MARCH OF DEFEAT

On September 27, Baku and Yerevan commemorated the first anniversary of the war, which is called the 44-day, Second Garabagh War, and often the Patriotic War in Azerbaijan.

Any war definitely means human casualties. Both Azerbaijan and Armenia paid a tribute to the victims of the war. It is believed that the grief has no nationality. But there is still a difference. An Azerbaijani soldiers died on their own land, while Armenians on a foreign one occupied by them 30 years ago. In Baku, the Memorial Day is paid a due tribute through the prism of Azerbaijan’s brilliant victory, and the triumph of historical justice, while in Armenia – through the bitterness of historical defeat.

Azerbaijan did not just liberate its territory. It also dispelled the myth of the ‘invincible Armenian army’ and demonstrated in the field the power of its army. And now Azerbaijan is confidently converting its military success into political and diplomatic dividends. While the 44-day hostilities stopped on November 10, 2020, political shifts triggered by this war are gaining momentum in the entire region.

That’s why many experts are confident that Armenia will still have to endure the grim consequences of the defeat.

Dismal holiday

On September 21, 2021, Armenia celebrated its main public holiday, the Independence Day. It was an anniversary date, as Armenia proclaimed its sovereignty in Yerevan 30 years ago. Large scale celebrations were held in the country that day, including a march of Armenian security forces, and a ‘spectacular’ drone show on the Republic Square in Yerevan.

However, the expected effect was spoiled. Many experts in Armenia and beyond now wonder if it was worth organising a ‘drone show’, if the Armenian citizens associate even a word ‘drone’ with the attacks of Azerbaijani UAVs, which the Armenian army simply had nothing to counter? Maybe they should have thought about the development of unmanned technologies earlier?

Many Armenians believe that it would be better to refrain from celebrations at all. Even though it was an anniversary date, but celebrating it so pompously after such a miserable defeat in the war is nonsense, at least. Celebrations looked rather ridiculous because the search for the bodies of the dead soldiers is still underway in the forests of Garabagh. In fairness, many politicians, mainly from the pro-Russian camp, including Robert Kocharian and Artur Vanetsian, also opposed the celebrations.

It was also surprising to watch a solemn march of military units along the streets of Yerevan instead of a full-swing parade.

No parade...

Holding a parade on this day had been a long-standing tradition in Armenia on the Independence Day. Five years ago, on September 21, 2016, the parade included the military personnel of Armenia, the Russian military base in Gyumri and the units of the so-called Nagorno-Karabakh  army marching as a single formation across the Republic Square. The incident caused an understandable and fair indignation in Azerbaijan. There was a demonstration of military equipment too. Moreover, the Iskander missiles ceremoniously rolled across the Republic Square. These are the missiles that caused a scandal following the results of the 44-day war. They were used to hit Shusha, but it is still not clear who gave and fulfilled the order to strike at the city.

This time the parade was shortened to a military march through the streets of Yerevan. Undoubtedly, Armenian authorities wanted the best. But as a result, they’ve only worsened the situation.

It was too risky from a political point of view to bring the Garabagh Units to the streets. Russian military deployed in Gyumri show restraint and prefer to refrain from a deliberate demonstration of military brotherhood with Armenia amid the scandal with Iskanders and the peacekeeping mission in Garabagh. But the main and most painful thing is that it was impossible to demonstrate any military equipment in the solemn march through the streets of Yerevan. This is a clear reminder of the damage suffered by the armoured fleet of the Armenian army as a result of the war in Garabagh. Local experts estimated the loss of equipment at more than $4 billion.

News coming from the state border of Azerbaijan and Armenia are not pleasant either. The process of border demarcation has not really started yet, but the Armenian military has been pushed out of many advantageous positions. Many heights, sections of strategic roads, power plants are now controlled by Azerbaijan and Armenia cannot do anything about it. Its army and power structures are unable to solve even the elementary tasks of ensuring the country's security. Therefore, Yerevan has to rely only on external guarantees.

But even such a defeated army poses a threat to Armenia itself.

... while the coup is still real

On September 13, Armenian President Armen Sarkissian made large-scale personnel changes in the army. Kamo Kochunts was appointed the First Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Sahak Ohanyan stepped down as the Chief of the Medical Administration of the Armenian army, Poghos Poghosyan, who has been the Head of the Armament Directorate of the Armenian Armed Forces since 2016, was dismissed. These are only the recent changes of the personnel shuffle. In July, experts widely discussed a wave of personnel changes in the military, including the dismissal of Defense Minister Vagharshak Harutyunyan and his deputy Suren Sahakyan. At the same time, the commander of the 3rd Army Corps, Major General Grigory Khachaturov, the son of Yuri Khachaturov, the former CSTO Secretary General, was dismissed from his post. Nikol Pashinyan initiated a lawsuit against the latter, by the way. Experts recalled that in February 2021, Khachaturov signed an appeal as part of the failed coup attempt undertaken by the then Chief of the General Staff of Armenia Onik Gasparyan and demanded the resignation of the government.

Also, a whole series of trials have been initiated in Armenia against middle-level officers accused of cowardice, unauthorised abandonment of positions during the war, etc.

It is possible to assume that after such a devastating defeat of Armenia, an analysis of the lessons learned was necessary. We can also expect lawsuits against individual officers, as well as attempts to disguise during these trials the true reasons for Armenia's defeat, which can be linked not to middle-ranking officers, but figures of higher rank and status.

Meanwhile, there is a certain political risk, which feeds illusions in the Armenian society about a possible act of revenge.

The ongoing events in Armenia look like the continuation of Pashinyan's purge in the army, which he started immediately after coming to power in the country. Even then, the prime minister saw a real threat to himself mainly among the officers of Garabagh origin. Today, when many Armenians openly call Pashinyan a capitulator, the risks have only increased.

In February, the army tried to stage a mutiny led by Onik Gasparyan. However, it ended with the resignation of Gasparyan himself. But the current personnel reshuffle and arrests leave no doubt: the threat of a military mutiny in Pashinyan's circle is still real.

Next time Pashinyan may not be lucky though.