GREEN LIGHT TO REFORMS

Results of presidential elections in Uzbekistan were not a surprise to anyone. It was enough to review the pre-election situation in the country and the balance of political forces to predict the outcome of the October 24, 2021 vote. As expected, Uzbek voters again supported the incumbent President Shavkat Mirziyoyev.

According to data shared by the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Uzbekistan, Mr. Mirziyoyev won the elections with 80.12% of the vote.

He was followed by the candidate from the People's Democratic Party of Uzbekistan Maqsuda Varisova supported by 6.63% of voters. The head of the National Democratic Party Milliy Tiklanish, Alisher Kadirov won 5.48%, Narzullo Oblomuradov of Ecological Party has 4.14%, and the leader of the Uzbek social democrats, Bahrom Abdukhalimov, – 3.39% of votes.

According to the Uzbek law, a public vote is considered valid if a third of the voters vote. The voter turnout in the current presidential elections was 80.4% (more than 16 million people).

Actively and transparently

Traditionally, election activity in Uzbekistan is quite high. Citizens are not indifferent to their future and go to the election polls early in the morning. They often go with their families. This can be even a whole neighbourhood or a good company of young friends. But such a large-scale turnout during the pandemic causes certain inconveniences to organizers, becomes it is necessary to avoid large crowds of people in closed spaces, to monitor compliance with other rules, etc. But, apparently, the organisers have taken all measures. For example, voters were allowed to enter the polling stations one by one, with their temperature measured and hands disinfected at entrance. It was also mandatory to wear medical masks, which were lowered only if a member of the commission wanted to verify the identity of the voter.

During the first half of the day, ballot boxes were almost half full at a number of polling stations. “We have 40% of votes cast by now,” chairman of one of the election commissions in Tashkent proudly reported to us, foreign journalists.

Both the ballot box and voting booths are transparent for the first time this year, as Uzbekistan has abandoned screens between the booths. So now you cannot enter the booth with your family. At the same time, taking shots of voter’s action inside the booth is not allowed, although the elections are transparent, but the voting is closed.

Ongoing reforms

In recent years, electoral laws of Uzbekistan have been significantly improved. The last parliamentary and presidential elections were held in accordance with the new Electoral Code adopted in 2019. The amendments made to the Code in 2021 significantly expanded the rights of all participants of the electoral process, including the media and observers.

By the way, 968 observers from 20 international organisations and 20 countries monitored the seventh presidential elections in Uzbekistan. The process was covered by 1,439 local and 223 foreign journalists. Moreover, one of the largest groups of media and observers were representatives of Azerbaijan. “Such a large-scale participation of international observers and the media is a record figure in the history of elections in Uzbekistan,” Zainiddin Nizamkhodjayev, Chairman of the Central Election Commission of Uzbekistan said.

Local voting process was followed by 64,500 observers from all five political parties of the country. For the first time, the process could be monitored online using 414 video cameras installed at 207 polling stations.

Almost all observation missions agree that the current presidential elections in Uzbekistan were free, democratic, peaceful, with a high turnout and in accordance with national legislation and international standards. Only the OSCE mission made a statement that the elections were held with insufficient competition and procedural violations.

Many European observers in Tashkent eye-witnessed the success of democratic transformations in recent years. “Our observations show that important reforms have been carried out in Uzbekistan, but democracy is a long and difficult process... Uzbekistan needs to continue to move in this direction. These elections showed that the democratic reforms of recent years must be continued in order to consolidate what has already been achieved,” Reinhold Lopatka, Special Coordinator of the OSCE observer mission, said at the final briefing.

OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) mission also noted that the presidential elections in Uzbekistan were held "amid ongoing reforms in social, economic, and political fields."

By the way, the large-scale reforms of recent years are one of the reasons for such an increased international attention to the last presidential elections in Uzbekistan.

Uzbekistan in international rankings

Remarkably, the first presidential term of Sh. Mirziyoyev was remembered for the significant liberalisation of domestic and foreign policy of Tashkent, improved relations with neighbouring states, increased involvement of the country in various regional formats, including CIS, SCO, EAEU, Turkic Council, which contributed to improving the business climate and creating favourable conditions for attracting foreign investment.

“According to the analysis of IMF and other prestigious rating agencies, Uzbekistan is one of the few countries that, despite the current difficult conditions, have managed to ensure financial and economic stability, recovery of industrial sectors and growth of economic activity. A similar statement was recently published in the analytical report of J. P. Morgan titled Uzbekistan: Soum'er Solstice (Uzbekistan’s Rise as the Sun). “Reflection of positive results of our reforms in various international ratings has created opportunities for Uzbekistan to enter international financial markets,” Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Uzbekistan to Azerbaijan Bahrom Ashrafkhanov said earlier in his interview. According to him, in 2021, foreign investors bought a total of more than $1 billion in Eurobonds.

In the World Bank's Doing Business report, Uzbekistan rose from 87th place in 2016 to 69th at the end of 2020. In the global Index of Economic Freedom (2021 Index of Economic Freedom), which is annually compiled by the Heritage Foundation together with The Wall Street Journal, Uzbekistan is already in 108th place among 178 other countries after improving its position by six points compared to the last year. Three years ago, in 2018, Uzbekistan was only 152nd in the same ranking.

No way back!

Apparently, the re-elected president will continue his course of reforms. According to Gazeta.uz, his strategy called New Uzbekistan assumes the further reduction of poverty by at least two times by 2027, development of digital economy, expanding judicial and legal reforms, increasing life expectancy, and improving public administration.

According to a ten-point strategy, GDP per capita should grow 1.6 times over the next five years, reaching $4,000. At the same time, the digital economy should become the main driver of economic growth. It’s planned to increase its volume by at least 2.5 times. “100 out of more than 700 public services are planned to be transferred to the private sector,” the program says.

No less ambitious plans are expected for attracting investments. Thus, over the next five years, the volume of investment to Uzbekistan should reach $120 billion, of which $70 billion will be foreign investments. It’s also planned to increased the share of private sector in GDP to 80%. Market liberalisation, reduction of the tax burden, elimination of monopoly in 25 fields of economy and many other reforms in various fields of social and economic life will also continue.

As one of the priorities of Mirziyoyev’s electoral program, it’s planned to continue the introduction of "consistent and deeply elaborated, pragmatic foreign policy and economic diplomacy."

The voting demonstrated that the Uzbek population gave a carte blanche to the old-new authorities to continue the reforms. Most of the citizens we interviewed expressed confidence that the second presidential term of Sh. Mirziyoyev will become a period of deep transformations in real political and economic dividends.

As the winner of the current presidential race, Mr. Mirziyoyev said in his first speech after the elections: “There is no way back. Now Uzbekistan will only move forward.”