SPECIAL MODE OF ESCALATION

Ukrainian, Russian and Western experts have been almost shouting about a possible escalation of the conflict in southeastern Ukraine. What was called "quiet escalation" at the beginning of 2021 is now gradually expanding and threatening to escalate into full-scale hostilities. Is it still possible to avoid the war? What can make all the conflicting parties remain calm in this situation?

No illusions

Back in February, Alexei Arestovich, speaker of the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG), admitted that the aggravation of situation in Donbass "is not likely, but practically inevitable, sooner or later, perhaps this spring or summer." Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs, Arsen Avakov, also admitted the aggravation of the situation. Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine, Alexei Danilov, revealed in February that some "secret decisions" have been made in connection with the situation in Donbass but he preferred not to disclose any further information. Observers immediately made assumptions about a transition to taking decisive actions in case it will not be possible to return Donbass in a peaceful, political way. At the same time, as of mid-March, there were virtually no official statements about the peace process that could somehow clarify the situation.

Suddenly, the Kiev authorities stated that they were waiting for Russia's approval of a certain plan for a peaceful settlement of the situation in Donbass. According to the head of the President's Office of Ukraine, Andrey Yermak, "the plan was developed by Germany and France and was finalized by Ukraine. It meets the spirit of the Minsk agreements and complies with international law." Remarkably, the Ukrainian side emphasized that if Russia does not agree with the document, this will mean that it does not want to end the war in Donbass.

However, judging by the intensity of exchanged strikes between the conflicting parties, we can say that hostilities have already resumed. After all, the ongoing events in the conflict zone do not fit into the "special ceasefire regime", which the parties pledged to observe last July last year. According to various sources, Kiev is pulling heavy weapons to the front line. Mechanized and airborne assault brigades are deployed along the entire line of contact, and the DPR and LPR forces were ordered to suppress firing points of the Ukrainian military.

In addition to Donbass, the situation around Crimea is also heating up. In February, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted a resolution calling on the world community. In this appeal to the UN, European Parliament, PACE, NATO and OSCE parliamentary assemblies, foreign governments are invited to increase pressure on Russia on the Crimean issue. Also at the end of February, Vladimir Zelensky signed a decree on the preparation for international summit as part of the Crimean Platform aimed at returning the peninsula to Ukraine. The Crimean Platform is positioned as an advisory and coordinating basis for countries and international organizations that are ready to respond more effectively to Russia's policy in this regard. Kiev is actively looking for international support to continue anti-Russian sanctions related to Crimea. Kiev also wants to discuss the issues related to shipping in the Black and Azov Seas.

The first to support the Crimean Platform initiative was the US government, at virtually all levels. In early February, the new head of the Department of State, Anthony Blinken, noted that his government would continue to provide Ukraine with "reliable economic and military assistance." On March 1, the US Department of Defense announced the provision of $125 million to increase the defense potential of Ukraine. The Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) provides training for the military, purchase of equipment and assistance of military advisers. This "will enable Ukrainian forces to defend the country's territorial integrity, control borders and enhance interoperability with NATO." In addition, Washington said that sanctions against the Russian Federation will remain as long as Russia does not change its political course on Crimea. NATO is also actively strengthening its presence in the Black Sea. On February 10, Ukraine proposed to the Alliance to start using the airspace near Crimea for carrying out operations to transport troops, equipment, cargo, etc. Ukrainian authorities also expressed their hope for "NATO's support in monitoring the air situation along the border with Russia."

No one has any illusions, as all these events take place in the context of a broader and long-standing confrontation between Russia and the West, especially Russia and the United States. Everyone probably remembers the words of Zbigniew Brzezinski: "...without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire." It depends on what one takes as a starting point in thee words. But it is clear that Moscow, which has completely lost Ukraine to the West, will lose a lot in geopolitical, geocultural and geo-economic meanings. Not to mention national security issues, given the likelihood of Kiev joining NATO.

Moreover, more than half a million residents of Donbass have Russian citizenship. This is a fact. Therefore, despite the official rhetoric, no one views Russia as a third party in the conflict ongoing in the south of Ukraine. This explains the Kremlin's nervous reaction to the US presence in the Black Sea. After all, a significant share of Russian exports, as well as the logistics of troops in Syria, are carried out through the Black Sea region. The American military in this case is purely a geopolitical factor rather than a real military one. Because in the event of a real clash between the US and Russia, Americans do not necessarily have to come so close to the Russian shores.

At the last Munich Security Conference, Joe Biden may not have identified Russia as the main geopolitical rival. But Moscow is certainly number one among the threats to the transatlantic community. In addition, Nord Stream 2 is hampering US energy plans in Europe. That’s where the interests of Washington converge with the interests of Ukraine and Poland, whose foreign ministries appealed to President Biden with a request to “use all means” in order to prevent the completion of this project. It is also rumoured that in fact the collective West needs the vast arable lands of Ukraine (especially given the upcoming changes). These assumptions are not supported by evidence and can easily be considered a conspiracy. But in fact, Ukraine is one of the top 10 largest land reserves of the planet, and also has the highest ratio of arable lands to the total area of its territory. If we add attractive water resources and minerals to this, then the perspectives may change.

