WAITING FOR THE 61st ROUND

Greek and Turkish navy is on high alert in the Mediterranean. Unscheduled military exercises were conducted in the waters between Crete and Cyprus, more like a show of strength. France also announced that it is "temporarily strengthening" its military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean. The UAE sent several F-16s to Crete.

According to Agence France-Presse, Greece announced its determination to go to the largest military spending in two decades due to the growing tension in the region. In addition to solid investments in the military industry, the Greek government intends to strengthen its naval forces by acquiring four frigates in addition to the four existing ones, as well as 18 French-made Rafale aircraft and other equipment. An additional 15,000 people will be called up for military service.

Turkey warned Greece of retaliation for any attack on its research vessels and accused France of colonial manners. The French president is no less categorical, stating that Ankara is "no longer a partner" in light of its behavior in the Mediterranean and Libya.

The beginning of autumn turned out to be so hot for the countries of the region. The events of recent weeks show that the tension has not subsided and a way out of the difficult situation has not yet been found.

While tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean are not new, and both NATO allies – Greece and Turkey have been on the brink of war at least three times since the 1970s on a number of issues, the current conflict is different. Long-term disputes about the status of sea and air borders, the ownership of the islands in the Aegean Sea, the fate of Cyprus boil down to a single yet strong knot  connected with the ownership of promising oil and gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean. In addition, the problem of refugees striving to Europe through Turkey and Greece intensified this year.

Almost all regional countries, as well as many countries outside the region, are somehow involved in the conflict. It threatens to bubble into something more ambitious conflict together with the migration crisis in Europe.

They can't agree

The number of controversial issues in relationships of these countries has only increased over the years.

Problems with the ownership of some Aegean islands (about 3,000 in total) often led to a serious confrontation and even threatened to develop into a real clash. For example, this could have happened in January 1996 for two small uninhabited islets of Immiya (in Greek), or Kardak (in Turkish).

Turkey and Greece have not yet resolved issues over the length of territorial waters, continental shelves and national airspace in the Aegean Sea.

According to the norms of international law, the delimitation of maritime boundaries between neighboring countries, where maritime areas intersect or converge, should be carried out by interstate agreements. There is no such agreement between the two countries.

In addition, imperfect maritime laws, also confirmed by experts, make their interpretation different in the conflicting parties. They draw up diametrically opposite sea charts showing the extent of their continental shelf and, therefore, their exclusively economic zone.

Mediterranean island of Cyprus was effectively divided in 1963 when armed clashes broke out there between the Greek and Turkish communities. In 1974, in response to the actions of the "black colonels" regime, the Turkish army landed on the island, which led to its division: into the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus recognised only by Turkey, and the Republic of Cyprus (RK), which received international recognition.

Turkey also believes that Greece does not comply with the terms of the 1923 Lausanne Treaty and the 1947 Treaty of Paris on the demilitarised status of the islands in the Aegean Sea, as it continues to keep the armed forces there. However, Greece responds by saying that it is their response to the partial "occupation" of Cyprus by Turkey.

Americans can no longer afford

The two NATO allies also categorically disagree on the claims for hydrocarbon resources in the Mediterranean, citing different interpretations of the length of their continental shelves. These disputes arose back in 1974, when oil was discovered off the Greek island of Thassos, which could mean that there are other deposits in the Aegean Sea.

The discovery over the past decade of large natural gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean has prompted the countries of the region to jointly develop them. In January 2019, Israel, Egypt, Greece, RK, Jordan, Italy and the Palestinian Authority created the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum without inviting Turkey.

In January 2020, Greece, Israel and Cyprus signed an agreement to build the 1,900 km EastMed subsea pipeline that will connect gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean with European markets via Greece and Italy.

Moreover, according to experts, the laying of pipes through the territory of Turkey would be cheaper and easier technologically.

It is quite obvious that the events will not stop Turkey. It demonstrates by all means that the efforts of the above countries to leave Turkey without a share in the region’s oil and gas reserves is in vain. For example, when the Italian drilling ship ENI Saipem approached the waters of Cyprus in early 2018, several Turkish warships blocked the movement of Saipem. The vessel was recalled, and the planned work in these places by another oil company, ExxonMobil, was also temporarily canceled.

Turkey does not allow anyone to carry out works in the waters to which it also has the right. Yet it is examining the seabed for the presence of gas fields. This provoked the latest tension, when on August 10 a Turkish research vessel, accompanied by a small navy squadron, began geological exploration in the disputed Mediterranean area. Greece responded by sending its warships to the site, which led to a small collision.

In past crises, hostilities have been successfully curtailed with the US mediation. But at the moment this is unrealistic. Turkey's relations with the United States are very strained, including due to different approaches to resolving the Syrian problem. Disagreements within NATO also prevent the organization from being a credible mediator in disputes between its members.

Migration crisis

Problems between Turkey and Greece added to the migration crisis, which again broke out on the borders of Europe.

Turkey has long accused the EU of not fulfilling its part of the 2016 agreement. In part Turkey is probably right. Negotiations on a visa-free regime for Turks in the EU have stalled. Negotiations on Turkey's accession to the EU are no longer underway. Nor is it possible to revive the negotiations on the reform of the EU Customs Union. But most of all, the Turkish government is irritated by the fact that the promised 6 billion euros for refugee assistance until 2022 is paid too slowly.

Until recently, before the beginning of 2020, Turkey fulfilled all its obligations. Moreover, according to the Turkish government, much more than the expected EU aid (about 40 billion euros) has already been spent on curbing the flow of migrants to Europe. In addition, Ankara believes that over the years, the EU countries have accepted much fewer migrants than was stipulated by the agreement - only 25,000 people, while Turkey already has about 4 million refugees. In addition, due to the aggravation of the situation in northeastern Syria, a new influx of refugees is expected, and Turkey's resources are exhausted.

That is why, according to the Turkish government officials, the country has no other option but to soften its policy towards illegal immigrants who want to get to Europe.

Ankara demands a revision of the refugee agreement in order to increase financial assistance.

In addition, Turkey accused the EU of turning a blind eye to the fact that Greece, violating human rights and contrary to the agreement, stopped all asylum procedures, ceasing to accept refugees into its territory. The Turkish coast guard says it rescued more than 500 migrants "thrown into Turkish waters by the Greek military in September." This is confirmed by international human rights organizations.

Amazing year

Apparently, Brussels and the EU as a whole do not hide their sympathies to Greece. Yet the EU is trying to find a compromise. EU and Germany, as a presiding member state, face a daunting task, but their mediation efforts seem to be starting to pay off.

Turkey agreed to Germany's request to suspend exploration works near Cyprus. To mitigate the confrontation, Germany is now exploring the possibility of expanding the customs union between Turkey and the EU.

In turn, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen promised to develop a new approach to solving the migration issue. “The old asylum system in Europe no longer works,” she admitted.

And finally, Greece and Turkey agreed to hold the 61st round of talks in Istanbul in the near future. The previous 60 rounds, the last of which took place in 2016, have come to nothing. But let's see. Maybe 2020 will surprise us with something else.