RED LINE

On June 4, the Government of National Accord (GNA) of Libya liberated the outskirts of Tripoli from the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by General Khalifa Haftar and advance to the east of the country. This further exacerbated the Libyan crisis. As a result, on June 6, General Haftar went to Cairo and signed the Cairo Declaration calling for a ceasefire in Libya together with Egyptian President Abdul-Fattah al-Sisi. On the same day, GNA announced the beginning of Operation Path to Victory aimed at liberating the city of Sirte on the Mediterranean coast of Libya and the city of Jufra in the centre of the country. GNA stated that the operation is in the interests of Libya and will continue until both cities are free. The leader of GNA and the current Prime Minister of Libya, Fayez al-Sarraj later visited Ankara to meet with Turkish President R. Erdogan and announced the continuation of the operation.

Red line for Libya

In response to the actions of Ankara and Tripoli, Egypt began to draw a large military contingent, including tanks and planes, to the border with Libya. On June 20, Egyptian President al-Sisi visited the Matruh military base on the border with Libya to participate in the parade. He stated there that "Sirte and Jufra are the red line (for Egypt, R+)." He also said that if necessary, the Egyptian army will begin military operations both domestically and abroad and is ready to arm and train Libyan tribes.

Al-Sisi was immediately supported by Saudi Arabia. The statement issued by the Kingdom’s Foreign Ministry says that Egypt’s security is an integral part of the security of Saudi Arabia and the entire Arab people, and that Egypt has the right to protect its borders and people from radicals, terrorists and their supporters in the region.

Russia and France also supported the call of the President of Egypt for a ceasefire. During a meeting with the President of Tunisia on June 22, French President Emmanuel Macron criticised Turkey’s support for GNA, declaring Turkish actions in Libya unacceptable. Macron also rebuked Turkey for transferring militants from Syria to Libya. According to the French president, this further extends the Libyan conflict and claims the lives of many immigrants who attempt to swim the Mediterranean to reach Europe. Along with Turkey, Macron also criticised the role of Russian mercenaries in prolonging the war in Libya.

Incidentally, the main reason that deteriorated Turkish-French relations was the recent incident involving ships of the two countries off the coast of Libya. On June 10, the French frigate Courbet as part of a NATO mission tried to inspect a Turkish cargo ship, flying under a Tanzanian flag and approaching the Libyan coast, on suspicion of transporting weapons to Libya. However, two frigates of the Turkish Navy intervened, taking the French ship on radar target three times. After the incident, the French authorities complained to NATO, and the Secretary General of the Alliance instructed to investigate the issue. In turn, the Turkish side stated that a NATO ally does not have a right to search on their ships. This event further intensified the tension between Ankara and Paris, both of which have been on completely opposed positions from the first days of the Libyan conflict.

UN also reacted to rising tensions around Libya. A representative of the UN Secretary General said that war is “the last thing Libya needs right now.”

Al-Sarraj called al-Sisi’s statement “interference in the internal affairs of the country and a declaration of war.” He also said that his government was ready to respond to a military invasion.

Why Sirte and Jufra are significant

According to the UN Census for 2018, the population of Sirte is 126,000, including 10,000 foreign workers. Currently, the city is on the front line between the forces of GNA and General Haftar. As mentioned above, the presidents of Egypt and France declared Sirte a “red line”. The al-Sisi government even stated that the Egyptian army could invade Libya because of Sirte and Jufra.

Sirte is better known as the birthplace of the topped out Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. The city became popular in early 2015 again, when ISIS troops captured the city and remained there for almost two years. Only at the end of 2016, thanks to the air support of the alliance of Western countries, Sirte was cleared of ISIS. However, the most important feature of Sirte is its economic status. About 80% of Libyan oil fields are located here. Sirte is also the main hub for exporting Libyan oil. In other words, the one who controls the city controls the Libyan oil.

Located south of Sirte, in the centre of the country, is the city of Jufra, which is also a strategically important settlement in Libya. It has a military airfield and hosts the country's main transport routes. The capture of Jufra and Sirte by GNA will mean the transfer of a strategically important part of the country to the control of the al-Sarraj government. Moreover, this control can subsequently extend to the east coast of Libya, towards Egypt.

In addition, Jufra is also a host to Russian armed forces in Libya. The loss of this city means the loss of the position of Haftar and the LNA.

