SECOND WIND

In fact, the transit of power in Kazakhstan, which began several years ago, led to the birth of two political centres of decision-making. These were the institution of security agencies with special powers and the presidential power. The former was fully controlled by the first president of the country, although in recent years Nursultan Nazarbayev has consistently delegated his powers to President Kasym-Jomart Tokayev considered his official successor.  The result of this power duality was the crisis that shook Kazakhstan in January 2022, which almost turned into a civil war.

Fortunately, the final transit of power has taken place, albeit painfully. Now the Kazakh population is waiting for transformations supposed to substantially change the image of modern Kazakhstan. There is a roadmap for the new path of development, but it is likely to be full of surprises and very challenging.

Rebranding

After two months after the January events, an extraordinary congress of the ruling Nur Otan party was held to show that the promise of sweeping political reforms was not just political rhetoric. The Kazakh authorities began the transformation by rebranding the ruling party, which can also be described as a signal of reset of the country's entire political system.

The Nur Otan party has been renamed to Amanat. Rebranding not only implies changing of the name, but also reformatting the structure and functionality of Kazakhstan's leading political force. Overall, the extraordinary congress raised expectations that the ruling party was abandoning its former political monopoly in the country.

The ruling party has also outlined its future priorities. This appears to have been preceded by a great deal of work in relation to the study of the social order. In particular, it prioritised the principles of openness and public information through increased media outreach.

For Kazakh society, this is a signal that the government hears them and is trying to correct previous mistakes.

From super-presidential to presidential

When President Tokayev delivered his programme address to the nation at the joint session of the Houses of Parliament on March 16, it was no secret that it was, in fact, about the initiation of systemic reforms that would change the political image of the country. Judging by the scale and nature of the proposed reforms, it seems the government announced the concept of the ‘second republic’, which is rather a successor, but not the heir of the ‘first republic’ during the thirty years of independence.

The key message of the Kazakhstani president was that there should be a dialogue between the government and society, and that the government should be more effective using the improved model of Kazakhstani statehood, that is—“it is primarily a question of final transition from a super-presidential form of government to a presidential republic with a strong parliament”, as put by President Tokayev.

This implies an effective redistribution of power within the existing system of separation of powers in order to realise its full functionality. There will be a new system of checks and balances, and representatives of different groups of influence will be involved in governance, ensuring the kind of social consensus that President Tokayev referred to in his address to the nation.

Reforms of administrative-territorial division, strengthening the levers of governance and increasing the independence of municipal bodies strengthen the role and importance of regional elites in the Kazakh society. This is also supported by the decision to suspend the president's power of repealing or suspending the acts of akims (governors) of regions, cities of national significance and the capital city, as well as the abolition of his right to remove from office the akims of districts, cities or rural districts.

In order to attract different groups of influence to participate in the political life of the country, they are invited to become part of the process of forming new parties and political associations. This is made possible by the simplification of the registration procedure for political parties and the upgrade of the political process as such.

The overriding factor determining the strategic orientation of reforms is the intention to improve the efficiency of the nation-state building process. "The goal of our course of constructing New Kazakhstan is to change the paradigm of the country's development. We think over every step and firmly follow the planned way. In New Kazakhstan, we must invariably follow the principle of "different views, but a single nation," President Tokayev said. Key directions of this process are the fight against ignorance and archaicism, radicalism and dependency, the cult of consumption and corruption.

It is no coincidence that in his address at the congress, the Kazakh President also focused on the situation around the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine. His statements indicated that the Kazakh authorities wanted to take only one side—that being the international law. Simply put, as a professional diplomat, President Tokayev has made it clear that he intended to pursue a foreign policy course independent of one or other centres of world power.

Thus, Kazakhstan has got, figuratively speaking, a second wind ready to go through transformation. Certainly, any transformation is a risk, but a justified risk is always a noble one worth of taking.