ALLIANCE OF RIVALS

On August 21, in the last decade of the summer, the opposing sides of the Libyan conflict announced a ceasefire, which raised hopes for an early end to the protracted war and influenced the positions of the current actors. Thus, the Western media reasonably characterised the ceasefire as strengthening the role of the US and Germany in Libya.

Both sides to the conflict - Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli and the House of Representatives in Tobruk - reported a ceasefire. In respective statements, they called on their own military units to suspend hostilities in the country.

At the same time, it is suggested to ensure the disarmament of the cities of Sirte and Al-Jufra, where the troops of both sides have been concentrated since June 2020. It is also expected to sign a security agreement between the armed forces and hold presidential and parliamentary elections in March 2021. In addition, the ceasefire statement contains a clause on the lifting of restrictions on oil production in the country. As a matter of fact, the latter decision is already in action and allows the troops of General Khalifa Haftar to export oil from Libya.

New players

This is not the first ceasefire agreement in Libya. Similar agreements were reached in January 2020 in Moscow and a week later in Berlin. However, none of them have been implemented. Now the situation is different, which indicates the involvement of more influential players in the Libyan conflict.

Turkey’s involvement in the conflict with Greece, Egypt and France over the development of the eastern Mediterranean Sea played an ambiguous role in the ongoing Libyan crisis. Initially, the Western media reported on secret weapons and technical support of Libya by Turkey. The incident off the coast of Libya in July this year between French and Turkish warships was even discussed at a separate NATO meeting. The NATO Council did not take any decision against Turkey then, but the tension around the country increased.

The ceasefire on August 21 marked a turning point in this regard. In fact, the decision on the ceasefire agreement was not agreed with Turkey. Ankara had been silent for the first few days, but then the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced that a ceasefire was possible only if Sirte and Al-Jufra are captured. However, the statement had already been declared officially and both sides agreed to curtail hostilities, disarm Sirte and Al-Jufra and, most importantly, withdraw foreign troops from the country. Finally, the agreement was hastily backed by Cairo, one of Ankara's main military rivals in Libya. The EU stated that the ceasefire raised hopes for an early resolution of the conflict, urging the parties to stop external interference. All this indicated the emergence of new players in Libya.

After the ceasefire, processes in Libya began to accelerate. On September 7, peace talks in Libya resumed in the Moroccan city of Buznika. Similar negotiations began in the Swiss city of Montreux. According to media reports, "significant progress" has been made. The statement of the UN Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) called on both sides "appreciate the opportunity to end long-standing differences."

Now it is planned to hold joint parliamentary and presidential elections in Libya, form a government of national unity for an 18-month transition period and hold elections under a constitution agreed by both sides of the conflict.

Unexpected resignation

Meanwhile, amid the negotiations on Libya in Switzerland and Morocco, protests against incumbent Libyan governments began in the country. The population took to the streets, protesting against high prices, poor socioeconomic conditions, and demanding improved security conditions. The authorities used force against protesters in Tripoli and Tobruk. On September 14, the House of Representatives announced the resignation of the government. Then, on September 17, the Prime Minister of the Government of National Accord Fayez Al-Sarraj, known for his close ties with Turkey, announced his resignation with full transfer of powers by the end of October.

Ankara's attitude to Sarraj’s decision was restrained. “We are saddened by this decision, but sooner or later rebel General Haftar will be defeated,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.

In turn, after the news of Sarraj's resignation, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu told reporters that he had a conversation with Sarraj's deputy. According to the minister, the head of GNA will resign only if both sides take part in elections on the basis of a mutual agreement.

Ankara's reaction shows that Turkey does not intend to yield its positions in Libya to the West. Therefore, Ankara is now trying to seize the initiative by playing its own cards.

Alliance with Moscow and other players?

Remarkably, in parallel with the news of Al-Sarraj's resignation, the Turkish Foreign Minister said that he had agreed on a ceasefire in Libya with Moscow. This was announced immediately after the talks in Ankara between the Russian and Turkish delegations on Libya. Both sides underlined the inevitability of joint actions, as the European countries, the US, Egypt and the UAE are actually in the same camp as opponents of Turkey's Libyan policy. Therefore, joint actions of Turkey with Russia are mutually beneficial, or the last resort for Turkey to save its face in the current situation.

At the same time, Turkey is trying to find a common language with the rival sides of the Libyan conflict, using their weaknesses. A good example was the meeting between the representatives of the Turkish and Egyptian special services in the second half of September. The beginning of secret negotiations between Turkey and Egypt on Libya and in general on the current situation in the Mediterranean Sea can be considered a serious political and diplomatic attack by Ankara in order to split the ranks of its opponents. President Erdogan was the first to announce the secret negotiations between Egypt and Turkey. At the same time, M. Cavusoglu said that Egypt respects Ankara's regional interests, but admitted that for a final agreement with Egypt it is necessary to settle the current relations, which worsened after the overthrow of the former Egyptian government of Mohammed Morsi and the consequences of those events.

Obviously, Turkey is trying to reach a mutual agreement with Egypt as one of the main stakeholders, given that the country is also a direct neighbor of Libya and has significant influence over General Haftar. Egypt is also interested in agreement with a small number of participants. Although in the current situation the interests of Egypt and Turkey are diametrically different, a bilateral agreement between Cairo and Ankara, which now has a serious impact on the government in Tripoli, would be beneficial to Egypt.

It is highly unlikely that Egypt, which is suffering from serious economic problems and heavily dependent on foreign aid, will so easily abandon allies, but the Al-Sisi government still hopes to reach a joint agreement with Turkey on Libya.

But the opposite side also demonstrates its active involvement in the process. On October 5, the UN and Germany will organise a video-conference in North Africa on the ceasefire in Libya, which will be attended by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, as well as the heads of the Libyan governments.

The rich reserves of oil and gas in this North African country is not the only object of attraction for major powers. Libya also has an advantageous geographical location being very close to Europe. Obviously, each of these powers wants to play a role in the country's future. However, too many stakeholders negatively affect the resolution of the conflict. Interestingly, Russia and Turkey, which are on opposite sides of the Syrian conflict, are now drawing closer together in Libya, while Europe is confronting its traditional ally, Turkey. At the moment, it is very difficult to predict who ultimately wins in this difficult struggle for interests.