NORTHERN ATTRACTION

According to British meteorologists, temperatures in parts of the Arctic soared above -30 degrees Celsius on May 19, well above the average for this season.

Meanwhile, the ever-accelerating process of climate change directly affects the geopolitics around the Arctic zone. The area becomes more accessible for the use of trade sea routes, as well as the extraction of huge deposits of minerals, including oil, gas and rare metals, including uranium, cobalt and platinum. It is believed that the Arctic can contain up to 30% of all undiscovered natural gas reserves and 13% of oil fields. As a result, the North may become a new zone of confrontation between the global centres of power, even a new theatre of conflict between them.

Pacifying the fervour

Russia, which possesses 53% of the entire coastline in the Arctic Ocean, has recently significantly increased its military and infrastructure presence in the region. The US is also trying its best to gain a firm foothold in the Arctic. In parallel, if Washington is supported by all the might and capabilities of NATO, it is believed that Moscow is trying to take advantage of Chinese support.

The 12th Ministerial Session of the Arctic Council (AC), which includes Russia, the US, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Iceland, took place in Reykjavik on May 20. The chairmanship was passed to Moscow, which does not hide its hopes to use this period with maximum benefit. “Russia does not see the potential for conflict in the Arctic and the reasons for the implementation of programs of any military-political blocs in the region,” Sergei Lavrov said during a press conference following the AC meeting. However, even before the meeting, he clearly stated that Russia considered everything in the Arctic to be its sovereign territory and was not going to concede it to anyone.

Meanwhile, at a meeting of the Russian organising committee Pobeda, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised to ‘knock out the teeth’ to anyone who publicly dares to accuse Russia of injustice in the ownership of the wealth of the Siberian region. “Everyone wants to 'bite' us somewhere or 'bite off' something of ours, but those that would do this should know that we will knock out the teeth of all of them so they aren't able to bite... And the key to this is the development of our armed forces,” Putin said.

The phrase about the injustice of Russia’s sole ownership of Siberia is usually attributed to the former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, although she denied that she had said this. In this case, however, it is not important what Albright once said, but the context of Putin's statement, who also addressed the audience in Reykjavik in this way.

Yet another clear message was that just before the AC meeting, Moscow allowed foreign journalists to visit the Arctic Trefoil – one of the most modernised and the northernmost military base on the island of Alexandra Land, 257 km from the eastern tip of the Svalbard archipelago. The new military base covering an area of more than 14,000 sq. m is designed to accommodate about 150 military personnel and to ensure the autonomous and self-sufficient operation of the Russian Northern Fleet. An ultra-modern radar station is located at the base to track the movement of ships and aircraft. The coastal missile system Bastion is also available there. Near the base is the Nagurskoye airfield, which can accommodate all classes of aircraft, including, for example, Tu-95 strategic bombers. As Major General Igor Churkin noted, this "increases the potential of the Northern Fleet's aviation in the interests of controlling the airspace in the water zone of the Northern Sea Route, and makes it possible to ensure the safety of this transport artery from the air." By the way, the location makes it possible to reach the northernmost US military base in Tula, Greenland in less than an hour, and New York in two hours. Also, the Russian Northern Fleet is based in the closed military city of Severomorsk on the shores of the Barents Sea, 1,336 kilometres from Alexandra Land. Among other things, Severomorsk hosts a wide range of new ships and submarines.

Another bone of contention

It is not surprising that, despite the rather friendly tone of the AC, the US called on the rest of the members to oppose Moscow's plans to establish rules for navigation on the Northern Sea Route, which runs from Norway to Alaska. The US is also against Russia's intentions to resume high-level military talks in this eight-nation council. Washington warns Russia not to “take advantage of” the changes caused by the warming climate and not to militarise the region. The US says it is necessary to prioritise peaceful cooperation on the environment, maritime safety and the welfare of the indigenous peoples of the region. At the same time, according to the Western media outlets, the call "for a peaceful and conflict-free Arctic, which should be under the control of the international community, and not individual countries," is also supported by Canada, Iceland, Finland, Norway and Sweden.

