BORDER OF DISCORD

Territorial disputes between India and China deserve a special attention in the large list of ethnic, territorial, confessional and other conflicts. Unlike many other conflicts, they involve the two largest states of the planet. Both nations possess the largest emerging world markets, the largest human resources on the planet, and nuclear weapons. Imagine what could happen to the region, and indeed to the whole planet, if the conflict intensifies.

Restless Himalayas

The current round of tension between India and China took place on June 15, when Indian soldiers clashed with the Chinese ones in the valley of the Galvan River in the east of the Ladakh region of India more than 4300 m above sea level.

A high ridge extends along the Galvan River, which divides the disputed territory controlled by India and China. Along the valley is the Daulat Beg Oldie road, the most important route for India providing the Indian troops in the region with the necessary products and equipment. Indians view any chance for the Chinese military to enter the route as a direct threat to the safety of the highway.

For India, a military presence in this area is yet another powerful reason demonstrating to neighbours its military-political domination in the region and declaring its claims to all the northern territories. On the other hand, by controlling the area, China is able to control Indian claims to the disputed Aksai Chin plateau. In fact, India lost control over this territory with an area of 518 sq. kilometres in 1962 after the defeat in the Indo-Chinese war. Therefore, China began to actively develop the region. For example, China constructed the Highway 219, which is strategically important and connects Tibet with the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.

Current tension may be related to Chinese plans to implement the Sino-Pakistan Economic Corridor project west of the Daulat Beg Oldie road. It covers another controversial region Gilgit-Baltistan, where China's line of de facto control is adjacent to Pakistan and India.

New Delhi claims that China has begun to consolidate troops in this region trying to go deeper into the disputed area. Moreover, India considers all these areas to be its own, albeit occupied by China and Pakistan. Therefore, India views any action in this territory, including road construction, illegal.

Meanwhile, the international law does not limit China, Pakistan and India in the controlled territories and provides for the settlement of all disputes between the countries through bilateral diplomacy.

Competition for routes

Experts believe that the tension in Sino-Indian relations can be explained by the intensified rivalry for the implementation of two major transport routes: Belt and Road Initiative of China and the North-South project, in which India plays an instrumental role as one of the main starting points of the route.

The North-South project envisages the use of the above-mentioned territories, which India considers to be its own. For China, the same area is part of the southern section of the Belt and Road Initiative. Both China and Pakistan are interested in developing territories that they consider to be their own and recognise each other's rights to them. New Delhi is worried because it believes  the northern neighbours are building roads, airports, dams and other infrastructure facilities on this territory without taking into account the interests of India, especially India’s legal right to these lands.

On August 5, 2019, to further accentuate its claims to these territories, the Indian government decided to abolish the state of Jammu and Kashmir. According to the newly introduced bill, the state is divided into two union territories - Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. At the same time, the region of Aksai Chin was included, in absentia, into the Ladakh region.

Obviously, neither Pakistan nor China approved the decision. They believe it is contrary to the principles adopted for the settlement of the Kashmir problem. At the same time, Delhi’s actions urged Islamabad to intensify activities within the so-called northern territories. At the end of 2019, the government of Pakistan led by Prime Minister Imran Khan gave permission to China to build a large dam in the disputed Kashmir region, which was strongly condemned by India.

“We have consistently conveyed our protest and shared concerns with both China and Pakistan on all such projects in the Indian territories under Pakistan’s illegal occupation,” Sri Anurag Srivastava, spokesman for the Indian Ministry of External Affairs said.

Beijing rejected the Indian protest. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lijian Zhao called the dam mutually beneficial with win-win potential. “China’s position on the issue of Kashmir is consistent. China and Pakistan conduct economic cooperation to promote economic development and improve the welfare of the local population,” Zhao said.

It is known that the Pakistani port of Gwadar in the Arabian Sea, constructed and equipped by China, is planned to be the final delivery point for Chinese goods along the Sino-Pakistan economic corridor. In fact, all projects in the north of the country are designed to facilitate the delivery of Chinese goods to this port.

Although New Delhi has long opposed the Belt and Road Initiative because of its own projects in disputed areas, including Gilgit-Baltistan, it cannot change the course of events.

