NO ROOM FOR POLITICAL ERRORS

46th President of the United States Joe Biden did what his predecessors had always tried to avoid. He called the events of the early 20th century in the Ottoman Empire "the Armenian genocide." Although the White House statement has no legal force and is only a symbolic step, it directly affects the political processes, especially in Western Asia. After all, this directly affects the interests of at least three states in the region: Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia. It is no coincidence that the fancy words of Mr. Biden echoed in the region almost immediately, causing a storm of emotions and no longer symbolically, but quite practically putting US interests under a sensitive blow.

Whose interests run the White House?

Many prominent representatives of the US political establishment often repeat that Washington's national interests are the driving factor that determines the vector of American foreign policy. In turn, the promotion of US national interests presupposes building strong and long-term relationships with its allies. Despite the current tension in relations between the US and Turkey, Ankara for many decades has been such an ally. That is why the term "Armenian genocide" has not been used in Washington.

The term was first voiced by Ronald Reagan in 1982 with the active involvement of his speechwriter of Armenian origin, Ken Khachikyan. However, Reagan has not used the term ever again during his tenure. He was convinced that the national interests of the US are much broader than the narrow interests of the Armenian lobby. Also, Turkey is a much more effective partner to rely on in the implementation of the complex Middle Eastern policy of the US than the Armenian diaspora. Washington uses the services of the latter, albeit partially, only during internal electoral campaigns.

By the way, according to statistics, the Turkish and Armenian diasporas of America are approximately equal numerically. The Armenian diaspora is even less by 50,000-100,000 people. In fact, the Turkish diaspora is not so influential and not so active in the social and political life of the US, but it is the same part of the American nation that should enjoy equal rights and count on equal respect.

By the way, this also applies to representatives of other peoples of the US, whose history bears evidence to no less dramatic events. However, for some reason, every year the leaders of America prefer to remember only the events that allegedly took place long ago in the Ottoman Empire. It is difficult to find any rational explanation for this.

It is equally impossible to explain the fact of recognition of the actions of Ottoman rulers as "genocide" against the Armenians by the legislative bodies in various American states a century later. At the same time, they did not notice or did not want to notice the massacre of Turks and Kurds by Armenian armed formations.

The fact that some persons of Armenian nationality hold positions in the current presidential administration, close ties of the US Vice President Kamala Harris with the Armenian lobby and, in general, Biden's own sympathy for Armenians amid the deteriorating dialogue between Washington and Ankara have played a negative role in recent processes.

Furthermore, when by the end of 2019 all US states have recognised the "Armenian genocide" with similar resolutions having been adopted by both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the same year, it would be naive to expect Biden not voice the ‘longed-for term’. As well, the appeal of 100 members of the House, initiated by the Armenian diaspora, with a call to Biden to recognise the events of 1915 as genocide played an instrumental role in the whole story.

What's next…

American-Turkish relations have significantly complicated as soon as the American legislators passed a legally non-binding declaration, and the US President voiced the longed-for phrase about the "Armenian genocide".

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu tweeted: “No one can teach us anything about our own past. Political opportunism is the greatest betrayal of peace and justice. We completely reject this statement based solely on populism."

Following this, the Turkish Foreign Ministry issued an official statement in line with the statement of Mr. Cavusoglu: "The US statement distorts historical facts and will never be accepted by Turkish citizens. It also opens a deep wound that undermines trust and friendship between our nations."

For an objective assessment of history, Ankara has repeatedly offered the Armenian side to open all archives containing information about the dramatic events of 1915 in the Ottoman Empire. The same appeal was made to representatives of the international scientific community. Unfortunately, it was ignored too. There is reason to believe that the issue of the "Armenian genocide" is used as an instrument of political pressure on Turkey.

Today, no one doubts that the “Armenian issue” is used as a stick against Turkey; payment for its desire to pursue an independent foreign policy, including in matters related to the military-technical modernisation and rearmament of the Turkish army. Just a couple of days before Biden's speech, the US excluded Turkey from the F-35 aircraft production program due to the purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems.

It was a multi-component program, with the memorandum on the implementation signed back in 2007. Turkey committed to buy 100 F-35s. She has also been involved in the production of over 1000 components for them. At the same time, Turkey continues to produce these components, despite the fact that the US excluded it from the project.

