CRIMEAN PLATFORM VS TURKISH-RUSSIAN PARTNERSHIP?

Situation in Ukraine remains one of the most relevant problems in world politics, including the conflict in Donbass, and the international crisis around Crimea. It was also evident on August 23, when the constituent forum of the Crimean Platform was held in Kiev. The event caused a sharp reaction from Russia. In this context, it is interesting to review the possible impact of the escalating crisis on Russia’s relations with Turkey, which also joined the forum in Kiev.

Kiev Forum

The idea of establishing the Crimean Platform was first voiced almost a year ago, when Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, in his speech at the 75th session of the UN General Assembly, called on the international community to create a "platform for the de-occupation of Crimea." The implementation of the initiative was slated for the 30th anniversary of Ukraine's independence, which was celebrated on 24 August.

"The Crimean Platform will work constantly, until the return of Crimea to Ukraine. We do not hold the summit for the sake of just holding it. Crimea should remain on our agenda for another seven years,” defined Zelensky the main objective of the forum.

The last thesis mentioned in the statement of the Ukrainian president is quite remarkable. Zelensky, in fact, complained of the lack of attention of the international community to the Crimean issue, which, unlike the conflict in Donbass, is practically absent from the global political agenda. Apparently, Kiev seriously intends to correct this situation, as demonstrate the following statements by Zelensky: “We understand that our independent country will never be able to return Crimea alone. We need effective support at the international level and support at a completely new level for the de-occupation of the Ukrainian peninsula. The synergy of our efforts should make Russia sit down at the negotiating table for the return of our peninsula."

Despite the absence of most of the invited world leaders at the forum, Kiev has managed to attract quite close attention to it, which is confirmed by the participation of representatives of 46 countries and international organisations in the event, including 9 presidents, 4 prime ministers, 17 foreign ministers or their deputies. The rest of the participating states were represented by speakers of parliaments and ambassadors of countries accredited to Ukraine. Participation of the President of the EU Council Charles Michel and Secretary General of the Council of Europe Maria Peicinovic-Buric should also be regarded as a serious gesture of support for Kiev from the European institutions.

The final declaration of the forum confirmed that the objective of the Crimean Platform was to ensure "the peaceful end of the temporary occupation" of Crimea and "the restoration of Ukraine's control over this territory in full compliance with international law." Moreover, as President Zelensky said, the declaration may also be signed by other countries. In particular, it "will always contain a line for the signature of the representative of the Russian Federation."

However, Moscow's position on the Crimean Platform leaves no doubt that for Russia the issue of Crimea’s reunification with Ukraine is closed. Even before the Kiev forum, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the Crimean Platform "an artificially created Russophobic action". Immediately after the opening of the forum, spokesman of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, said that the Kremlin treats the forum in Kiev "as extremely unfriendly towards our country, as an anti-Russian event." Some time later, Moscow sent a message with a more practical content. According to the Spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, the participation of states and organisations in the Crimean Platform will be recognised "as an unfriendly move toward Russia, as a direct encroachment on its territorial integrity."

Thus, we can confidently say that the relations between Russia and the West, in particular European countries, which unequivocally support Ukraine in its confrontation with Moscow, will get worse in the future. It is also worth considering the further prospects for a dialogue between Russia and Turkey, which are based on a solid foundation of partnership, but at the same time have certain contradictions, including on the Ukrainian front.

Ukraine’s integrity principle

The Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu also joined the Crimean Platform. His statements clearly define Ankara's approach to the Crimean problem. Having stated that the forum opens "the page of a peaceful, long-term path for the return of Crimea to Ukraine, because Crimea is Ukraine" and will play an "important role in the return of Crimea and the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders", Cavusoglu expressed Turkey's readiness "together with other partner countries to defend the territorial integrity of Ukraine."

Ankara's categorical position on this issue is not something new, since it has unequivocally supported Ukraine from the very beginning of the Crimean crisis. Thus, Cavusoglu said that “seven years have passed since the illegal annexation of Crimea. Our support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine remains strong. Our voice resounds strongly among other voices against such a blatant violation of international law. We are gathered here to reaffirm our solidarity and dedication to our struggle."