Conflicting parties

The ongoing events in Libya are a typical example of a proxy war. For six years, the country has been living in a dual power regime. The west of Libya is under the control of GNA headquartered in Tripoli. Also recognised by the United Nations, GNA is a government where political Islamists and the representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood movement (supported by Turkey and Qatar) prevail.

In accordance with the agreement reached between the governments of Turkey and Libya (GNA) in November 2019, Turkey provides the Sarraj government with weapons, equipment and military instructors. It is assumed that the strengthening of GNA troops in recent months has become possible directly thanks to the military support of Ankara. Qatar provides financial support to GNA and ensures the transfer of jihadist groups from Syria to Libya.

The east of the country is controlled by the government of the House of Representatives of Libya operating from the city of Tobruk. General Khalifa Haftar leads the government’s armed forces, the Libyan National Army (LNA). The government is supported by Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, France and Russia.

It is reported that LNA also enjoys the support of about 1200-1400 fighters of the Russian PMC Wagner, including pilots, as well as French troops, militants from Sudan and other African countries. In addition, Egypt, the UAE, a number of European countries, and Russia sell LNA weapons and ammunition.

It is claimed that France has provided military support to Libya since the beginning of the 2011 revolution. Paris denied these allegations so far. However, after the attack of a military helicopter in Libya in 2016 with three French troops onboard, discussions about France’s military presence in Libya have resumed. The French government blames the Islamic groups in the country for the attack.

What worries al-Sisi and his allies

Libya is a rich Mediterranean oil and gas power located a stone's throw from Europe. That is why it is so attractive for major centres of power. Before the revolution, Libya was an oil paradise exporting more than 2 million barrels of oil per day. Therefore, the countries now advocating a “triumph of justice” in Libya put an eye on the rich natural deposits of this Arab country and will try by all means to chop off a piece from the Libyan pie - the bigger, the better! But it’s not about the oil only.

For al-Sisi, who visited a military base on the border with Libya on June 20 and instructed to prepare for a military operation, the current Islamist government of Libya (GNA) poses a serious threat. Ihwans (Muslim Brotherhood), which make up the core of the Sarraj government, are a direct threat to Abdul-Fattah al-Sisi and his government. The Egyptian military is concerned with the consolidation of Islamists in Tunisia and the fact that they are still in power in Libya. Al-Sisi himself came to power in Egypt in 2013 because he could overthrow the then Muslim Brotherhood government. But now the latter is strengthening its political position in Tunisia and Libya. Moreover, after the last revolution in Algeria, the influence of political Islamists is growing in this country. All this worries not only al-Sisi, but also the French government, as well as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which take an ideologically hostile position towards the Muslim Brotherhood.

On the other hand, Islamist attempts to gain a foothold in the eastern part of Libya mean the opening of a new front for Egypt, which over the past six years has already suffered heavy losses in the fight against ISIS-related terrorist groups such as Bait al-Maqdis on the Sinai Peninsula. By the way, there are many Egyptians among the militants of these groups.

Secondly, Egypt is concerned with the strengthening of the North African vector of the Turkish foreign policy. The Islamist movement Ennahdha currently in power in Tunisia and led by Rached Ghannouchi clearly sympathises with Turkey. Ghannouchi does not hide his proximity with Ankara. In other words, the ongoing can be called the growing influence of Turkey on the Mediterranean. In addition, the agreement on the demarcation of maritime borders between the governments of Sarraj and Erdogan in November 2019 actually let Turkey to use its decisive influence on the production and export of energy resources from the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea to the world market.

Apparently, the Libyan conflict has become a conflict of interest between the states waging a classical proxy war. If the Cairo ceasefire agreement does not become effective in the coming days, that is – if GNA continues to attack Sirte, a serious global crisis in Libya cannot be avoided.

Clearly, an open declaration of war on Turkey would be an extremely rash and risky move for Egypt. However, given the seriousness of the current situation for Cairo, the al-Sisi government, with the support of the Arab coalition and European allies, may decide to invade Libya. Perhaps the next step will be the corresponding decision of the League of Arab States (LAS) or the African Union. By the way, the LAS meeting convened at the suggestion of Egypt was postponed for technical reasons. However, such a decision can be made at any time, which will exacerbate the conflict further.

The only optimal option for Libya seems to be the decision of the parties to sit at the negotiating table to achieve a truce. But negotiations also mean mutual concessions and compromises, which neither side is ready for.