MUTUAL EXHAUSTION

Croatia became the last state admitted to the EU eight years ago. Since then, Brussels has kept repeating the phrase “enlargement remains the key policy of the European Union” like a mantra, although the reality seems to be different. The countries of the Western Balkans do not believe these assurances either. Some of them, like North Macedonia, have been stuck as the EU candidates for as long as 16 years. Moreover, the EU even refuses to name a specific time frame for considering the issue of enlargement for such countries.

The six Western Balkan countries are at different stages of the path towards EU membership. Montenegro and Serbia have advanced more, having started formal accession negotiations many years ago. Albania and North Macedonia wait for the formal launch of negotiations, while Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina are potential candidates.

Back in 2003, at the first EU-Balkan summit, the EU leaders promised the countries of this region to admit them as soon as they finished the necessary reforms and fulfil the mandatory requirements. Alas, this promise has been forgotten for 15 years. After all, the second summit took place only in 2018, where they finally announced the possible date of the long-awaited discussions on the issue of accession to be 2025.

But then came the COVID-19 pandemic, the associated global economic crisis and Europe once again had no time for the Balkans. That said, the holding of summits became more regular, with the last taking place on October 6-7. Before assuming the post of presidency in the EU, Slovenia proposed to move the date of the integration of the Balkan countries to 2030. The idea was supported not only by candidates, but also by many EU members. For example, the former Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz admitted that "without a specific date, the pace of admission is lost."

It would seem that hour X has come, since the majority supported the proposal, and the issue will be resolved positively! But something went wrong. Yes, there was a final declaration of the summit with the following routine statement: "The EU reaffirms its commitment to the enlargement process..." There were many promises again, like investments of 30 billion Euro, including 9 billion Euro as grants, aid to overcome the COVID-19 crisis and economic problems, etc. But the most important statement that the Balkans were waiting for – the deadline for admission to the EU – was not there.

Everyone, including the EU leadership, understands perfectly well that empty promises and delay in making decisions is not a good thing not only for the countries of the region, but for the EU as a whole. Otherwise, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen would not admit that the existing situation "threatens our position and our leverage in the region." Indeed, as noted in Brussels, uncertainty about the future of the Western Balkans strengthens regional antagonisms and expands the possibilities of other powers, primarily China, Russia, Turkey, and the Persian Gulf countries, to expand their influence in Europe.

However, despite all these warnings, the outcome of the recent summit was quite predictable. Indeed, among the EU members there are many sceptics who are afraid of accepting poorer countries and those which do not have established democratic traditions. And there are plenty of other problems in the Western Balkans, including the ongoing disputes over borders, interethnic and religious conflicts, and many more.

Mysterious document

Ideas about changing state borders in the Western Balkans are not welcome in Europe. However, rumours about a certain EU document proposing a revision of the borders established after the collapse of Yugoslavia surfaced suddenly in the spring.

Document entitled Western Balkans - the way forward states that the main obstacles to the faster integration of the Balkan states into the EU are the unresolved national problems of Serbs, Croats, and Albanians. As a solution, anonymous authors proposed annexing the Bosnian Autonomous Republic of Srpska to Serbia, integrating the cantons of Bosnia with a predominantly Croatian population into Croatia, uniting Kosovo with Albania, while simultaneously creating an autonomous Serbian region in the north of Kosovo.

Author of this document is claimed to be the Prime Minister of Slovenia Janez Jansa, who sent it to President of the European Council Charles Michel as a proposal on what to do in the region after Slovenia becomes EU President in July, Reuters reported.

Interestingly, neither Brussels nor the Balkan countries officially denied the idea, since the document did not pass through official channels, hence no need to comment on it. At the same time, everyone recognizes that the redrawing of borders of the former Yugoslavia will open a Pandora's box and will probably lead to new wars.

In addition to borders, another acute problem in the Balkans is religious intolerance.

Serbs, Croats and Bosnian Muslims are Europeans of Slavic origin. They speak a language that is linguistically identical and was formerly called Serbo-Croatian. Serbs are Eastern Orthodox Christians, Croats are Catholics, and Bosnian Muslims are South Slavs Islamised as a result of the Ottoman Turkish conquest. It is religion in combination with ethnic myths that most clearly shows the differences and boundaries between these groups. And nationalist and religious fanatics are actively inflating these differences.

Mini Schengen

“With the accession to the European Union, the borders between member states become less significant, which provides a wider space for the coexistence of multiple national identities,” says a document adopted in May by the leaders of the Western Balkan countries during a summit held as part of the Brdo-Brioni process.

The idea behind the process initiated ten years ago by Slovenia is to bring countries closer to each other and to solve the problems on the way to European integration. Despite some disagreements concerning the problems with the borders, the next Brdo-Brioni summit demonstrated the readiness of the majority of the Western Balkan countries to join the EU as soon as possible.

While the EU is considering whether to expand or not, Serbia, Albania, and North Macedonia have decided to abolish border controls among themselves starting from 2023. Initially, they came up with a nice name mini-Schengen, but then, however, they renamed it to Open Balkans. It was also decided to simplify trilateral trade, open up their labour markets, and cooperate in the fight against natural disasters.

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Kosovo have been invited to join the process, but they have so far refused the invitation. They fear that Serbia, the dominant country in this small union, will try to use it as a lever in solving problems in bilateral relations. For example, Bosnia and Herzegovina has problems with the Republika Srpska, Montenegro – with the role of the Serbian Orthodox Church in its territory, and Kosovo – with Serbia's non-recognition of its independence. Secondly, as Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti said, Open Balkans is more like "Balkans open for influence from the East, especially from Russia and China."

No guarantees

Since the end of the EU-Balkan summit, many in the Western Balkans have a feeling that the regional countries are not only far away from the EU membership, but are farther from each other than ever, local news outlets report. Not only because the states of this European region do not meet the criteria for accession, but also because the EU is not willing to accept new members.

Apparently, there are many reasons. Firstly, the EU has a lot of problems in itself, associated both with global cataclysms, such as the migration crisis, the ongoing pandemic and its economic consequences, and with internal struggles. Secondly, since decisions in the EU are made unanimously, the refusal of even any single member state can destroy the expectations of other member states. That is, even if the central executive branch of the EU wants to expand the union, it is highly dependent on national governments, which have the right to veto negotiations.

For example, Bulgaria requires North Macedonia to recognise that its culture and language have Bulgarian roots. Slovakia, Romania, Greece, Cyprus, and Spain do not recognise Kosovo as an independent state, etc.

All this gradually leads to the Western Balkan countries losing their patience. Opinion polls show that 26% of respondents in the region do not believe their countries will ever join the EU. Some opposition politicians in Serbia even suggest that the Serbian authorities withdraw their application to join the EU.

Undoubtedly, the economies of the EU and the Western Balkans are closely interconnected. The regional states import almost 70% of their goods from the EU and export more than 80% of their goods to the union.

But this is not a guarantee of political preferences, let alone protection from external influence.