CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS IN GEORGIA

The adoption of constitutional amendments by the Georgian parliament are focused on elections to the highest legislative body using the new electoral system, which is going to become a new milestone in the political life of Georgia. But will the Georgian political class succeed in implementing the electoral reform and will it help reduce the intensity of the inter-party struggle?

New mixed election scheme

Amendments to the Georgian Constitution assume holding of parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2020 under a new mixed scheme. Out of 150 deputies of the parliament, 120 will be elected by the proportional system, 30 - by the majority one. The changes also suggest a decrease in the electoral threshold for parties from 5% to 1%, while for political blocs the percentage barrier will correspond to the number of parties in the bloc. The winning party will have the right to form a government only if it gains at least 40% of the votes according to the proportional system.

Remarkably, the political party will be allowed to vote even if it has been able to collect 5,000 signatures of supporters. Thus, the barrier of pre-election support was reduced by 20,000 signatures. Another noteworthy innovation is that the parties that with at least 15,000 signatures collected in the first round of the 2018 elections are exempt from the collection of signatures.

The new election model is a product of agreement reached on March 8 by the ruling Georgian Dream Party (GDP) and the opposition thanks to mediation of the US Embassy and the EU Delegation in Tbilisi. By and large, it was the Western countries that actively contributed to the negotiations that started in December 2019 between the Georgian authorities and the opposition. The US and the EU have expressed serious concerns about the development of inter-party confrontation in the country, which is considered the most pro-Western link in the South Caucasus. There were good reasons for such concern, including the failure in previous discussions of the legislative initiative, which assumed complete abolition of the majority system.

The March agreement introduced a modified mixed election system and, at the same time, put an end to political persecution and problems associated with the release of political prisoners. Initially the authorities insisted that the second paragraph of the agreement was practically unreasonable, since there were no political prisoners in the country. However, the opposition considered the former mayor of Tbilisi, Gigi Ugulava, a political prisoner, who was charged with embezzling budget funds and arrested. Other political prisoners include the former defense minister Irakli Okruashvili accused of organising an attempt to seize the parliament building, a major shareholder of the opposition television channel Mtavari Archi, Giorgi Rurua, who was arrested on charges of illegally acquiring and carrying firearms.

However, the authorities soon agreed to concessions. In May, there was a real threat that the discussion of the constitutional amendments would be disrupted due to the problem of political prisoners. Therefore, Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili pardoned Ugulava and Okruashvili. She had to make such a decision under obvious pressure from the West. However, the third political prisoner, Rurua, is still under arrest and the investigation is ongoing. Remarkably, Rurua’s release has become of crucial importance for the final adoption of constitutional amendments.

United National Movement (UNM), one of the largest opposition forces in Georgia founded by the former president Mikhail Saakashvili, boycotted the process of discussions. Previously, UNM actively insisted on the introduction of a new proportional electoral system. This time however UNM agreed to endorse the constitutional amendments should Rurua is released. There was a risk that parliamentary discussions on constitutional amendments fail. Another influential opposition party, European Georgia (EG), also demanded the authorities to fulfil the terms of the March agreement in full. EG did not agree to support the bill without the release of Rurua either.

According to the leaders of EG, represented by 19 deputies in the Georgian parliament, the party did not allow the ruling majority to fail the new electoral initiative largely supported by the opposition. Until the last moment, the third round of parliamentary discussions on constitutional amendments remained in question because EG warned to fail the vote during the final review, since it voted for the bill in the first and second readings. The votes from GDP (95 deputies) would not be enough for the success of the election initiative, as the required threshold is 112 deputies.

Thus, it was largely the position of EG that gave a green light for the new election system. But does this guarantee that the political process in Georgia will proceed in the future without tough positions of the main political players, often bordering on uncompromising?

Internal and external forces

Constitutional amendments on the eve of the 2020 parliamentary elections were supported by almost all political forces in Georgia. For opposition, it is a chance to put an end to GDP’s rule through a predominantly proportional electoral system, which is more consistent in terms of demonstrating the political potential of specific parties. The ruling party expects that the new mixed system makes it possible to mobilise its electorate more effectively, especially considering the social discontent that is more tangible compared to the period of parliamentary elections in 2018.

The deteriorating socio-economic situation and the lack of significant progress on Georgia’s integration into the Euro-Atlantic space are the main obstacles of the incumbent government of Georgian Dream. Remarkably, the Georgian political elite has almost complete consensus on Euro-Atlantic integration. The differences are visible in tactical approaches of the main Georgian forces to ensure Georgia’s entry into the political and economic system of the West. They range from radical ideas of UNM and EG to more pragmatic ones, which try to take into account the Russian factor.

By the way, the decision of the Georgian parliament received a resounding response from the West. As mentioned above, it was the US and the EU that in many ways encouraged the Georgian authorities to go for constitutional amendments on the electoral system of the most pro-Western state of the South Caucasus. Obviously, the West has primarily helped the Georgian opposition in return for considerable preferences from it following the elections. In fact, Washington and Brussels once again made it clear to the Georgian Dream that they did not enjoy the backstage mechanism for managing local political processes orchestrated by the founder and leader of the ruling party, oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili.

Certainly, Ivanishvili is interested in maximising the effects of the local political reset due to the growing external pressure, the consolidation of opposition forces (at least on the election issue) and, no less important, an unattractive socio-economic background because of the coronavirus pandemic. That is why Ivanishvili refused the long-standing election scheme he had long supported (100 deputies on party lists plus 50 deputies elected in majoritarian districts). However, GDP insisted on negotiations with the opposition, albeit on a new one, but again on a mixed voting system, bargaining with UNM and EG for rejecting the idea of introducing a fully proportional system. Thanks to this, Ivanishvili’s party has been able to reserve enough room for political manoeuvring during the election period.

At the same time, the chances of Ivanishvili’s opponents to succeed are not so small. After all, the goal of the opposition now is not to push GDP out of the political scene but to limit its influence and to significantly narrow its power potential. These chances are more obvious given the relentless, watchful eye of the West, which periodically makes it clear that it does not accept the scale of the real political influence of Georgia’s richest man.

Parliamentary elections under the new electoral scheme are scheduled for October 31, but the coronavirus may change these plans. Given the likelihood of a second wave of the epidemic, Georgian politicians do not exclude that the election may be postponed to better days.