Warm, friendly relations between Ankara and Kiev have been developing since the very beginning of Ukrainian independence. After the collapse of the USSR, Turkey became not only a good neighbour for Ukraine, but also a close friend, on whom Ukrainians can always rely in strengthening their sovereignty and potential as an independent state. Ankara has fundamentally supported the territorial integrity of Ukraine since the beginning of the 2014 conflict with Russia. An important component of friendly, partnership relations between Turkey and Ukraine is the growing strategic cooperation in the military sphere. Ankara supplies Kiev Bayraktar TB2 drones, discusses the possibility of building corvette-class ships for the Ukrainian Navy. Ukraine, in turn, intends to ensure joint production of An-178 transport aircraft with Turkey, and also intends to sell 50% of Motor Sich plant to Ankara, which specialises, in particular, in aircraft and helicopter construction.

However, do all these aspects of Turkish-Ukrainian cooperation mean that Ankara is challenging Moscow in some form? Definitely not, because Turkey has always made it clear to both Russia and the whole world that its policy in the international arena was based solely on its own national interests.

Turkey is increasingly strengthening its status as an independent player and key actor of world and regional affairs. But its foreign policy objectives are in no way against friendly countries. Friendship between Ukraine and Turkey does not have any anti-Russian context for one simple reason: Russia is also one of Turkey's closest partners and friends, and the strategic cooperation between these two powers is yielding successful results in various significant international platforms, in particular, in Syrian, Libya, and South Caucasus.

Can we assume that the Ukrainian platform becomes a bone of contention between Ankara and Moscow? The answer is negative, as there are a number of good reasons for this.

Substantial differences and solid foundations

First, there is a growing strategic interaction between Russia and Turkey, a NATO member state. Paradoxic but true: the dialogue between the Russian Federation and NATO has dropped to a minimum, while partnership between Moscow and Ankara is growing steadily. Moreover, Turkey, despite all possible pressure from the US and NATO, and even American sanctions, is purposefully stepping up military-technical cooperation with Russia. Remarkably, on the day of the Kiev forum, it was reported that Turkey was going to conclude a new contract for the supply of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems.

It’s also important to note that Turkey and Russia continue to jointly implement a series of project in the energy sector. Just a few days before the resonant Crimean Platform, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a telephone conversation with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin about Ankara's expectations regarding the increase of Russian gas supplies via the Turkish Stream gas pipeline.

As to the specific position of Ukraine in the Russian-Turkish dialogue, Turkey expresses its fundamental commitment to the territorial integrity of Ukraine, but at the same time makes it clear that its position has nothing to do with the anti-Russian approach of Western countries. Ankara is not a tool in the big global game of the US and the EU against Russia. Therefore, no one should expect that Turkey may deviate from its current course toward exacerbating relations with Moscow, or attempts to influence Kiev to achieve even greater confrontation between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

In addition, we should not forget that Turkey's position on Crimea also contains a pronounced historical dimension, taking into account a significant ethnic factor. Therefore, Cavusoglu mentioned in his speech at the Kiev forum that the “Crimean Platform is also about people's questions”, meaning, first of all, the indigenous population of the peninsula – Crimean Tatars, whose representatives also live in Turkey.

Crimea is historically connected with Turkey, and the Crimean Tatars are associated with the Turks by blood and linguistic kinship, cultural and religious unity. Can Turkey in this situation remain indifferent to the tragic turns taking place in the fate of Crimean Tatars? Or turn a blind eye to reports that since 2014 more than 30,000 Crimean Tatars have left their homeland – Crimea? Therefore, Ankara's position on the Crimean problem should certainly be analysed taking into account the interests of Crimean Tatars, a considerable part of which sees their future in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, speaking from well-known positions on the Crimea issue, Turkey also unequivocally draws an analogy with the Russian attitude to the Cyprus problem. Moscow does not recognise the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, and demands the creation of a "unified Cypriot state." But can Russia expect that Ankara recognises the "reunification of Crimea with Russia" in this case?

All these factors show that Ankara is not building its Ukrainian policy to create certain threats to Russia. Consequently, the processes on the Ukrainian platform, which cause certain disagreements between Moscow and Ankara, should not affect the further development of their bilateral partnership. Undoubtedly, both Ankara and Moscow are interested in this. This is also confirmed by the "special" statement of Dmitry Peskov, who admitted that Russian-Turkish relations were not free from "significant differences", including the Crimean issue, but they are based on a real, solid foundation for trade, economic and investment cooperation.

Undoubtedly, this statement is also a serious message to those global powers that expect the deterioration of the dialogue between Moscow and Ankara, particularly due to "significant differences" on the issue of Crimea. But this scenario is not acceptable to Russia and Turkey, which are implementing a strategy of strengthening bilateral partnerships.