Where are the red lines?

With the intensification of hostilities in Donbass, Moscow gets problems in any scenario.

So, if Russia does not interfere in any way in the possible start of hostilities or intervenes at a minimum level, it faces serious risks which may damage her reputation and lead to the loss of confidence by DPR and LPR. Even now, in the comments on the Telegram channels, Donbass residents complain that Russia has abandoned them. If the situation develops according to the Georgian scenario, that is a full-scale escalation of hostilities, Russia will face unprecedented pressure from the international community and sanctions. This could result in the suspension of the almost completed Nord Stream 2 project, severe economic problems and a serious drop in the living standards of the population. Most likely, there will be an internal political split along lines that have long been known and delineated, which is very undesirable for the Kremlin given the Navalny scandal.

It is difficult to predict the military outcome in this case. Despite the talks about the serious training of the Ukrainian Armed Forces under the guidance of US and NATO instructors, it would be foolish to compare the potentials of the Ukrainian and Russian armies. There are also serious problems in the Ukrainian economy, reflected in the growth of prices and utility tariffs. Many residents are also unhappy with the country's efforts to combat COVID-19. In 2020, Ukraine recorded the lowest birth rate in the last ten years, there is a serious outflow of the population. So in this case, everything will depend on how far the western allies of Kiev are ready to trespass the red lines of the Kremlin. And yet - who will be ready to take responsibility, including financial.

Who blocked the Medvedchuk channel

At the same time, the West risks a lot indeed. If it fails, Moscow will be able to expand its territory and to solve a number of strategic tasks, including the shortage of fresh water in the Crimea, as well as the upsurge of patriotic sentiments in the country. Ukraine, most likely, will have to deal with a deep political crisis with an uncertain outcome. It is likely that the country falls into the Russian orbit again. However, it seems that there are enough realists in the Russian leadership who are unlikely to count on such an outcome. Therefore, the analysis of several factors shows that it would be most beneficial for Russia if everything remains the same. Or if, without a war, Donbass remains part of Ukraine, say, as an autonomy, and Ukraine itself be at least half pro-Russian.

Obviously, such a scenario could be realized through the Opposition Platform - For Life Party of Viktor Medvedchuk, who positions himself as "one of the few Ukrainian politicians who consistently supported the restoration of relations between Moscow and Kiev.” Indeed, at first everything seemed to be developing in the direction necessary for the Kremlin. Thus, the confidence in Zelenky’s Servant of the People party has gradually dropped, and there was a split among the party members. At the same time, the Opposition Platform has gradually grown stronger and broadened its potential. But then President Zelensky suddenly ousted the head of the platform through the well-known steps, which shocked a number of commentators. That is why even Poroshenko was shy of touching Medvedchuk, considering him as a communication channel with Moscow.

Experts believe that the incident seriously undermined the informational influence of Russia in Ukraine and in general on the pro-Russian forces, as intended. In another version, it is claimed that it was Russia that have compromised Medvedchuk. A number of Russian observers pointed out that Ukraine was also discussed during the visit of EU High Representative Josep Borrell to Moscow. Specifically, it is rumoured that they discussed what Kiev and the Western intermediary partners were going to offer Moscow through the "Medvedchuk channel”. After all, it can be assumed that not only Poroshenko used this channel.

Everyone knows well the outcome of the meeting between Borrell and the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. It triggered President Zelensky wage war against Medvedchuk. At the same time, one can notice a slight "Kremlin trolling" in what Vladimir Marchenko’s wife called as a forcible admission to her husband's party. On the one hand, this means the trolling of Zelensky himself, since Oxana Marchenko also represents the show business and even remembered that she once helped the current president with employment.

On the other hand, the Medvedchuk-Marchenko pair resembles the Russian opposition pair Navalny and his wife... Is it not a coincidence that after some time Kiev invited Russia to talk about a new "very powerful step"? A step that will be "the subject of powerful discussion in a week or two", and which was also developed by France and Germany in the spirit of international law. And Zelensky himself said that if the Normandy summit to resolve the Donbass conflict fails, he will try to meet with each leader separately.

However, the question is what Josep Borrell was trying to talk about in Russia? No information is available from the open sources but we can assume that Europe is extremely worried about the state of the Ukrainian economy. After all, the very serious problems of Kiev may undermine the very idea of Euromaidan and the image of Brussels. At the same time, Europe, which has suffered from the consequences of the lockdown, most likely cannot and does not want to save the Ukrainian economy. It is trying to involve Russia in this process, which, as expected, is bargaining. This is just a guess. But, frankly, this would be the best ending for the current situation, and, most importantly – and ending without a war.