DECLARATION BASED ON REALITY

Last summer, when Azerbaijan and Turkey signed the Shusha Declaration on allied relations, Moscow’s reaction to this historic event surprised many. As usual, we observed traditional hysteria in the Armenian and Russian media. However, Moscow’s official reaction was quite balanced, or rather adequate. It has put an end to claims about Ankara’s, hence NATO’s creating military bases just steps from the Russian border, etc. The Kremlin's position was in line with new regional realities set after the 44-day war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. However, those who tried to persuade Moscow that Azerbaijan posed a threat to Russia's security were disappointed when the Kremlin press service announced that Azerbaijan and Russia were going to sign a declaration on alliance very soon.

Declaration on Allied Cooperation between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation was signed in Moscow on February 22, 2022. This comprehensive document includes 43 points and covers all aspects of completely new relations between the two countries.

"This Declaration takes our relations to a level of an alliance. It is both a great privilege and a great responsibility. We have been approaching this day for quite a long time, building up our cooperation potential and relations based on sincerity, good neighbourliness, pragmatism, and consideration of mutual interests.

"The first paragraph of the Declaration says that the parties will build their relations on the basis of mutual respect for independence, state sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of borders and non-interference in each other's internal affairs," President Ilham Aliyev said in his press statement.

It is no coincidence that Mr. Aliyev emphasised the first point of the document, which, as he noted, is indicative of ‘the nature of our relations’. Being an experienced politician, Mr. Aliyev knows very well what questions the alliance with a country that claims to be a world power may raise in the society. Independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of borders and non-interference in internal affairs are the key principles on which all the following paragraphs of the declaration with Russia are based.

Moreover, the document mitigates possible risks for Azerbaijan associated with Russia's traditionally allied relations with Armenia, which still harbours territorial claims against Azerbaijan. According to paragraph 17 of the Moscow Declaration, 'the parties shall refrain from any actions, including those through third states, directed against each other'.

In this context, it is remarkable to analyse the reaction of Armenian politicians.

"Armenia is between three declarations," Armen Gevorgyan, an MP from the Armenia faction and former deputy prime minister of the country, wrote in his Telegram channel.

He noted the adoption of three important declarations after the 44-day war—the Shusha Declaration signed in June between Turkey and Azerbaijan, the Istanbul Declaration adopted at the Summit of Turkic States in November 2021, and the Moscow Declaration signed by Russia and Azerbaijan in February 2022. "As we can see, Armenia is not a direct party of any of these documents. Yet they all concern us to some extent," Mr. Gevorgyan noted. 

According to him, in order to have ‘an influence over Azerbaijan’ Russia is ready to compromise at the expense of its main ally in the region, Armenia, while Turkey is ready to help Azerbaijan gain new advantages in the region thanks to Armenia too. "We should ask what Armenia’s benefit will be in this process, or rather what else Armenia can lose," Aysor.am quoted Mr. Gevorgyan.

The following statement by the deputy speaker of the Armenian parliament, Hakob Arshakyan, clearly shows Yerevan's position on the Moscow declaration between Azerbaijan and Russia.

"If we say that we have an alliance with any country, does it mean that it has no right to establish relations with other states? If you think that Armenia can somehow influence these processes, I think there is no need to overestimate them,” Mr. Arshakyan said to reporters.

In other words, Yerevan starts to realise that it cannot influence the new regional realities. The only thing left to do is to build their policy in line with them.

To do this, Armenia will have to abandon its revanchist sentiments in the first place, which had been considerably fuelled by expectations of Russian support. As stated in paragraph 18 of the Moscow Declaration: “The Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan combine their efforts to counter and neutralise the threats of international terrorism, extremism and separatism...”

In other words, the declaration between Azerbaijan and Russia is yet another document that legally secures the irreversibility of the process of restoring Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and narrows the activities of Armenian separatists. Moscow's allied commitments also improve Baku's ability to get clearer answers to questions raised by the actions of Russian peacekeeping troops temporarily deployed in Karabakh.

Certainly, it doesn’t mean that Baku’s alliance with Moscow is in any way may be used against the third countries. Especially against Armenia, which is not just an ally, but an outpost of Russia in the South Caucasus.

"Parties shall develop bilateral political and military cooperation that meet their national interests and are not against third countries," paragraph 12 of the Declaration reads.

Azerbaijan has repeatedly demonstrated that its foreign policy was solely aimed at protecting its own security, ensuring national interests and contributing as much as possible to international economic and humanitarian cooperation.

Incidentally, Azerbaijan signed the alliance declaration with Russia just before the war in Ukraine, which raised many questions. However, it is clear that this event had nothing to do with tensions around Ukraine, as preparations for such documents take months. In this case the declaration between Baku and Moscow has been developed for more than a year.

"Russia's recognition of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics coincided with the visit to Moscow of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who is considered the main advocate of the principle of territorial integrity in the post-Soviet space. The key purpose of his visit was the signing of a declaration on allied cooperation with Russia, which is extremely important given the uncertainty over Nagorno-Karabakh," Russian newspaper Kommersant wrote.

Azerbaijan's position on the situation in and around Ukraine has once again confirmed its commitment to its principles and independent foreign policy course. It is no coincidence that Ukrainian President Zelensky named Baku among several cities in which Kiev was ready to negotiate with Moscow. He thanked the Azerbaijani president for the offer to hold talks and for the humanitarian aid provided to Ukraine. Zelensky also said that following his conversation with Ilham Aliyev, all SOCAR petrol stations in Ukraine have been instructed to provide free fuel for ambulances and the State Emergency Service.

Baku demonstrates the utmost clarity and predictability in its relations with all partners, without raising any inflated expectations or illusions. This also applies to the building of alliance with Russia, which has also been noticed by representatives of Azerbaijan's pro-Western opposition.

Real Party admitted that its ‘negative expectations’ it had before the signing of the declaration did not come true. "Correct implementation of the letter and spirit [of the document] will strengthen opportunities to continue relations between Azerbaijan and Russia in a stable course based on independence, state sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of borders of Azerbaijan, non-interference in its internal affairs, equality, mutual benefit between the two countries, peaceful settlement of disputes, non-use or threat of force, international law and its norms," the party statement said. It also noted that the Moscow Declaration "did not impose excessive or inappropriate obligations on Azerbaijan.”

What are the commitments of Baku under the declaration? The first thing that draws attention is the political and military component of future alliance. It is clear that as a member and current chair of the Non-Aligned Movement, Azerbaijan cannot a priori be a member of either NATO or the pro-Russian CSTO. Accordingly, there is no room for excessive commitments on part of Azerbaijan in the military and political spheres. In general, Moscow is satisfied with this state of affairs.

Why would Russia need to set allied relations with Azerbaijan then?

In fact, the occupation of 20% of Azerbaijani territory by Russia’s ally, Armenia, had definitely prevented Moscow from building a full-fledged military and political partnership with Baku. However, following Azerbaijan's liberation of its lands in the South Caucasus, there is a fundamentally different reality in the region and Moscow needed to bring its relations in line with it.

Baku is also adapting its foreign policy to the new regional configuration, with Azerbaijan, Turkey and Russia becoming the leading players in the South Caucasus. By signing the Declaration of Alliance with a NATO member, Turkey, on the one hand, and Russia on the other, official Baku has effectively become the only state in the CIS to receive guarantees for its independence, territorial integrity and security from the leading power centres.

It is also expected that Azerbaijan sign a bilateral agreement with the European Union in the coming months. This will be another manifestation of Azerbaijan's policy of multilateralism—building relations that do not prevent Baku from enjoying privileges in relations with all its partners.