However, it seems that Russia does not believe in the peace-loving assurances of the US about the protection of the environment and aborigines. After all, the Americans themselves have enough military potential to control the North Pole, and they use them with the same zeal and haste as the Russian Federation. For example, due to the presence in Greenland, which is currently an autonomous territory of Denmark and once hosted an American military base with a huge locator that could observe the entire North Atlantic. Greenland's plans to switch to the so-called "Icelandic model" of defense provision means the ability to call American troops to strategically important positions "if something happens". Therefore, the Russian Ambassador to Denmark Vladimir Barbin said that "there is no place for NATO and its weapons in the Arctic."

Interestingly, at the 12th session of the AC, Greenland and another autonomy of the Kingdom of Denmark – the Faroe Islands – also received an exclusive right to have a word in the Council separately. On May 18, Anthony Blinken visited the capital of Greenland, Kangerlussuaq, where he held talks on security and defense in the North Atlantic and the Arctic. Meanwhile, Ambassador Barbin also mentioned the increased frequency of NATO military exercises in the Arctic, including in the north of Norway. The defense agreement between Norway and the US allows the Americans to form their infrastructure at Norwegian bases, and American nuclear submarines to be stationed in the ports of Tromsø. In 2018, for the first time since the collapse of the USSR, the US sent an aircraft carrier to the Arctic Ocean as part of a NATO exercise. Recently, the US Air Force command announced a large-scale military exercise scheduled for June in Alaska with the participation of pilots from Japan and South Korea. The exercise called Red Flag Alaska 21-2, will feature over 100 combat aircraft.

Thus, in general, the balance of power and the narrative forming around the Arctic is already quite clear. Both sides are strengthening their military presence in the region by all available means. In parallel, if Russia relies on traditional concepts of the international system of relations, such as the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the US is clearly trying to promote a more ‘modern’ context on environmental protection for the Arctic. Russia seeks to keep discussion of Arctic issues at the regional level, while the US is trying to make it an international concern, insisting on "the relationship between the Arctic and the rest of the world." Moreover, the "international property" should, eventually, include not only care for local peoples, flora and fauna, but also minerals of the Arctic and the passage along the Northern Sea Route (NSR).

Strategic Objectives for the Arctic

In this context, Moscow has no choice but to join the game imposed by the West, because refusing such noble intentions as the protection of global climate in cooperation with other states would mean a serious loss for the country's reputation on world stage. So, the Strategic Plan (SP) for 2021-2030 was adopted in Reykjavik. The document declares seven strategic goals joined under three themes: Environmental protection, Sustainable social and economic development, Strengthening the Arctic Council. Support and development of the indigenous peoples of the region are identified as one of the most important areas. At the same time, it is obvious that in this scenario, Russia's positions may become vulnerable if suddenly it becomes clear that Russia is not capable of managing its vast Arctic expanses without damage to the environment. It is enough to remember the number of large oil spills in the Russian northern territories.

Remarkably, the confrontation between the West and Russia over the Arctic includes the interests of another important actor–China–which is one of the observer states of the Arctic Council and already calls itself a ‘subarctic state’. Beijing is primarily interested in the northern sea routes, which are much shorter than the traditional ones, passing through the Panama Canal, the Indian Ocean, the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea. At the same time, China is not only trying to reduce the delivery time of its goods, but also to diversify the routes of fuel delivery. China is going to make its way into such an attractive, albeit geographically distant region, using the old proven method – investments, including in scientific programs and environmental protection.

However, it is a mistake to associate China's Arctic ambitions with Russia. China has no allies, but only economic interests, and it targets these territories in any case. So, the Western countries will not remain silent observing Beijing’s entry to the region via the Russian route only, rather they will open their doors to China too. Obviously, the attitude towards China is more than wary, but some Chinese companies are already involved in mining operations in Canada and Greenland. Beijing plans to build its own nuclear icebreakers able to navigate the Northern Sea Route, with Finland being its main assistant in this process. Thus, China will undoubtedly try to take advantage of the contradictions between the regional countries. This factor, in a certain scenario, can become both destabilizing and, conversely, turn into a necessary element of the fragile Arctic equation.