JORDANIAN GAMES AROUND THE THRONE

In April, the world media outlets plastered news of an attempted coup in one of the most tranquil, secular and developed states of the Middle East – the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. The Washington Post reported that the former Crown Prince Hamza bin Hussein was detained for his involvement in a conspiracy that threatened national security and undermined the stability of the state.

In addition to bin Hussein, about two dozen people were detained, including sheikhs of some tribes, a distant relative of the ruling family, the ex-envoy of the king to Saudi Arabia Sharif Hasan bin Zayed, ex-Minister of Finance Bassem Awadallah and others. Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Jordan Ayman al-Safadi said that bin Hussein, with the support of some external forces, was trying to "distort the facts and gain sympathy within Jordan and abroad."

Conspiracy or staging?

Many regional countries have made statements in support of the current Jordan authorities, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Iran, Yemen and a number of other countries. The US State Department spokesman Ned Price said that "King Abdullah is a key partner of the United States." Nevertheless, al-Safadi's explanations raised doubts regarding the ‘external forces’ he meant in his message. Who could benefit from the destabilization of situation in Jordan?

The history of the current conflict goes back twenty years, when in 1999 the late King Hussein ibn Talal appointed his son from his second wife, Prince Abdullah (Abdullah II), as heir to the throne, but asked to appoint Hamza bin Hussein as crown prince. Prince Abdullah fulfilled the request of his father, but in 2004 he deprived his brother of the title, passing it on to his eldest son named after his grandfather, Hussein. Apparently, Hamza does not really agree with the existing situation. Moreover, his popularity among the people gives him courage, also due to his similarity with his late father, who is still remembered as the beloved monarch. It is known that King Hussein publicly called Hamza "a delight to his eyes." In other words, we can assume that the ongoing events were a sort of attempt by the current authorities to remove Hamza from the political arena.

A red line for Prince Abdullah and his inner circle could be the close contacts of Hamza bin Hussein with the leaders of Jordanian clans, some of whom may have pledged their support for him. Indeed, with more than 90% of its territory covered by deserts,  Jordan is a classic tribal country, where local sheikhs have great influence. It was their agreement to transfer the power to the Hashemites that led to the creation of the kingdom in 1921. Eventually, these tribal clans continue to have influence over the policies of the monarch. For example, in the summer of 2018, members of the Beni Sahr tribe threatened to block the main road between Amman and Madaba and “shake the pillars of the Jordanian state” if the scholar and prominent member of the clan Fares al-Fayez was not released. Al-Fayez was arrested after a video, where he strongly criticised King Abdullah II, went viral.

Also, Hamza bin Hussein has explicitly demonstrated his dissatisfaction with his brother. During his contacts with the tribal leaders, he also leveraged the fact that some of them consider Abdullah too close to the Palestinian forces (in part due to the Palestinian origin of Abdullah’s wife, Queen Rania). Yet, by some estimates, about half of today's Jordanians are of Palestinian origin.

Reasons for dissatisfaction

Despite being under house arrest, Hamza could transmit a video message to BBC through his lawyer. He said that he rejected his involvement in the coup, but he was not responsible for the breakdown of governance, corruption and incompetence that has been getting worse by the year. Hamza also complained about the infringement of freedom of speech in Jordan, noting that nobody in the country can speak or express one's opinion without being bullied, threatened or harassed.

Meanwhile, the main reasons for dissatisfaction come not only from the former crown prince, but also from the overwhelming majority of the population. They are related to the difficult economic situation in Jordan, which manifested itself during the so-called Arab Spring and got worse with the introduction of the COVID-19 lockdown. Being a country with extremely few natural resources, Jordan has opted for tourism as the key source of income in the past several decades. Therefore, the unemployment rate, which even before the coronavirus reached 18%, continued to grow, reaching, according to unofficial data, more than 30%. Every year, the external national debt of the kingdom rises, already reaching more than 90% of GDP.

Jordan also provided shelter for more than two million refugees from Syria and Iraq, who also place a heavy burden on state expenditures. How could the kingdom survive under these circumstances?

Jordan has been considered a long-time ally of the United States in the Middle East, receiving significant amount of cash from its Western partners and loyal regional states. It is clear that the West is unlikely to turn a blind eye to any ‘conspiracies’ in the country. After all, there is an American airbase, and several hundred American military instructors are stationed in the country. It’s been reported that after the outbreak of the Syrian conflict back in 2011, the US spent hundreds of millions of dollars to strengthen the Jordanan military. Abdullah II himself is half English and a  graduate of the Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst, as well as the Oxford and Georgetown universities.

External footprint or footprints?

Remarkably, there are reports claiming an Israeli involvement in the story. Thus, when Prince Hamza was placed under house arrest, an Israeli businessman Roy Shaposhnik wrote to his wife, offering to take the family to Europe on a private plane. Despite the entrepreneur’s offer as a private person and a friend of the prince, Amman stated that Shaposhnik had ties with the Israeli intelligence service Mossad. Some observers believe the statement was made by Jordanian authorities to link the former crown prince to the country with a strong opposition from Jordanians. But the public version of the statement does not mention the fact that Shaposhnik, who is the head of RS Logistical Solutions, has also connections in the US government.

