13 HOURS OF POMPEO

Soon after Azerbaijan liberated its territories from the Armenian occupation, the South Caucasus has undergone serious geopolitical changes. Apparently, the region is on the eve of a new integration configuration with the active participation of Russia and Turkey. The West, particularly the United States, is trying not to lose its influence in the South Caucasus. This has been manifested recently by the visit of the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Tbilisi.

Based on new realities

Mr. Pompeo stayed in Tbilisi for 13 hours only but was able to meet with the Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili, Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia, Foreign Minister David Zalkaliani and make a number of landmark statements.

Basically, the visit was influenced by two factors. The first factor is related to the past parliamentary elections with the second round of elections taking place a few days after Pompeo's visit. According to official data, the ruling party Georgian Dream won the elections. However, the opposition declared the falsification of the voting results and refused to enter the parliament preferring to hold protest actions instead. Actually, the second round of the elections was boycotted by the opposition, which tried to attract the attention of the American SoS with a silent live chain in the centre of Tbilisi.

The opposition demands the holding of new elections but Pompeo showed, by and large, the US’s indifference to the demands. Yet he left his assistant Philippe Ricoeur in Tbilisi for a more detailed study of the position of the opposition boycotting the new parliament. But this did not have the effect expected by the latter, since the Washington administration assumes that the boycott lacks constructivism, and the opposition should enter the parliament and focus on the implementation of amendments to electoral and judicial legislation. And Mike Pompeo made that clear enough.

Other Western powers, in particular the EU and OSCE, have a similar position. They found the Georgian elections ‘competitive enough’ and ‘compliant with the fundamental freedoms’. Therefore, they do not have a reason not to recognise the outcome of the election. The West periodically expresses claims against the Dreamers and personally their leader Bidzina Ivanishvili for certain manifestations of authoritarianism and not holding ‘a tougher dialogue’ with Russia. At the same time, the West is extremely interested in maintaining political stability in Georgia. This follows from the second factor, which significantly influenced the purpose and character of Pompeo's trip to Tbilisi.

Pompeo’s visit took place at the time of significant changes in the region. One of the consequences of Azerbaijan's military victory was the actual collapse of the Armenian state, which was viewed by Western strategists as a potential stronghold of Euro-Atlantic influence in the region. Armenia, which even before the war was practically in complete military and economic dependence on Russia (even despite the pro-Western tilt of the velvet-revolutionary government of the last two and a half years), now found itself under total control of its ally. Since the second Garabagh war significantly strengthened the positions of Azerbaijan, an independent state that resists external pressure, as well as the regional positions of its ally, Turkey, Georgia has become of paramount importance for the West.

Georgia now becomes the last stronghold for the Euro-Atlantic strategists in the region. The importance of Georgia for the West also increased after Russia and Turkey began the cooperation in the South Caucasus. After all, the new status quo established after Azerbaijan's victory and Armenia's defeat determined Russia and Turkey as the key guarantors of peace in the South Caucasus. Despite Turkey’s membership in NATO, the US–the dominant link in the Alliance– understands better than others that Ankara and Moscow, rejected by the West, will jointly force the US out of the South Caucasus. Remarkably, the situation of the OSCE Minsk Group, which has been out of ‘business’ for quite a long time, is ambiguous. The US and France expressed dissatisfaction with their non-involvement in the conclusion of the trilateral agreement on Garabagh, as well as the strengthening of Turkey as one of the parties to the peacekeeping process.

Thus, it is not surprising that the US Secretary of State M. Pompeo visited Georgia at a time when the guns on the Armenian-Azerbaijani front have fallen silent. Apparently, Georgia becomes the forefront of the geopolitical confrontation in the South Caucasus, which is also confirmed by the latest moves of Washington.

Tbilisi wants more America in the region

With the expected intensification of cooperation between Georgia and the West, primarily with the United States, two important questions arise.

How far will the US go to attract Georgia closer to the orbit of the Western influence? Indeed, after the August 2008 war, which ended in Russia's recognition of the independence of the rebellious Georgian autonomies, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Western institutions actually slowed down the process of Georgia's accession to NATO and the EU primarily due to the complexities of the South Caucasian geopolitics and the undeniable Russian factor. Which modus operandi will the Western partners and allies of Georgia prefer to ensure the latter’s Euro-Atlantic integration?

In Tbilisi, Mr. Pompeo expressed his country's determination "to help Georgia deepen its Euro-Atlantic ties and strengthen its democratic institutions." In other words, we can expect Washington's more intensive efforts in Georgia. But what will be the practical content of these efforts? Will the US agree to admit Georgia to NATO as soon as possible? Can we expect the deployment of American military bases in Georgia, which has long been discussed in the world media?

Of course, Georgia’s own attitude to such prospects is also important. Following the talks with Pompeo, the Georgian leaders made it clear that Tbilisi's strategy for integration with the West is unshakable. President Zurabishvili even expressed her confidence that "there will be more America in Georgia and in the region." Prime Minister Georgi Gakharia was no less convincing: "I want to assure you: we really feel the moment to strengthen our cooperation and partnership, as well as strengthen the presence of the US in the region."

Gakharia sees concrete forms of cooperation in the deepening of ties between the US and Georgia "in defense and security, economic and democratic consolidation." At the same time, Georgian authorities expect the American assistance in restoring the territorial integrity of the country. However, is this a priority for the West? Obviously, the clash with Russia is inevitable should the ‘American assistance’ to Georgian territorial unity somehow materialises. In addition, we should admit that the conflict in Georgia was one of the reasons why the country's integration into the Euro-Atlantic space has slowed down considerably.

Obviously, Pompeo's visit to Tbilisi did not provide clear answers to all these questions. He could not, apparently, give such answers, since the rapidly changing regional situation has also affected the reaction of all the interested states. For example, it is highly likely that the White House administration changes following the recent presidential elections. This definitely assumes possible tactical adjustments in the position and activities of the US. However, the core of the US foreign policy will undoubtedly remain unchanged from the strategic point of view. This means that the struggle for Georgia between the leading world powers will definitely become one of the main subjects of South Caucasian geopolitics in the near future.