ON THE EDGE

The rapidly worsening situation in Afghanistan in recent months led to the fiasco of the former Afghan government led by President Ashraf Ghani and the rise to power of the radical Taliban movement. For many, it still remains a mystery how it was possible that more than 300,000 soldiers and officers of the regular Afghan army who received frequent trainings and experience in military exercises, and equipped with weapons supplied by the leading armies of the world, was defeated by a radical group, a movement that consisted of paramilitary units coordinated and directed by untrained commanders.

Last days of the Ghani government

The rapid withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, which was more like an escape, has given unprecedented confidence to the Taliban, which in recent months have secured control over 80-85% of the country's territory. The Taliban's tactic was to gain control over rural areas and provide access to the country's external borders. Afghanistan does not have a direct access to the sea, hence the provision of all the necessary goods is ensured through land routes that connect the country with neighbouring states. By cutting off government forces from sources of supply, the Taliban forced them to complete defeat.

According to information received in late July and early August, battles between government forces and Taliban militants took place around three main cities in the west and southwest of the country: Herat, Lashkar Gakh and Kandahar. These are not only large settlements, but also the most important transport hubs of the country, from where communication lines move in different directions in the east of Afghanistan. Blockade of these cities very soon cut off them from the food supply. Just a few days before the fall of Kabul, these cities were also captured by the advancing forces of the Taliban. Thus, all communications in the east of the country came under the control of the movement.

Until recently, the government forces managed to hold the territories inhabited mainly by Uzbeks and Hazaras, the Turkic peoples of Afghanistan, which may hint at the role of the ethnic factor in the civil war. Uzbeks led by Marshal Dostum also controlled the Uzbek-Afghan section of the border - the only section of Afghanistan's external border that the Taliban could not take under its control until early August. The Shiite Hazaras, who have always enjoyed the patronage of Iran, were particularly active in resisting the Taliban. They operated as part of the anti-Taliban militia movement. Earlier in the late 1990s, the Taliban carried out aggressive actions against the Hazaras, including pogroms and demonstrative executions. The current members of the Hazara resistance, mindful of those days, fiercely resisted in order to prevent a repetition of such scenarios.

The area of populated by the Hazaras in the centre of Afghanistan is connected with Kabul and a place of compact residence of Afghan Uzbeks. This allowed government forces to maintain control over the centre of Afghanistan for a relatively long time. Until very recently, the Kabul authorities have kept constant communication with two countries - Uzbekistan and Pakistan.

At the same time, given the problems of dialogue between Islamabad and Kabul, the Afghan government relied more on communications linking Afghanistan and Uzbekistan, which increases the role and importance of Tashkent in the current situation around Afghanistan.

Remarkably, Azerbaijan still remains an important link in the delivery of goods to Afghanistan. The Lapis Lazuli transport corridor, passing through Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, also goes through the territory of Uzbekistan, providing a connection between Afghanistan and European countries.

Everything is in the past... What is in the future?

This was until the afternoon of August 15, i.e. until the presidential plane with the then president Ashraf Ghani flew in an unknown direction, taking with it an entire era in the life of Afghanistan.

After the Taliban came to power, interest in the movement increased dramatically. Moreover, while the majority of ordinary people show this interest out of pure curiosity, influential political circles in various countries, especially in the neighbouring countries, are interested for practical reasons.

Meanwhile, the movement itself is trying in every possible way to ensure its political legitimacy within the country and abroad. The Taliban is known to be one of the organisations listed by the UN as an international terrorist organisation. Therefore, no government can establish official contacts with the Taliban. Although other kind of contacts have been in full swing for many years. Taliban leaders are aware that in its current form, no one will conduct any negotiations with the self-proclaimed government in Kabul. So, it is impractical to talk about any international big projects, especially large investments and loans for Afghanistan. So the Taliban leaders declared that they would form a government of national accord from the representatives of the country's leading political forces as soon as possible.

But will it be that easy to do? After Ashraf Ghani fled the country, the First Vice-President of Afghanistan, Amrullah Saleh, declared that he was the interim head of state and promised to continue the armed struggle against the Taliban. He was joined by Ahmad Masud, the son of the legendary Ahmad Shah Massoud, who called on Taliban opponents at home and abroad to support him in Panjshir and resist the enemy.

Thousands of people for political reasons rush abroad in search of a good life. Hundreds of Afghans are storming Kabul airport to leave the country for good. Others are desperate to take up arms to protect themselves and their families from possible reprisals.

Thus, Afghanistan found itself on the brink of a new civil war. Undoubtedly, the representatives of the forces resisting the Taliban will not have a shortage of foreign aid. Consequently, this war runs the risk of becoming a long-term one...

War is war, but you have to live!

One of the most interesting questions is what happens to all those large-scale projects that included Afghanistan? The fiasco of the Ghani regime, which, as it turned out, relied only on the US military support, finally undermined confidence in the effectiveness of any security system in Afghanistan. But for the overwhelming majority of such projects, safety is a basic condition for their implementation.

For example, the TAPI project - the large-scale Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. A lot of money has already been spent on its implementation. Since a significant portion of the project passes through the territory of Afghanistan, it is not very clear who can guarantee its safety under the current conditions. The TAPI project, which until recently has been estimated at $10b, is meant to deliver 33 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas to India annually. The length of the pipeline will be 1,814 km (214 km in Turkmenistan, 774 km in Afghanistan, 826 km in Pakistan). Although the construction of the pipeline started back in December 2015, it is unknown when it will be completed, especially under such conditions. Earlier, representatives of the Taliban expressed their interest in the implementation of the project. But we yet to know who from among the project representatives will deal with the movement, which is officially recognised as terrorist.

Another project is the Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway, which also faces uncertainty. It was meant to be the first Trans-Afghan railway in the history of the country. It was supposed to connect Central and South Asia and encourage additional foreign investment to the country. Now, most likely, we will have to forget about investments and the road itself.

The same is true about the international transport route Lapis Lazuli Corridor, which was given political support by the Istanbul Process. This is a regional initiative of Afghanistan and Turkey, launched in 2011. This format was a platform for political dialogue and regional cooperation to promote stability, peace and prosperity in Afghanistan and the region as a whole. Participants of the Istanbul Process were Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan and the UAE. The last conference of the initiative was held on March 29-30, 2021 in Dushanbe, but now...

This is how this long-suffering region lives today, between the hammer of the Taliban and the anvil of socio-economic problems. Although the word living is not an entirely accurate definition in relation to Afghanistan. For the most part, it survives... But this is a very generous land with rich resources that can turn this country into a flourishing land, which its inhabitants, alas, can only dream of for now...