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The Biden administration's decision to withdraw support for the construction of the East Mediterranean Pipeline (EastMed) raises a few geopolitical issues in one of the world's most tense regions.

EastMed was supposed to be a 1,900-km long pipeline to supply 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) of Israeli natural gas to Europe via Cyprus and Crete. The proposed route would have passed through waters contested by Ankara and Athens. The project was actively promoted by the US President Donald Trump. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo even personally joined the signing ceremony of the construction agreement, while Paris also promised support.

However, in January 2022 the Biden administration changed its mind. Washington was suddenly concerned about risks it had not noticed before. Thus, the informal letter to Greece, Cyprus, and Israel indicates that the construction of EastMed is questionable "for both environmental and economic reasons" (its implementation was estimated at $7-11 billion, which means higher gas bills for end consumers). Furthermore, the project is recognised as a "source of tension" that could destabilise the region by triggering a clash between Turkey and regional states. In other words, it is a 'red light'.

A promising dialogue

It is not surprising that Turkey interpreted the White House message very quickly and positively and set out to improve relations with Israel, including in the energy sphere. Israel also demonstrated its willingness to improve bilateral relations. After all, with the start of the Bennett-Lapid coalition government Israel’s dialogue with Turkey has become more promising. It is also reported that Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog may even visit Turkey in the future. Official visits of Israeli leaders to the country were suspended back in 2007, after the then President Shimon Peres visited Turkey at the invitation of former Turkish President Abdullah Gul. As of now, none of the sides have announced a date of a possible meeting between Erdogan and Herzog. The Israeli newspaper Haaretz has confirmed, however, that preliminary talks are underway.

Relations between Turkey and Israel worsened sharply in 2010 after the infamous incident on the Turkish ferry Mavi Marmara, which was on its way to deliver humanitarian aid to the Palestinian Gaza Strip. At the time, Israeli soldiers killed 10 activists and caused a major crisis in Turkish-Israeli relations. In 2016, the countries normalised their relations, but not to the former level of cooperation. In 2018, Turkey and Israel withdrew their ambassadors amid Trump's decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem.

Many Israeli politicians and officials believe that Ankara should also close the office of Hamas in Istanbul. Indeed, in addition to the energy dispute, the Palestinian issue is the overriding factor in Israel-Turkey relations. But it seems both sides can find compromises on that long-standing issue, if they want to. Therefore, all arguments show that Turkey and Israel have much more to gain from friendship than from hostility on any issue. For example, trade and tourism sectors have always developed well between the two states.

So it seems that Turkey was preparing in advance for the possibility of reconciliation with Israel. Last November, for example, Erdogan personally facilitated the release of Israeli tourists Natalie and Mordy Oknin arrested while taking photos of the presidential palace. In December, Erdogan made another striking conciliatory move when he met with local rabbis and Turkish-Jewish leaders to deliver a very specific message: "Relations with Israel are vital for security and stability in the region." The Turkish leader also condemned anti-Semitic sentiments. On 13 January, Erdogan called Herzog to personally express his condolences on the death of the latter’s mother, Aurora Herzog.

Gas ties

Meanwhile, many observers believe that one of the main topics of a possible meeting between Erdogan and Herzog could be the transportation of natural gas from the Mediterranean Sea. According to Erdogan, "Turkey can guarantee that gas from Israel will reach Europe... We had a positive experience in the past with the transit of Israeli gas to Europe through Turkish territory. We, as politicians, should ensure peace, not seek war," the Turkish leader said.

In this context, one important point is that the EastMed project was presented as an attempt to diversify energy supplies to Europe, i. e. to reduce Europe’s dependence on gas from Russia. Israeli intelligence reports reserves of 800bcm of natural gas, with the total reserves of 2.2tcm. It is obvious that the Americans are also competing for the European gas market offering liquefied gas (LNG) in every possible way. And apparently they do not need any rivals in this market. Thus, US suppliers hit the jackpot during the recent winter holidays, when European storage reserves reached historic lows, while prices, on the contrary, rose dramatically. Therefore, tankers with LNG supposed to reach Asia were diverted to the EU, which was much more profitable. As for the delivery of Israeli gas to Europe via Turkey, the cost of the projected deal is still high, which logically raises the same questions about its feasibility as they apply to EastMed. 

This is the most obvious explanation but it may not be that simple. It is likely that the US simply wants to bring the Mediterranean energy equation to a common (own) denominator and to see Turkey in it. The above document states that Washington (which, by the way, is neither directly involved in the region, nor was officially requested to provide funding for the project) is still "committed to physically connecting the EastMed energy system to Europe". Thus, it is possible that the main goal is quite different — Americans are trying to detach Turkey from its energy dependence on Russia. So EastMed may disappear as a form of implementation, but not as an idea, which will be implemented anyway. Especially since Turkey has long desired to become an energy hub with all the gas pipelines going to European consumers via its territory. Perhaps the Biden administration has realised that Turkey is still a NATO ally, has the second largest army in the alliance, is an important regional player and Washington has and will have no other such ally in the region. So why not help its ally to come on board? Especially now, when the tension in the Black Sea region is increasingly high.

It is too early to confirm a new page open in Turkish-American and Turkish-Israeli relations. There are too many factors affecting the developments. Yet these are intertwined issues: stronger ties with Israel could help Erdogan achieve better relations between Washington and Ankara and also with the UAE, Egypt and even Saudi Arabia.  Either way, there are only positive signs for Turkey. Being an experienced politician, Erdogan has probably got worried about Israel’s rapid rapprochement with all of Turkey's regional rivals in the Eastern Mediterranean (Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt) in recent years amid the construction of the Eastern Mediterranean pipeline. All these risks have now effectively been removed.

Meanwhile, the strengthening of relations between Turkey and Israel as well as between Turkey and the US, elimination of differences over hydrocarbons extraction in the Eastern Mediterranean will certainly be a positive background and stimulus for all countries in the Greater Middle East region. This will strengthen the geopolitical positions of the countries that belong to different alliances and with different national interests. Should the previously impossible trends like the Abraham Accords have already become a fact in the region, we can expect positive developments in the Palestinian issue as well.