SIX TIMES IN EIGHT YEARS

On February 18, Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia announced his resignation. He explained his decision by the explosive situation in the country after the court decision to detain the opposition leader Nika (Nikanor) Melia from the United National Movement (UNM) party. Gakharia is the sixth prime minister of Georgia in the past eight years from the ruling Georgian Dream party. This is an absolute record in the post-Soviet space.

Gakharia follows Bakhtadze

For many observers, Gakharia's resignation came as a surprise. Meanwhile, the events of recent years indicate that any new government of the Georgian Dream inevitably risks facing the same set of problems as the previous one forced to resign. This means that the most critical question arising as soon as the next prime minister takes the post is “for how long?”. Gakharia was considered a strong prime minister. Not because he led the Ministry of Internal Affairs before his premiership, but because he could effectively cope with his opponents both in the opposition and in the government. But even he could not resist, and left the office after a year and a half.

The day before his resignation, on February 17, the Tbilisi City Court granted the petition of the prosecutor's office to alter the restraint measure against Nika Melia, secretary of the United National Movement party led by the former Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili, and arrest him.

When the court announced the decision, Melia was in his office. At the same time, the UNM office was guarded not only by activists of the party, but also by representatives of other opposition parties and movements. The situation threatened to turn into open conflict. Perhaps, the then Prime Minister Gakharia did not support the decision, while some other members of the government took a tougher stance. This was the reason for Gakharia's early resignation.

Melia was accused of organizing and leading group violence during the riots and anti-Russian actions in June 2019. Investigators have demanded the parliament to deprive Melia of parliamentary immunity. The parliament granted the petition of the prosecutor's office, after which Melia was arrested. But by the decision of the Tbilisi City Court, he was released on bail (₺30,000, which is more than $9,000), provided that he wears an electronic bracelet. These events accelerated the resignation of the Mamuka Bakhtadze government, which existed even less.

Melia was elected a member of parliament (UNM) in autumn 2020. But since he and his associates did not recognize the results of the vote and accused the government of falsification, Melia refused to participate in the work of the new parliament. Melia has repeatedly called for active actions against the authorities. At one of the protest rallies, he even demonstratively took off the bracelet that the police ordered him to wear, and threw it into the crowd of protesters.

After that, the court revised the terms of his release and increased the bail price to ₺40,000 (more than $12,000). Due to Melia’s refusal to pay the required amount, the Prosecutor General’s Office requested Melia’s arrest.

Immediately after that, on February 23, Georgian special forces detained Nika Melia.

New government but old priorities

After the resignation of Giorgi Gakharia, the ruling party decided to nominate Defense Minister and former Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili to the vacant position. Even during the previous government, it seemed that there was a separate centre of gravity formed around Garibashvili. He has a special influence and enjoys the confidence of the head of the ruling party, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili. Therefore, the former prime minister was considered a de facto backup for the current prime minister.

Back in March 2019, Mr. Garibashvili was appointed Political Secretary of the Georgian Dream party, which meant his return to “big politics” after a short absence. Before his appointment, he has worked as an advisor for the Chinese company CEFC Energy Company Limited managed by Eurasia Management (50% belongs to the Chinese, and 50% to Eurasia Invest). Shares of Eurasia Invest have been equally split between the businessman Vano Chkhartishvili and Bidzina Ivanishvili. Mr. Garibashvili actually represented the interests of Ivanishvili in this company.

Remarkably, both Gakharia and Garibashvili headed the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Georgia at different times. The first one in 2017-2019, and the second one in 2012-2013. Like Gakharia, Garibashvili is considered a hardliner. In particular, in one of his interviews, he bluntly complained about the lack of discipline in the Georgian Dream.

Many experts also associate the change of power in Georgia with the struggle of various groups of influence within the Georgian Dream. It is believed that the security forces led by the Kakhetian clan of Irakli Garibashvili won this fight. They managed to convince the remaining influential families - the Kaladze clan, the Komsomol clan and technocrats led by Irakli Kobakhidze and even Bidzina Ivanishvili's personal guard led by his former personal guard, and now the Interior Minister Vakhtang Gomelauri that the best option was Irakli Garibashvili.

We can assume that the leadership of the party, even in the new conditions, will remain committed to the tough course of the party’s founder B. Ivanishvili. Although on January 11, 2021 Ivanishvili announced his resignation from politics, the post of chairman of the Georgian Dream and the party itself, many still believe that he remains involved in the development and adoption of key decisions. Although it was the chairman of the ruling party, Irakli Kobakhidze, who presented the candidacy of Garibashvili to the parliament, many believe that the real initiator was B. Ivanishvili.

Apparently, Ivanishvili strengthens the government and the ruling team by appointing the rusted people, so called crisis managers with good organizational skills and a hard hand, especially in case of an expected rise in protest sentiments.

Remarkably, on February 22, the Georgian parliament adopted the candidacy of Irakli Garibashvili, his government and program. On the following day, Melia's detention was authorized.

Speaking in parliament with a keynote speech, Garibashvili motivated his tough position by the fact that Melia was convicted in a criminal case for his involvement in a coup. At the same time, the new prime minister made it clear that Melia was not the real chairman of the party, but is fulfilling the order of the ex-president and current chairman of UNM Mikhail Saakashvili. According to Garibashvili, UNM is almost a refuge for criminals who must be fought using the legal means. At the same time, he claims that he does not intend to interfere in justice, since he is committed to the rule of law.

Ambitions in spite of crisis

Political crisis in Georgia is coincided with an exacerbation of the socio-economic situation caused by the lockdown. Over the past year, the Georgian economy has experienced the largest recession over the past 26 years. The lockdown restrictions cause widespread discontent, leading to open protests, especially in the tourism and restaurant sectors.

Thousands of jobs were closed in the country during the year, creating a dramatic situation requiring immediate intervention. At the end of 2020, the Georgian economy declined by 6.1%. Under these conditions, the population expects urgent measures from the government to overcome the crisis.

Although the former government managed to mobilize more than $2 billion in international assistance to overcome the crisis, the effect was lower than expected. Currently, aid is directed to finance the reduced revenues to the budget, as well as to various anti-crisis measures.

Nevertheless, the new government has ambitious goals for the future, including increasing the competitiveness of Georgia in the region and in the world, strengthening the country's position as a logistics hub, structural recovery of the economy, development of business and investment environment. In addition, the authorities want to maximize the use of state resources for economic activities, including through the privatization of state property.

We will see whether the current government can cope with this task in the future, as the previous one also had ambitious goals. But unresolved political problems and serious popular discontent with the economic situation will in any case remain factors that everyone will have to deal with regardless of political preferences.