaths, talk about hazing, that there are “blacks” and “whites” in the Armenian armed forces, about the skirmishes between “Karabakh” and “Yerevan” got a different price and different reading. Especially when the military prosecutor’s office considers the death of the soldiers to be suicide, and their relatives talk about the murder and the coffin with the body of the killed soldier is carried in protest to Yerevan. And the Minister of Defense, David Tonoyan, has to accept the deputation of relatives and hardly resolve the situation. It got to the point that Nikol Pashinyan from the rostrum of the parliament was forced to admit the existence of a “criminal subculture” in society, including in the army, and gave an example after which it is not even clear whether you need to laugh or cry. According to Pashinyan, “some of our servicemen consider it offensive if someone else’s is washed in the washing machine along with their laundry.” In fact, there is something to be terrified of.

Here, of course, Armenian experts should be reminded that nothing corrupts the army as much as an aggressive war and looting. In the early nineties, Armenian armed forces were engaged in plundering the seized Azerbaijani lands along with brutal ethnic cleansing. Incidentally, the incumbent military leaders of Armenia are from among the field commanders of that war.

Rumours about the prison laws in the Armenian army, bullied and extorted soldiers and so on emerged at the end of the 2000s. After Seyran Ohanyan, former commander of one of the battalions of the infamous 366th regiment and accomplice of the Khojaly genocide, became the Minister of Defence and stated that he would not tolerate any negative comment about the Armenian army, the flow of negative comments seized indeed. But whether the army has become more orderly and disciplined is an open question. Anyway, in the 2010s, soldiers killed by their mates as a result of hazing were recorded as victims of “ceasefire violation” by Azerbaijan.

Clan wars

However, Nikol Pashinyan does not seem concerned about this very criminal subculture and the deaths of soldiers as a result of hazing. Tragic incidents for him is an occasion to begin the purge in the army, for the third time. And not so much to improve the situation in the army as to avoid the risk of a classic military coup and remove even the most powerful and dangerous rivals.

It needs a little retrospective. The army is not supposed to intervene in politics. But Armenia has its own rules. The first President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan was ousted in 1997-1998 with the close participation of Armenian Minister of Defense Vazgen Sargsyan (in 1999 he will be the victim of a parliamentary attack). It was the army, or rather, the army units thrown from Karabakh, that were the main active force in the shooting of protesters in the streets of Yerevan on March 1, 2008, claiming the lives of ten people. Finally, Nikol Pashinyan, understands the role the soldiers and officers of the Armenian peacekeeping brigade played in the success of his own “barbecue revolution,” which joined the protesters at the decisive moment.

But such a position of "peacekeepers" is more an exception than a rule. The army elite in Armenia consisted and consists largely of representatives of the ousted Karabakh clan. As soon as he came to power, Pashinyan launched the first attack on the top army officials, i.e. Army Purge v1.0, accusing several former and current senior army officials of involvement in the events of March 1, 2008. Even the then acting Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Yuri Khachaturov, could not escape allegations. But Pashinyan failed to bring the case to its logical conclusion, to the court that is.

This was followed by Army Purge v2.0—a new attack on generals, this time under the pretense of the fight against corruption. The most high-profile episode here was the arrest of General Manvel Grigoryan with a demonstration of his chic mansions, a private zoo, gold pistols and stolen property, including an ambulance, a large number of underwear, cans with stew, toilet paper and even a funeral wreath (!) supposed to be handed over to soldiers. But the whole process ended with nothing: Pashinyan failed to bring the case to court again, as the defenders of Grigoryan have managed to release the infamous general from custody. Armenian officers accuse Pashinyan of creating too nervous a situation in the army. Either way, the second attack on the generals was also unsuccessful. Moreover, Nikol Pashinyan failed to solve the issue of feeding the soldiers and providing them with underwear and personal hygiene items.

And now Nikol Pashinyan begins the next army purge, version 3.0. But now he has to act in a different situation. His relations with local generals are tense; Pashinyan is no longer popular among them. The Karabakh clan is almost openly prepping for a rebellion. Finally, Pashinyan seriously spoiled Yerevan’s relations with Moscow, given that the army in Armenia has traditionally been considered a pro-Russian bastion. Although is trying to benefit from the existing situation in the army, it is also possible that the Armenian society supports the generals but not him. Indeed, amidst the army scandal, Pashinyan is accused of creating the atmosphere of hatred in Armenia, which also affected the army. Plus, Pashinyan may also be accused of the deaths of soldiers in the army, as he has been the prime minister of the country for almost two years now. In a word, the chances of success of the next attack on the generals are even less, and the risk of direct military rebellion is much greater.

Pashinyan’s next campaign on the military certainly will not improve the situation in the army and will not increase its combat effectiveness. Armenia largely lags behind Azerbaijan in military ratings. Given the ongoing conflict with Azerbaijan and the unconstructive position of Yerevan in the negotiations, the cost he is going to pay in the ongoing situation may become different.