VICTIM OF HUMANITARIAN AID

Arms trade is a large and respected business with trillions of dollars in turnover, multi-billion dollar contracts and prestigious exhibitions. One of them is IDEX-2021, which was recently held in Abu Dhabi with the participation of about 900 leading companies from 59 countries. 106 items of weapons and ammunition produced by the Ministry of Defense Industry of Azerbaijan, including unmanned aerial vehicles, Itigovan UAVs, mortars, etc. were presented at the exhibition.

Armenia also took part at the exhibition. But the Armenian stand was empty (!), although, according to Telegram channels of Yerevan, “renting space cost a lot of money spent from the state budget”. They blame the Armenian Ministry of High Technologies and Military Industry headed by Hakob Arshakyan, which was unable to competently develop and organize the logistics for the exhibition. Armenian weapons on the way to Abu Dhabi got stuck in Moscow. Sarcastic remark from Yerevan: "Please welcome the know-how of the Pashinyan team – attacking the enemy with booklets and flyers."

But it seems that Yerevan's real shame is not an empty stand at the Abu Dhabi exhibition at all.

Arrest of the Baron

In early February, Armenian media reported a high-profile arrest: the Armenian National Security Service detained David Galstyan, a local arms lord also known as Patron Davo. According to the prosecution, David Galstyan, as the chairman of the board of a company registered abroad, and his accomplice - the director of the same company – stole large funds by entering into an agreement with the Armenian Ministry of Defense on the supply of artillery shells for cannons made in 1983-1986. The shells were delivered, but they did not meet the terms of the agreement, as they were supposed to be compatible with the Czech guns made in 1977. According to the National Security Service, “in terms of tactical and technical characteristics, the delivered shells were significantly in poor condition. It was impossible to solve combat missions with these shells. As a result of the transaction, Galstyan received 523 million drams (about $1.08 million).” David Galstyan believes that in fact he delivered exactly the shells that were required, and that they simply make a scapegoat of him, trying to held him accountable for Armenia's defeat in the Second Garabagh War.

Remarkably, according to many indirect evidence, David Galstyan was Nikol Pashinyan's confidant in such a delicate sphere as the arms trade, albeit not always legal.

According to experts, back in June 2020, Mikael Minasyan, the son-in-law of the former President Serzh Sargsyan and the former Armenian ambassador to the Holy See, made a sensational statement. He claimed that David Galstyan was the main perpetrator of a large-scale arms trade scam headed by Nikol Pashinyan and his family members. Thus, the weapons that Russia supplied to Armenia on preferential terms were resold by Pashinyan's "inner circle" to third countries. The scam, according to Minasyan, was revealed, Galstyan was banned from entering Russia for 10 years. And Pashinyan switched to other countries, buying old and unusable Osa AKM complexes from Jordan instead of the upgraded ones.

Finally, during the Second Garabagh War, David Galstyan along with Armenian Defense Minister David Tonoyan and Russian businessman of Armenian origin Samvel Karapetyan became the protagonists of yet another scam. Reportedly, they delivered weapons to Armenia under the guise of humanitarian aid. This is the same “humanitarian aid” that President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev spoke about in one of his interviews: “Armenia recently acquired an airplane, which according to our information, cost $30-40 million. It was purchased by wealthy Armenian businessmen living in Russia, including Karapetyan, Abrahamyan and others. They send Armenians from Russia to Garabagh as mercenaries. At the same time, the purchase of the Il-76 aircraft allowed them to smuggle weapons. This plane had Kornets, anti-tank weapons, and the Igla system.”

These facts also indicate that David Galstyan can indeed be considered Nikol Pashinyan's confidant in such a delicate sphere as the arms trade.

How can we explain his arrest then?

Scapegoat

There is a version that Nikol Pashinyan, under the current situation, has to bash his own people so that the ‘strangers’ to slightly weaken the pressure on him. Indeed, Pashinyan has few options, and amid the pressure from the opposition, he is forced to demonstrate his readiness to get rid of too compromised figures in his circle. Moreover, the arrested Galstyan was likely right when he said that they wanted to make him one of the main culprits of Armenia's defeat in Garabagh. Frankly, that is also quite a traditional move.

Will Pashinyan be able to get off cheap with Galstyan only? Especially amid an impressive load of accusations against him. He is accused of planning to recapture the Leletepe hill from Azerbaijan, which was liberated from the Armenian invaders back in 2016. He conceived an operation that ended in complete failure, failed to develop the mobilization plan and, in general, sent volunteers to the war instead of the military. He is also accused of purchasing Su-30 fighters, which were found to be unarmed. And finally, his wife Anna Hakobyan almost tried to command the Armenian generals, and one of the local commanders was just removed from office after the first lady did not like his behaviour...

In such a situation, a scapegoat like David Galstyan will most likely not change much.

Purging the arms sphere

However, it is quite possible that the arrest of David Galstyan has a completely different motive. The Garabagh war ended with an impressive defeat of Armenia. This makes Yerevan to look for options to restore its army. But this is a very difficult task, including in almost all spheres - from personnel (due to the current mass exodus from Armenia) to material equipment of the army.

According to the most conservative estimates, the Azerbaijani Army destroyed and took as a trophy Armenian weapons worth $4.5 billion. This is quite a large amount, especially for Yerevan with a collapsed economy. Obviously, it is impossible to find a few billion to buy what is missing in the army. Moreover, there is an urgent need for funds for the arrangement of borders, payments to the disabled and the families of the victims.

Yerevan clearly expects, as it was before the 44-day war, to receive weapons as a gift, on the basis of targeted loans or at least at preferential prices. And now comes another very sensitive issue, which Armenian authorities have to solve. Potential arms suppliers must be confident that their weapons will not be resold without their knowledge. In other words, Armenian authorities must make it clear that the same will not happen with funds provided for the purchase of weapons – a case that Mikael Minasyan was talking about in his revelations.

In this context, the arrest of David Galstyan can be interpreted differently. Armenian authorities have to purge their arms sphere of dubious persons in order to restore the credit of confidence and get the weapons again.

However, whether they succeed is a question open for discussion. Simply because Armenia needs too much money to ensure at least some kind of combat capability for its army. Apparently, the outcome of the Garabagh war does not make such a turn of events promising.