Unable to directly influence the implementation of the Sino-Pakistani initiative, India yet continues the construction of the Chabahar port on the Iranian coast of the Arabian Sea. Being the only Iranian port on the Arabian Sea, the port is designed to ship cargo from India to Iran and further along the North-South corridor to European countries and vice versa.

In contrast to Sino-Pakistani transport and economic cooperation, India is trying to advance the Indo-Iranian transport and economic cooperation. However, the project is subject to serious opposition from the US. Demonstrating its readiness to support Delhi in confrontation with Beijing, Washington, however, does not approve of the development of close ties with Tehran.

Nevertheless, India shipped the first batch of containers from the Chabahar port in March 2020. It took a total of seven days to ship the commodities from Chabahar in Iran to the final destination in Afghanistan. For comparison, the traditional route from the Bandar Abbas port of Iran usually takes from three to four days.

In addition to Iran’s connection with Afghanistan, Central Asia, Russia and, ultimately, Europe, Chabahar is also a key Iranian port in the North-South transport route system.

Sino-Indian rivalry and interests of Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan is the only country in the region that takes an active part in the implementation of both projects - Belt and Road Initiative and the North-South Corridor. Oddly enough, the rivalry between China and India only serves the interests of Baku.

The Pakistani or southern direction of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative does not compete with the middle route covering Azerbaijan. Therefore, the projects will not affect the volume and intensity of transportation of goods from China and in the opposite direction through Azerbaijani territory. At the same time, intensive cargo transportation by China is stimulating India to intensify its own transport schemes, primarily the North-South Corridor.

According to statistical data, transit traffic in both directions is growing. In May 2020, President Ilham Aliyev said that Azerbaijan and Russia completed the implementation of all infrastructure projects related to the North-South transport corridor. Currently, the main works are carried out on Iranian territory only.

The project involves the connection of the railways of Azerbaijan, Iran and Russia. At the first stage, it is planned to transport 5 million tons of goods annually along the North-South corridor, with the gradual increase of this capacity to more than 10 million tons in the future.

Meanwhile, Indian diplomats accredited in Azerbaijan noted that India attaches great importance to the North-South corridor in terms of strengthening transport links and expanding trade with Eurasian countries, including Azerbaijan. At the same time, they suggested that the North-South corridor from Mumbai to Moscow via Baku and Bandar Abbas or the Chabahar port in Iran would be more efficient economically and 40% shorter than the existing maritime route.

As to the development of the middle segment of the Belt and Road Initiative, experts believe that the volume of traffic along the Trans-Caspian corridor, which is part of the middle route, will constantly grow. So, in 2020, China plans to send at least 150 trains from Xian to Europe via Azerbaijan and Turkey.

In April 2020, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway proved its ability to ship heavy kilometer-long trains. Turkey sent a 940-meter container train with goods from local companies to consumers in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan via BTK. This opens up new horizons for other participants.

Nevertheless, Sino-Indian border problems complicate the international situation. Given the global situation, Azerbaijan is worried about the threat of destabilisation of existing situation in such an explosive region. As an incumbent chairman of the Non-Aligned Movement, including both India and Pakistan, Azerbaijan backs the resolution of all the disutes based on the existing international law and the priorities set in the Bandung Declaration.

Speaking at the 18th Summit of the Heads of State and Government of the Non-Aligned Movement in Baku on October 25, 2019, President Aliyev stated that the member states “must intensify efforts for universal compliance with the norms and principles of international law. In this context, there is a great need for reforms in the UN. Forcible change of borders, violation of the territorial integrity of countries, as well as interference with internal affairs are unacceptable.”

Just before the conference in Baku, Chinese President Xi Jinping made an informal visit to India. Following the visit, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the "beginning of a new era" in relations between the two countries. "We must hold the rudder and steer the course of China-India relations, ... inject a strong endogenous impetus into bilateral relations, and work together to realize the great rejuvenation of our two great civilisations," Mr. Xi said in response.

Let us hope that common sense and commitment to the above statements will prevent the deepening of the conflict between China and India, contrary to numerous historical precedents of the past, and will restore relative yet steady peace in the region.