At the same time, the Biden administration wants to solve large-scale projects in the Middle East, where the only institutional ally of the US is Turkey, a fellow NATO member. With the cooling of relations between the two countries, the implementation of these plans seems problematic. Moreover, Israel, another main ally of Washington in the region, is increasingly making it clear that the current American course raises a lot of questions. In particular, the US refusal to recognise Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights, contrary to Donald Trump's decision last year.

As a result, the emotional decisions of the current American administration targeting the domestic electorate become decreasingly justified from a pragmatic point of view and increasingly costly  from a practical point of view.

Echo of the Washington statement in South Caucasus

Meanwhile, Biden's statement on the recognition of the "Armenian genocide" caused a negative reaction not only in the Bosphorus but also on the Caspian Sea. “The statement of Joe Biden, which distorted the historical truth about the events of 1915, is regrettable. Those who politicize the so-called ‘Armenian genocide’ are silent about the massacres of more than 500,000 people by Armenian armed formations, as well as about the massacres committed by Armenian Dashnaks in March 1918 in Baku and other regions of Azerbaijan. With a false assessment of the centenary events, there is a failure to give a fair assessment of the genocide committed by Armenia against Azerbaijanis in Khojaly 30 years ago. This is nothing else but a biased attitude and a perfect example of double standards,” the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in its statement.

The United States has once tried to play a more active role in the region, in particular, in the issue of normalising Armenian-Turkish relations. The Washington administration was among the initiators of the signing of the so-called Zurich Protocols, which paved the way for reconciliation between the two nations. At the same time, the Turkish side, taking into account the interests of Azerbaijan, justly made the normalisation of relations with Yerevan conditional upon the solution of the Garabagh problem. This made it possible to solve all the key regional problems complexly and, given the membership of the US in the OSCE Minsk Group, to take into account the interests of Washington in the regional agenda, integrating it into the system of regional politics.

However, the refusal of Yerevan to consider regional issues in entirety, to open archives, as well as the refusal to deoccupy the Azerbaijani lands, in fact, left the US interests in the region behind. Considering Washington's proposals as a threat to its national interests, Yerevan chose to focus on intensifying ties with Moscow. But again, the strategic calculation of Armenian leaders were not effective. Close interaction between Turkey and Russia, on the one hand, and Russia and Azerbaijan, on the other, shows that Baku, Ankara and Moscow, that is the existing political dialogue, play the key roles in the post-conflict regional structure.

As a result, the US is not in the ‘big game’ any more, although it is formally involved in the process of the settlement of the Daghlig Garabagh conflict, and its prestige has been significantly damaged. Yerevan is again trying to flirt with Washington, hoping to revive the old agenda of the Minsk Group, which was focused on the issue of the status of Daghlig Garabagh. However, Azerbaijan and Turkey completely reject such attempts. Also, Russia has repeatedly stressed the irrelevance of raising this issue.

Under the current conditions, when the American administration, due to the political conjuncture, actually offended the feelings of the Turkish people and expressed its sympathy to Armenians, it also acknowledged its biased attitude towards the suffering of the Azerbaijani people.

Biden and his predecessors have never publicly condemned Yerevan for Khojaly, for atrocities and massacres, deportation of Azerbaijanis from Armenia and now liberated districts of Azerbaijan.

Events of more than a century ago turned out to be more important than those that are unfolding in the region today. The phrase "historical justice" uttered by the US President in relation to the Armenians of the Ottoman Empire sound like a mockery for the millions of Azerbaijanis who have suffered the burden of the conflict with Armenia for more than three decades.

Thus, for the sake of a group of individuals speculating on historical events, Washington is losing strategic partners with which it has long had mutual interests. Unfortunately, for the time being, narrow and selfish interests prevail in the American administration, which do not go in line with the US national interests. We hope that sooner or later Washington will understand the falsity of such steps.

History, which the political supporters of the ‘Armenian genocide’ often enjoy referring to, does not forgive mistakes. The weakening of the US position in the region created a vacuum that can easily be filled by other players, and it is usually very difficult to play back and regain the lost position.