“RESIDENT OF CAMERAS” OR THE PRISONER OF CHÂTEAU D'IF

The fairly stable and predictable domestic political life in Russia suddenly speeded up at the end of January after the return of Russian blogger and opposition leader Alexei Navalny from Germany. This was followed by a series of events, including the arrest of Navalny at the Sheremetyevo airport, release of a two-hour documentary about Putin's palace, protests throughout Russia. On February 2, the court cancelled Navalny's probation, finding him guilty in the Yves Rocher case, and sentenced him to 2 years and 8 months in prison, which further exacerbated the situation.

Navalny spent almost five months in Germany, where he was treated for poisoning. According to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), a chemical warfare agent – the notorious Novichok – was found in Navalny’s blood. It is remarkable however that the seemingly internal political struggle in Russia has caused such an overwhelming geopolitical extension.

Who is Mr. Navalny?

Navalny has become quite an experienced political blogger over many years. His ‘anti-corruption investigations’ are widely known. Before the scandal with the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s alleged palace, many of them concerned the people close to Putin, as well as their children. At the same time, despite such an impressive feat, it is difficult to call Navalny an opposition politician. After all, neither him nor his close associates have any clear political program, let alone concrete proposals to reform the Russian economic and social spheres. It is also true that all of Navalny's attempts to register his own political party have been rejected by the authorities, while his Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) was closed. However, Navalny could have well developed a convincing political program during his investigations. Because the slogans against Putin, against corruption and ‘we deserve to live like in Europe’ are obviously not serious and demonstratively populist. Indeed, he raises issues that are vital and sensible for citizens, but he does not say what to do to solve them. Apparently, a simple expression of discontent is not enough; anyone claiming to be a politician is well aware of this. However, Navalny's popularity continues to grow. The Levada poll conducted in September 2020 showed that 20% of Russians support the actions of the opposition, compared with only 6% seven years ago.

Meanwhile, it is impossible to clearly answer the question of who Navalny is. For his supporters, including abroad, he is a ‘hero’, ‘a popular political leader who challenges the system’, ‘an avid oppositionist’, ‘a great politician’. The Wikipedia article on Navalny is almost larger than the one on Putin. To the surprise of many Russians, Navalny is listed among the most influential people in the world and on the Internet. Former Polish President Lech Walesa has nominated Navalny for the Nobel Peace Prize, while the Western media have compared him to the prominent Soviet dissident Andrei Sakharov. For the Kremlin, however, Navalny has for a long time been just a blogger and a ‘defendant in criminal cases’; state-run media channels have mostly remained silent about him. Putin himself does not pronounce his name publicly calling him a ‘Berlin patient’ or a ‘character’. Now the Press Secretary for the Russian President has come up with a new nickname – ‘resident of cameras’.

But the most remarkable thing about Navalny is the never-ending claims about his ties with Western intelligence services, although the level of his involvement has not been discussed much before. Recently, Navalny was officially named a figure supported and funded by ‘the powerful Western forces’, including American Internet platforms and Internet monopolies. On February 9, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said it was time to stop calling the supporters of Alexei Navalny, including Leonid Volkov, who runs the network of Navalny’s regional branches, and FBK executive director Vladimir Ashurkov, the opposition. According to Zakharova, they are ‘agents of influence’, and NATO member-states instruct them on the format of rallies. To prove her words, she said that although Volkov stated on February 4 that the protests were postponed until spring and summer, he has suddenly changed his mind after an online meeting at the Polish Permanent Delegation to the EU with EU member states, the US and UK. By the way, Volkov had earlier said that his supporters will get Navalny out of prison primarily using foreign policy methods: “...through the sanctions list, which the European and American administrations are working on already."

Geopolitical factor

It is not surprising that many Russian media outlets and the Russian segment of social networks call Navalny as a tool to weaken and contain Russia, where he and his supporters want to arrange a ‘Russian spring’ to ‘destroy’ the country completely. Indeed, it seems the sources of funding for Navalny’s projects are not clear, although he had a chance to conduct a full-fledged election campaign with campaign offices in every region of Russia. According to the so-called Russian liberal media, "over the past 10 years, Navalny has developed his seemingly trivial blog in LiveJournal into an impressive multimedia resource." They claim that his video investigations apparently involve professional producers, editors and FX specialists, using drones and 3D reconstruction. “Apart from creating a ‘cohort of disciples’ throughout the country, Navalny has also developed an organizational infrastructure for a new generation of politicians trained in various fields – from digital marketing to sociological research.” All these endeavours require considerable funds. And we yet to get a clear answer to this question.

Interestingly, Navalny has also become one of the key elements of discussions in the dialogue between Russia and the West. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, EU High Representative Josep Borrell, French President Emmanuel Macron, Swedish Foreign Minister and OSCE Chairwoman-in-Office Ann Linde, British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab and other Western politicians have condemned the arrest of Navalny and demanded his immediate release to "end the violence against participants of peaceful demonstrations."

