WHO DID THE MISSILE HIT?

On April 2, Moscow hosted a regular meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers (CFM) of the CIS. Azerbaijan was represented by Mr. Jeyhun Bayramov. As expected, the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister also held bilateral talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. But Mr. Bayramov didn’t have a face-to-face meeting with the Armenian Foreign Minister Ara Ayvazyan, nor did he take part in the trilateral meeting with his Russian and Armenian colleagues. For observers, this was quite unexpected. Does it imply that Russia, which has declared itself as the chief mediator in the region, is now ceasing its diplomatic efforts?

Nobody’s Iskander-M

Incidentally, the ministerial council was held in the days when the number one news in Azerbaijan was the discovery of an Iskander-M missile in Shusha. Interestingly, the missile was of type used only by the Russian army and was not subject to export. Experts immediately recalled the statements about the launch of an Iskander missile made at the end of the war by the former Chief of the General Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces, General Movses Hakobyan, and the former President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan. Although the official representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense Igor Konashenkov then responded that Iskander was not used during the Garabagh conflict. Despite the fragments of the missile identified in Shusha, there was no official explanation from Moscow.

Therefore, a group of Azerbaijani journalists and bloggers addressed the Russian Embassy to Baku: “We are surprised that the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Defense and other interested bodies are in no hurry to clarify how the Iskander missile system could have been used against Shusha. Obviously, comprehensive investigation of the fact will take time. However, we yet to hear official statements about the start of one, and this causes serious concern in Azerbaijan."

However, experts are sceptical about a diplomatic pause in this situation. On the same days, the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation Igor Krasno visited both Baku and Yerevan. He has already held a trilateral meeting of the prosecutors general of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia in Moscow. Garabagh was also discussed between the presidents of Russia and Turkey, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Putin also held talks with Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan in Moscow, followed by his telephone conversation with the President of Azerbaijan. So, despite an intensive diplomatic activity in the region, it develops in different directions.

What did Putin remind Pashinyan of?

The talks between the Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan provide some food for thought. Editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine Igor Korotchenko even posted a sarcastic message in his Telegram channel: “Pashinyan: ‘We need a million doses of vaccine, a new nuclear power plant, discounted gas, Su-30 fighters, Iskander missiles, preferential loans so that you can modernize our army, your assistance in the return of prisoners, as well as your support to me candidacy in the elections…’ Putin: ‘Nikol Vovayevich, you must have a long list of requests there...’”

As expected, most observers in Yerevan interpreted the Moscow meeting from another angle. A few days earlier, the second president of Armenia Robert Kocharian gave an interview to Vladimir Pozner in Moscow. For many, Kocharian's interview on the leading state-run TV was a clear signal that Kocharian is the Kremlin's favourite in the upcoming elections in Armenia. Now, after the Moscow talks with Pashinyan, the moods have changed: obviously, Pashinyan is not on the Kremlin’s list of enemies.

According to Armenian observers, during the meeting with Putin, Pashinyan nervously peeked into his ‘wish list’ ten times. But Putin focused on the significance of unblocking communications in the region. “The most important component is the possibility of restoring trade and economic ties and transport routes in the region so that Armenia has new opportunities for development. I think this is an extremely important thing,” Putin said. Subtext is clear: the post-conflict settlement in the region opens up good prospects for Armenia, it is time for the country to become economically self-sufficient and independent of Russia. Moreover, it is obvious that Moscow, the moderator of the peace process, is concerned about Yerevan's attempts to slow down the implementation of the agreements on the Zangezur corridor by all means.

Behind the scenes of the Moscow talks: Armenian perspective

In Armenia, the issue of the Zangezur corridor causes hot discussions. Opposition accuses Prime Minister Pashinyan of ‘surrendering the territories’ (Armenian definition of the demarcation of borders in the region) and threatens the faint-hearted public claiming that Pashinyan will ‘yield to the Turks’ not only Garabagh but also Zangezur! Even the infamous scandal around the visit of the commander of the Russian peacekeeping forces in Garabagh, General Rustam Muradov, to Armenia has been interpreted as a follow-up of the story. In brief: just before the visit, Nzhdeh Hovsepyan, Spokesman of the Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia Tigran Avinyan, officially announced that Muradov would bring ‘Armenian prisoners’ to Yerevan, implying the militants dispatched the Khojavend district of Azerbaijan after the ceasefire. Earlier, Baku has repeatedly stated that they were not prisoners but terrorists, and that they would not be released based on the ‘all for all’ principle. As a result, Muradov's plane landed in Yerevan empty. This was followed by a new fake: allegedly there was a secret Azerbaijani-Turkish delegation on Muradov’s plane, which was dispatched to Armenia to take measurements for the Zangezur Corridor! But this news was also later denied.

Apparently, there are many factors indicating that the Armenian authorities led by Pashinyan intend to pause the implementation of communication projects, referring to internal political ‘difficulties’. This would be understandable if not for Nikol Pashinyan's track record. He once promised to advance the issue of the Garabakh settlement after the elections. But even after the elections, Pashinyan was in no hurry to fulfil his promises. However, references to internal political problems will no longer help Yerevan. And this is what Putin reminded Pashinyan of.