INTERESTING RELATIONS

Perhaps, Turkey and Russia are the most contradictory partners in the modern world. Despite the difference of interests, they still can build long-term and mutually beneficial relations. Repeated attempts made recently by various players to clash Ankara with Moscow, to transform their relations to a confrontation ended in vain. The main reason is the highly pragmatic approach demonstrated by both countries in building a strategic line in bilateral relations. From this point of view, Turkish-Russian cooperation can even be called exemplary.

Frank dialogue

On September 29, immediately after his return from the 76th session of the UN General Assembly, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Sochi to meet with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Many observers noted that this sequence of visits was not accidental. In New York, the Turkish leader discussed issues mainly related to Ankara's participation in building relations with its Western partners and was made various proposals to join anti-Russian alliances or political actions against the interests of the Kremlin. Therefore, Ankara could show its strong side during the negotiations with Russia if it rejected these Western proposals.

During the official part of the meeting in front of television cameras, President Erdogan said that he “met with different people and listened to various proposals”, particularly regarding the prospects of military-technical cooperation with Russia. However, not only has Ankara any intention to deviate from its previous plans, but also is thinking about new prospects for cooperation with Russia in this area.

Two days before his visit to Sochi, in his interview with CBS, the Turkish president said that he was not going to abandon the purchase the S-400 air defense system. The US State Department immediately reacted to this statement. He urged Turkey "at all levels and whenever possible not to accept the S-400 system and to refrain from purchasing any additional Russian military equipment." After two days of silence, already in Sochi, Erdogan gave a clear answer to the American Department of State, stating that he remained committed to his previous position on the issue. The moment for the response was not chosen incidentally. The statement of the Turkish president has been demonstratively approved by President Putin, which was a promising sign of productive discussions in the future.

As a result, the parties agreed to continue negotiations on the supply of the second batch of S-400 air defense systems, which can be transferred to Turkey together with some of the important technologies for the production of this complex. In addition, the parties discussed the possibility of cooperation in shipbuilding, space exploration and the production of air-jet aircraft engines. That is, the Turkish President once again made it clear that pressure on his country can only have negative consequences on the pressing side.

At present, the Turkish-Russian dialogue, despite the obvious differences in positions, is moving towards active development and further development of interests. Over the past years, Turkish-Russian cooperation has contributed to the development of a stable security system in the north of the Middle East, the South Caucasus, Central Asia, and North Africa. For many regional participants, this means strengthening their own foreign policy line to maintain a multi-vector approach.

With all the difference in their interests, both sides are trying to implement joint economic and political projects. Unblocking communications in the South Caucasus is one of such important geo-economic projects. They are reviewing the possibility of increasing the volume of trade, as well as mutual investments. In this context it is noteworthy to mention the agreement between Ankara and Moscow to hold the Supreme State Council of the two countries in 2021 to discuss the strategic prospects of bilateral contacts and decisions on investments in key sectors of the economies of the two countries.

Economy as a driver of interaction

In recent years, Russian foreign policy has been more focused on relations with Turkey. After all, Turkey is becoming a significant transit hub for the delivery of goods to the Mediterranean countries and in the opposite direction, especially in the context of the growing volume of trade operations. A well-functioning system of communications between Turkey and Russia, as well as increasing their efficiency are one of the priorities in terms of bilateral trade and improving trade with neighbouring countries. Therefore, the resumption of direct railway communication between Turkey and Russia through the territories of Azerbaijan and Armenia, promoted by Ankara in negotiations with Moscow, receives support.

Over the past six months, over 30 million tons of cargo from Russia have passed through the ports of Turkey. If a share of this freight traffic goes through the railway lines of the South Caucasus, it will create a serious synergetic effect, encouraging the development of economic ties not only between countries, but also regions. This will make a significant contribution to the consolidation of peace and stability.

Thus, Turkish-Russian cooperation in trade and economic spheres gradually becomes an important factor for the development of a stable system of regional security that meets the interests of both states.

In recent months, development indicators of the Turkish and Russian economies have significantly improved, which contributes to the restoration of the level of trade and economic relations between the two countries to the pre-pandemic indicators. Due to the lockdown restrictions last year, trade operations between the both countries decreased by 19.5% compared to 2019 ($21 billion). However, during the first six months of this year, trade between Russia and Turkey increased by 40.4%, to $13.9 billion. The pre-pandemic indicators of the volume of mutual trade in 1H2019 were exceeded by 18% both in terms of Russian exports to Turkey (+12.5% against 1H2019) and imports (+42%). It is expected that by the end of this year, bilateral trade may exceed the indicators of 2019 by several billion dollars.

It is no coincidence that the parties agreed to increase not only the volume of mutual trade, but also investment cooperation. Flagship of this cooperation is the construction of a nuclear power plant in Akkuyu. But Ankara is not limited to this project only. During the meeting in Sochi, Mr. Erdogan suggested his Russian counterpart to think about the construction of two more nuclear power plants in Sinop and Igneada on the Black Sea coast. Russia reacted positively to this proposal.

Undoubtedly, the implementation of these projects will significantly increase the volume of investments and further deepen the level of industrial and technological cooperation between the two countries.

Partnership for security

In Sochi, the presidents of Russia and Turkey reaffirmed their common commitment to the Syrian agreements. In recent years, Ankara has not been satisfied with the flurry of activity of some terrorist organisations in this Arab country. Measures to neutralise them are approved by Moscow. Therefore, the agreement to continue the fight against terrorism in Idlib is logical, given that Turkey is returning Syrian refugees and the main region where they return is Idlib. The safety of these people is important for both Ankara and Moscow. So far, about a million refugees accommodated in Turkey have returned to Syria and this process will continue in the coming months.

At the same time, Turkey continues to view Idlib as a stronghold for the Syrian opposition forces, which work closely with Ankara. And Moscow insists on the transfer of this territory under the control of the Syrian government forces, as well as other territories currently controlled by Turkey as soon as possible.

Just before Erdogan's meeting with Putin, the Russian military launched airstrikes on Afrin and Idlib, which caused a negative reaction from Turkey. In recent weeks, additional Turkish forces have been deployed to these areas. Ultimately, the Syrian army, with the support of the Russian military, would completely clean these areas from the Turkish presence and opposition forces. Meanwhile, Turkey made it clear that it was well prepared for a possible offensive. At the meeting in Sochi, Ankara and Moscow could adjust their plans. Russia most likely promised to postpone the offensive, while Ankara could promise to return part of its military back to Turkey, as well as speed up the process of disarming the militants.

Information about Turkey's alleged retreat from its positions is not real. According to the statement of the Turkish president following his meeting in Sochi, there are no changes in Turkey's position in Idlib and retreat was impossible. “Turkey remains committed to its duties to purge radical elements in the security corridor,” R. T. Erdogan said.

Among the problematic topics discussed in Sochi was also the issue of Russia's possible support for the organisations supported by the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) and its Syrian branch PYD, which are considered terrorist in Turkey. Mr. Erdogan openly announced that the US supported the PKK and PYD terrorists and asked Russia to distance itself from these structures, urging Russia to close their offices in Moscow. Turkey is not happy with the continued presence of PKK militants on the Turkish border, despite the agreement, according to which Russia is obliged to push PKK from the Turkish-Syrian border by 35 km.

Given Russia’s traditional ties with the Kurdish movement as a whole, one can hardly expect Moscow to take radical steps in this direction. But Russia can minimise its ties with PKK/PYD and reduce their presence along the Turkish borders.

All these issues can be solved should there be goodwill on both sides. Experience of Turkish-Russian cooperation in recent years is a good example.