In response to such an impressive list of serious claims, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that ‘the hysteria caused in the West by the trial of Alexei Navalny is out of proportion’ and advised ‘to mind their own problems’. Apparently, Moscow is not going to concede and raises the stakes. This became clear after the expulsion of German, Polish and Swedish diplomats from Russia due to their involvement in actions supporting Navalny. Incidentally, this happened during the visit of the EU High Representative Josep Borrell to Moscow. Moreover, during a press conference with Borrell, Lavrov called the EU an ‘unreliable partner’. Many in the West considered that Russia has demonstratively humiliated the European official, ‘depriving him of political dignity’. Interestingly, Borrell himself did not mind the statement, apparently meaning his actual confirmation of it.

The harsh rhetoric of Moscow suggests that Russia has most likely decided to capitalise on the lack of unity among the Western states, which cannot even determine its collective position on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Also, Russia is not convinced with the position of the West on Navalny’s case, given the actions of authorities during the dispersal of the ‘yellow vests’ in France or Trump's supporters in the US.

What's next?

Another decisive moment in Navalny's actions was the shift in focus to young people, including adolescents and young people under 30 tagged as the ‘shock force of changes’. They were also the main participants of protest rallies. Many of them received invitations to attend the events through social networks, instant messengers and various groups. They thought it to be a sort of hangout. However, there are perhaps those who sincerely support Navalny and his cause.

In fact, the proposal to organise the next protest action using flash-lights of smartphones, which have to be turned on at a certain time of the day outside, is also targeted at exclusively young people. Looks like a cool flashmob, doesn’t it? Especially for all those hangout hungry locked-down people. It’s like a rock concert that can make them get involved in something unusual. And it’s almost a win-win option too – cost-effective and, most importantly, extremely peaceful and legal. However, whoever is behind Navalny (if anyone at all), the decision to get teenagers involved in the protests was most likely a failure. This angered many parents, who have tried to explain to their children and grandchildren what they had to experience in the notorious 1990s, and that the songs like the famous ‘Перемен требуют наши сердца’ (Our hearts demand changes by Viktor Tsoi, R+) had been sung before too...

So what's next? Some believe that the decision to imprison Navalny will unite the opposition around him even more, instead of removing him from the Russian political spectrum. Especially if something suddenly happens to Alexei and he turns into a ‘sacred victim’ closer to the presidential elections in Russia. In such a turn of events, Navalny's case may be picked up by his wife, Yulia (a. k. a. Russian Svetlana Tikhanovskaya). Obviously, much will depend on the reaction of authorities, which is not always adequate to situation. Thus, many experts believe that it was possible to prevent the hype over Navalny if it hadn’t been for the big deal made out of his return to Russia, as well as the details of his poisoning story, insult of a veteran, and the strange statements made by a number of pro-Kremlin journalists and political scientists.

Obviously, all these events give rise to various conspiracy theories. According to one of them, there is a struggle for power within the Kremlin, with some of the political groups supporting Navalny. The other claims that Navalny is... an ‘agent of the Kremlin’, allegedly used to identify all the avid critics of authorities and to bring down protest moods before the autumn elections to the State Duma. The idea is also to set the tone for ‘healthy competition’, given that both Yabloko and the Communists become increasingly active. The latter version is indirectly confirmed by the fact that with a large portfolio of investigations, Navalny, who claims he has to work in a ‘totally unfree country’ and yet can lash out at the most prominent figures of the Russian political elite, has nevertheless had all opportunities and means to film his documentaries. After all, he could even go hard on Putin himself...

So, considering the above, can we make an assumption that the Navalny factor has polarized and politicized the Russian society? Definitely not. On the one hand, after the recent events, the number of citizens indifferent to Navalny's activities has decreased, while his supporters has become more active and even radical. But again, it is necessary to note that this group includes the active users of social networks mainly of young age and living in large cities, who do not represent all of Russia. Ask Russians if they want to see political changes, if they are interested in investigations similar to those of Navalny, if they want really working social lifts for young people, and you’ll most likely get a positive response. But their response will most likely be negative should you as them if they want to see Navalny as the new leader of Russia. And anyone who knows a little about Russia and the people inhabiting the country will tell you why the answer will be ‘no’.

Meanwhile, the truth, which is hardly ever noticeable in the media and Telegram channels, is that the hype over Navalny mainly takes place on the Internet, including various debates among experts and pieces of writing by bloggers and streamers who make money from their stories, social chats between students and office workers who have time to do this. This hype is even among young people in bright sports jackets and creative masks, who are ready to run from police for several hours in the frost. But this has nothing to do with the majority of Russians most likely dissatisfied with the current government for some reason. They are merely confused over the ongoing developments between the Kremlin and Navalny. In fact, it is their opinion and reaction to the events that matter and should be taken into account by both the authorities and the real opposition.