At the same time, Israel itself has fairly strong points of contact with Amman. First, Jordan plays a key role in the settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Secondly, the Hashemite Kingdom acts as a buffer zone for Israel against the spread of Iranian influence. That is why Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz called the incident an internal affair in the neighbouring state. But he also noted that "a strong and prosperous Jordan" is a guarantee of Israel's security and economic interest.

Meanwhile, the head of the Jordanian Joint Chiefs of Staff, Major General Yousef Ahmad al-Huneiti, denied the arrest of Prince Hamza. This also sounds like the whole incident has been staged against Hamza. According to the major general, Prince Hamza was only asked to "stop actions that may threaten the security of Jordan." Obviously, King Abdullah II and his people are afraid of persecuting the ex-crown prince. Thus, on April 7, the king announced that the crisis in the country was over and that Prince Hamza was completely devoted to the throne and was in the palace with his family. The office of the royal palace issued a statement saying that Prince Hamza signed a letter, in which he expressed his support for Abdullah II.

Meanwhile, one cannot ignore the likely involvement of some external forces in the recent foul play in Jordan. For example, Iran has been traditionally nervous about Israel and tried to ensure uninterrupted work with the Palestinians, who make up almost 60% of Jordan's population. Another country with which Jordan has a peculiar relationship and a common border is Saudi Arabia (SA). In fact, the Hashemite dynasty comes from the Hejaz region of the Middle East and represents one of the main Meccan clans tracing its lineage from Hashim, the great-grandfather of the Prophet Muhammad. In the 1920s, after years of conflict in the Arabian Peninsula, the Hashemite dynasty was ousted by Al Saud. The Hashemites were welcomed by the tribes in what is now Jordan, where the country of the same name was created with the British military and political support. Thus, the Saudis and Hashemites vie for the control of the holy sites of Jerusalem, especially the Temple Mount. In fact, it is the ruling dynasty of Jordan that has the status of the guardians of the Islamic shrines of Jerusalem. Jordan's refusal to support Saudi Arabia in 1990 during its confrontation with Iraq openly shocked Riyadh.

In the 2000s, relations between Jordan and Saudi Arabia returned to normal. However, similar disagreements have been in place over Syria, where the Saudis have supported Bashar al-Assad's opponents throughout the conflict. Reportedly, the failure of the United Arab Emirates–a close ally of Jordan–to consult with King Abdullah II of Jordan before signing a recent peace agreement with Israel under the obvious guidance of Saudi Arabia in this matter also impeded the restoration of friendship between the Jordanians and Saudis. After all, the UAE’s step runs counter to the strategy of Jordan, which views any expansion of Israeli-Arab relations only through the prism of the settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Thus, in March 2021, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had to abandon his planned trip to the UAE at the last moment because Jordan refused to open its airspace to the Emirati plane...

Remarkably, one of the detained ‘conspirators’ is Bassem Awadallah, who is the CEO of the consulting firm Tomoh Advisory (Dubai). In recent years, he has reportedly been an adviser to Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. Awadallah participated in the planning of Neom–bin Salman's ‘city of the future’. In addition, he has established strong ties with the UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed. Awadallah is also known for supporting the policy of greater openness in the Middle East and a new order of regional cooperation. On the other hand, during the 2011 Arab Spring, protesters in Jordan demanded his resignation from the government. It was believed that Awadallah has been largely responsible for the country's economic problems.

Thus, it is obvious that Jordan is a country largely dependent on the West and its neighbours. On the one hand, the internal order in the kingdom is largely maintained by the consensus of the tribes, and on the other, the population is heavily mixed by Palestinians and Syrian refugees. Plus, in recent years, the pressure of external factors has significantly increased, with the coronavirus pandemic being the most destructive. It is very easy to tip the balance in such a state.

However, there are many educated people within the tribes who realise pretty well that without the Hashemites in power, the country can slide into feudal wars and be torn to pieces. Of course, Prince Hamza understands this too. In addition, neither the US nor the neighbouring countries, other Gulf monarchies, will be happy to such a turn of events. But what was behind this Jordanian conspiracy anyway? It is possible that the ‘external forces’ mentioned by al-Safadi are gently pushing Jordan towards greater flexibility, which will more effectively respond to the current geopolitical shifts in the region. It is also possible that the new White House administration has set about making some adjustments to the ongoing changes in the region. After all, the Abraham Accords, which Prince Hamza has criticised too, were signed by the arch rival of the incumbent US President Joe Biden, Donald Trump, and were called the latter’s political accomplishment.

It’s noteworthy that with the upcoming elections to the Palestinian parliament (the first one in the last 14 years), the Palestinian issue may soon relapse again. On March 4, the International Criminal Court in the Hague announced the start of an official investigation of alleged war crimes in the Palestinian Authority. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already called the investigation the apotheosis of anti-Semitism and hypocrisy. And Jordan is in the epicentre of all these complex regional processes. Not to mention the geostrategic location of the kingdom, which determines both the long-standing explicit and implicit battles between the world powers.