TOWARDS RECONCILIATION

Apparently, the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the two largest religious states in the Middle East, are close to make peace. Relations between the two countries may soon improve, depending on the success of the negotiation process started a few months ago.

Recently, Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal ibn Farhan, said that the initial stage of negotiations with Iran, which currently take place at the level of the intelligence services of both countries, is encouraging. However, the outcome of the negotiation process may also be influenced by the upcoming presidential vote in Iran. The Saudi minister expressed hope for the restoration of deteriorated relations between the two countries.

Back to the future

The first round of secret talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia took place on April 9 in Baghdad. It is known that the main mediator between the negotiators and the organizer of the meeting was Mustafa al-Kazimi, the Prime Minister of Iraq, who previously served in the country's intelligence agencies. The meeting between the Iranians and the Saudis became possible after several visits by al-Kazimi to Riyadh and Tehran. Of course, both countries were interested in these negotiations. Although, until the first round of negotiations on April 9, the process was kept secret.

“Iran is our neighbour. We wish to establish high-level good-neighbourly relations with it,” Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed ibn Salman said in his interview with the official state television channel in late April. He added that his kingdom wants only the well-being of Iran and respects mutual interests. But the nuclear program initiated by Iran, the production of ballistic missiles, as well as Iranian support to illegal armed groups in some countries of the region are serious obstacles to the implementation of these plans. At the same time, Salman noted the beginning of joint work with its allies to solve the urging problems.

The prince also said that in the 1950s and 1970s, "Arab nationalism and socialist projects caused radical religious groups to penetrate the state systems of Muslim countries," which led to "unpleasant" consequences. Therefore, Muhammad ibn Salman expressed the hope that getting rid of radicalism would contribute to the real development of relations.

In recent years, many have interpreted the cooling of Iranian-Saudi relations through the prism of religious differences in these countries, although the main reason is political issues. For example, despite the religious differences between Tehran and Riyadh, there were no serious problems between them until 1979, when the monarchical system of governance prevailed in both countries. In 1962, after the events in Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Iran were even allies in the campaign to restore the "imamate" in this country. However, the Islamic Revolution in Iran (1979) and the doctrine based on the spread of the revolution in other countries had a negative impact on relations between the two countries. Islamist movements soon sprang up in Saudi Arabia, inspired by the ideas of the Iranian revolution. The Saudi authorities became increasingly worried about the events following the 1979 Mecca uprising, as well as political protests during the Mecca pilgrimage in subsequent years.

Largely thanks to its sacredly revered by all Muslims mission of the official patron of the two Islamic shrines in Mecca and Medina, as well as the wealth gained from oil and gas revenues, Saudi Arabia began to act as the new leader of the Muslim world during the Gulf War and the reshaping of the Middle East. And during and after the Arab Spring, Riyadh acted as the patron, albeit unofficial, of the Arab countries of the region, at the same time entering into confrontation with Tehran in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Despite the absence of a direct military conflict between them, confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the above three countries is nothing more than a proxy war, the bitter fruits of which were reaped not only in the Middle East, but also by the entire Muslim world.

The break in relations between the two Muslim countries followed in 2015, when hundreds of pilgrims, including Iranian citizens, died during the Hajj to Mecca. The incident immediately exacerbated the relationship between them. According to the official version of Tehran, as a result of a stampede, 769 people, including 169 Iranians, were killed and hundreds went missing due to the monstrous negligence of the Saudi authorities. As a result, the incident worsened relations between Tehran and Riyadh, making the Iranian pilgrimage to Mecca in 2016 impossible. Despite protests from Iran and international organizations, another serious incident took place soon after. Ayatollah Sheikh Nimr Bakir al-Nimr, the religious leader of the Shiites compactly living in the Al-Sharqiya province of Saudi Arabia (about 20% of the kingdom's population are followers of Shiism, R+) was publicly executed. These two events further aggravated the tense relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. In subsequent years, both countries found themselves on opposite fronts during the crises in Yemen, Syria, Qatar and Lebanon.

Remarkably, the outcome of growing tension and political rivalry between the two states most painfully hit the countries of the region and the Muslim world as a whole, increasing the confrontation and split in the Muslim community in terms of religious differences.

In 2019, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif announced Tehran's readiness to negotiate with Riyadh directly or through intermediaries. “We are ready to discuss any issues with Saudi Arabia. It is our neighbour and we have no choice but to hold a dialogue,” Zarif said.

But it took another two years for these negotiations to take place. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has already confirmed the fact of negotiations with Saudi Arabia. The ministry said that they would do everything possible for the governments of both countries to solve the existing problems. However, the success of the ongoing negotiation process will, to a certain extent, depend on the outcome of the upcoming presidential elections in Iran. Although Saudi officials expressed hope that the elections would not affect the process, noting that the key decision-maker in Iran is not the president, but the country's supreme religious leader.

Enmity does not succeed

Naturally, everything depends on the changes taking place in the region and in the world here and now. It is obvious that relations between the two countries have deteriorated largely due to the military-political situation in the region, especially in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Bahrain. And the culmination of all this was the hard-hitting events in Mecca and the execution of Sheikh al-Nimr. The election of Republican Donald Trump as President of the United States, who openly sided with the Arab countries and Israel against Iran and its allies, also contributed to the increase in the degree of tension in the region. However, the current situation did not lead to any clashes or military-political collapse in Iran. On the contrary, during the entire tenure of Mr. Trump, the anti-Iranian front provoked by his administration in Yemen, Syria, Qatar and Lebanon has not had much success.

Moreover, the futile conflicts that worsen each year have shown that the present situation ultimately harms all Muslim countries, especially Iran and Saudi Arabia. Plus, the activation of new players in the region, such as China and Russia, is turning the Middle East into a battlefield for major powers.

The policy of deep enmity, which has lasted for almost ten years, has not brought strategic success to either side. On the other hand, an alternative policy on the Middle East launched by the new Joe Biden administration, which implies discussing urgent problems with all parties in order to reduce the total influence of China and Russia, changed Washington's position towards Tehran. As a result, the US reduced its military presence in Yemen, since it does not want to cede Iran to China at all.

In other words, the current regional situation brings forward different conditions, forcing Riyadh to adjust the angle of its foreign policy vector accordingly. The same is true for Iran. Tehran is well aware that it is impossible to speak with the entire Arab world in the language of revolutionary ideas and armed insurgents. Saudi Arabia is a strong and influential country. Long-term confrontation with it isolates Iran, further reducing its opportunities. In this context, reconciliation with Riyadh is more beneficial for Tehran.

Certainly, the prospect of establishing friendly relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the near future does not look very convincing. However, the very fact of the beginning of the talks shows that the leaders of both countries are aware of the impossibility of a policy of mutual hostility and the use of force to resolve controversial issues. For the sake of common Islamic values ​​and humanity, it will be necessary to make mutual concessions. But, apparently, this process will not be easy.

The beginning of the talks once again proves that religion is not the true cause of religious wars, but, as always, it’s only a tool in the hands of instigators of these wars.