YEREVAN-ISTANBUL: FLIGHT IS NORMAL?

Armenia and Turkey open air flights between each other. Turkish Ministry of Transport said the first charter flight between Yerevan and Istanbul will take place on February 2. Turkish Pegasus will provide flights to Armenia, while the Armenian FlyOne, prepared to be the national carrier, will take the passengers to Turkey.

First meetings between the Armenian and Turkish special negotiators — Serdar Kilic, former Turkish ambassador to the US, and Ruben Rubinyan, Deputy Speaker of the Armenian parliament — took place in Moscow. Details of the talks yet to be disclosed, but the sides give the signs of optimism.

Forecasts and realities

There is another reason for optimism. Azerbaijan regarded the talks between Armenia and Turkey very positively. Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Khalaf Khalafov expressed the position of Baku as follows: "Today it is required to develop the region in the direction of peace and stability. The only way that makes this possible is the normalisation of relations between the regional countries, rejection of enmity, strengthening of trust between the countries, development of economic ties, opening of communications and creation of an environment for cooperation between the states. Therefore, we welcome and support the establishment of Turkish-Armenian contacts initiated by Turkey. We believe that the normalisation of Turkish-Armenian relations will also contribute to the normalisation of Azerbaijani-Armenian relations. If Armenia wants to get out of the current difficult social, economic and political crisis, it must change its policy in the region, show good intentions, normalise relations, renounce enmity, gain the trust of other countries. To restore trust, the countries must recognise each other's sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of borders.”

There are speculations about Russia's position in this situation. For example, the former Armenian Deputy Minister of Defense, Artak Zakaryan, said that Yerevan would demand Moscow withdraw its base from Gyumri s soon as relations with Turkey improve. Many experts also see these talks as the West’s attempt to remove Armenia from Russia's influence and even bring it into NATO.

However, these speculations seem ungrounded simply because Armenia's special envoy at the talks with Turkey regularly meets with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko. In other words, Moscow and Yerevan coordinate their positions clearly. In September 2021, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said: "Moscow is ready to further promote the improvement of relations between Ankara and Yerevan and sees positive signals between the two countries.” Commenting on the upcoming meeting between Kilic and Rubinyan in January 2022, Zakharova said: "We are not part of that format. We have repeatedly expressed our principal position on bilateral relations between Turkey and Armenia, the establishment of dialogue, and normalisation of contacts. And we have contributed to this process in practice.”

So, theoretically there should be nothing to prevent the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation. Ankara has not raised any objections to this process. There should be no objections in Armenia, given that Armenians have accused Turkey and Azerbaijan of "blocking Armenia" for three decades.

However, it is Armenia that has to fulfil a difficult political and diplomatic task associated with negotiations with Turkey.

Who’s against reconciliation?

Negotiations with Turkey have initiated heated debates in the Armenian parliament. In addition to report that the representatives of the opposition demand from the Pashinyan administration, they also oppose the reconciliation with Turkey. For example, a deputy from I Have Honour Alliance, Hayk Mamijanyan, blamed Turkey for taking an active part in the 44-day war and said that the issue of reconciliation was of "national significance", hence it could not be resolved without the involvement of the Diaspora (which has an unprecedented influence on Armenian politics and public opinion).

The short history of attempted reconciliation between Armenia and Turkey goes back to 2010 and shows that a number of representatives of the Armenian diaspora, including Charles Aznavour and Arthur Chilingarov, have supported the dialogue. At the same time, the then Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, who made a special world tour to discuss the issue with the members of the Armenian diaspora, was met with protests and accusations of ‘betrayal’. Political ‘elite’ in the Diaspora were convinced that negotiations with Turkey should begin if only Ankara repented of the so-called Armenian Genocide and, most importantly, recognised the Treaty of Sevres, that is—Turkey will grant Armenia a part of its territory. What can we say? Well, only one thing. The residents of “Little Armenia” in Los Angeles, CA can speculate as much as they like about the real owner of the six eastern Anatolian Vilayets without any risk for themselves, since they do not pay political and economic costs of these fantasies anyway. Moreover, all the political structures of the Armenian Diaspora, which duly collect ‘national tribute’ and lobby for all kinds of ‘Armenian resolutions’, etc. should be thankful to the ‘hate trade’ with Turkey for their existence. And it seems they do not want to give up their ‘staff of life’ anyway.

Spectre of terrorism

Finally, the Dashnaks were categorically against reconciliation. Ishkhan Saghatelyan, a member of the opposition from the Hayastan bloc and Dashnaktsutyun party, explicitly stated that the opposition intended to wreck the Armenian-Turkish negotiations and possible concessions from the Armenian side. This will be done through a wide range of tools, from rallies to other actions.

Given the tradition of political terrorism among Armenians and the Dashnaktsutyun in particular, this is a serious and worrying statement.

ASALA, arguably the most notorious and dangerous Armenian terrorist group, which has carried out dozens of attacks on Turkish embassies and assassinated Turkish diplomats, has also released a statement on the 47th anniversary of its inception: "Current Armenian authorities ignore the existing difficult situation of the nation and the state, as well as the dangers and challenges threatening the existence and security of Garabagh. They shamelessly turn a blind eye to the almost daily threats expressed by the Azerbaijani leadership against the existence of Armenia and Garabagh. And now they are dubiously impatient to initiate a dialogue with Turkey on the grounds of the urgency of normalising relations.”

Apparently, the statement is hinting at the return of Armenian terror - both against the Turkish targets and those Armenian public figures who the terrorists label as traitors. And it cannot be ignored. It is therefore imperative not to underestimate the danger of Armenian terror acts.