WAR AND HOPES

The sixth and seventh weeks of hostilities in Ukraine, like all the previous weeks, have brought no hope for truce. Reports of mass civilian deaths in Kyiv’s suburb of Bucha, the withdrawal of Russian troops from the northern regions of Ukraine and their redeployment to the east, Russia's expulsion from the UN HRC and the adoption of the fifth sanctions package were new episodes in the ongoing war in Ukraine. However, efforts to seek peace in the region have not ceased either. Turkey has been the key facilitator of these efforts.

New round of tensions

Massacre of civilians in Bucha, which the Ukrainian side qualifies as a genocide, has increased tensions between the West and Russia.  There is a video showing the corpses of civilians lying in the streets of the city after the Russian military withdrew from it. Western allies condemned Russia for massacring civilians. Moscow called the footage fake and staged, hence demanding a UN investigation. Britain, as the incumbent president of the UN Security Council, convened a Security Council meeting on April 5 to discuss the issue. According to the results of the discussion, it was decided to conduct an objective investigation, on the basis of which the UN can give its final political assessment of the incident.

Meanwhile, ongoing tensions between Russia and the West deepening every day due to hostilities in Ukraine, contribute to continued sanctions against Moscow. On April 5, the US Treasury banned Russia from paying a total of $636m in public debt with money frozen in Western accounts as part of sanctions against Russia. Before Washington's ban, Moscow was able to pay from the blocked accounts. Now it will have to use to its own reserves, which the US and European authorities have been unable to limit. New restrictions have been imposed as part of the increased sanctions supposed to make Russia choose between depleting valuable dollar reserves or defaulting.

On the other hand, on April 8, the EU approved its fifth sanctions package, which includes exports and imports of jet fuel, steel products and luxury goods, and a ban on Russian ships entering the EU seaports. It also includes a ban on transactions with four key Russian banks, coal imports from Russia (€4bn annually) and exports in crucial areas, including advanced semiconductors, machinery and transport equipment (€10bn). In other words, the idea is to minimise EU trade and economic relations with Russia as much as possible.

At the same time, Brussels has yet to agree on a key issue—the embargo on Russian energy exports, which allows Moscow to actively use Gazprombank, which is not disconnected from SWIFT, for important foreign trade transactions. The bank is also used for purchases of military hardware and equipment.

Full-blown diplomatic war

In the first decade of April, Russian troops continued to leave the northern regions of Ukraine, in particular Chernihiv and Sumy. Meanwhile, there was speculation that the withdrawal of troops from these regions could be used by the Russian side to redeploy them in the east and south of Ukraine to start a new round of offensive.

BBC suggests that Russia has reorganised the command of operations in Ukraine. According to this version, the commander of the Southern Military District, General Aleksandr Dvornikov, who has extensive experience of combat operations in Syria, will now manage the military operation. The general might have been instructed to gain full control over Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as the entire southeast of Ukraine by May 9.

Yet amid discussions on the new phase of the military campaign, EU countries have begun to expel Russian diplomats, thereby minimising the level of diplomatic contacts with Moscow. These are hundreds of diplomats across the EU. The situation was most dramatically characterised by the German President Walter Steinmeier who, commenting on the expulsion of diplomats and the prospect of restoring relations between European states and Russia, mentioned the impossibility of normalising relations with Moscow under the current government. This can also be interpreted as a warning that the EU is unlikely to restore the situation even in the event of progress in the Ukraine-Russia talks.

In parallel, Washington has taken steps to narrow the field of Russian diplomacy within the UN. On April 7, the US submitted to the General Assembly the issue of expelling Russia from the UN Human Rights Council (HRC). The main excuse was shown as the events in Bucha. According to Washington and representatives of Western states who joined the initiative, Russia has no right to be represented in the UNHRC because it violates fundamental human rights in Ukraine. As a result of the vote, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution suspending Russia's membership in the council.

There is another political motivation behind this move. It is known that the main responsibility of UNHRC is to promote and protect human rights around the world, as well as to discuss a broad agenda related to political issues. Thus, Russia's withdrawal from the UNHRC will noticeably limit Moscow's participation in the discussion of global topics related to ensuring human rights and various aspects of these issues.

In response to the UNGA resolution, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a decision to suspend country's membership in UNHRC as of April 7.

Negotiations are necessary anyways

On April 4, Vladimir Zelensky signed a decree creating a delegation to negotiate with Russia on security guarantees, indicating Kiev's willingness to continue the line of negotiation with the Russian side.

At the same time, in his interview with local journalists, President Zelensky said that he did not trust Russian security guarantees even if a peace agreement was signed with Moscow.

Speaking about personal bilateral contacts, Zelensky noted that his meeting with Vladimir Putin "might not happen". However, he believes that Ukraine should continue negotiations even after the events in Bucha. Previously, Zelensky has repeatedly mentioned his readiness for direct talks with Putin. He added that he did not intend to talk about demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine at the talks with Moscow.

Kiev makes it clear that it has no intention of disarming under any circumstances and views the issue of denazification as an attempt to interfere in the internal affairs of Ukraine.

The response from the Kremlin was prompt. According to President Putin’s spokesman Dmitriy Peskov, Russia does not reject a possibility of meeting between Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky, but this can only happen after the document is agreed. He later added that Moscow wants to end the military operation in Ukraine through negotiations and is interested in the Ukrainian president agreeing to Moscow's proposals.

Despite the complexity of the task, the Ukrainian side submitted a new draft agreement with Russia on April 6. However, judging by the reaction of the Russian foreign minister, Kiev's proposals contradicted the Ukrainian side's commitments made earlier in Istanbul.

Russia considers it unacceptable to discuss Crimea and Donbass at the meeting of the two leaders. Furthermore, the new Ukrainian version of the agreement does not state that Ukraine's security guarantees do not apply to Crimea and Sevastopol. Moscow does not rule out that Kiev will demand the withdrawal of Russian troops at the next stage of the negotiations.

Meanwhile, even though it disagreed with the Ukrainian proposals, Moscow said it would continue negotiations pushing forward with its own draft agreement.

Importantly, two days later, the Ukrainian president also supported the idea of continuing negotiations, saying it is the only way to stop the fighting.

Turkey supports talks with results

The shift in the active phase of hostilities to Donetsk and Luhansk regions and the missile attack on the Kramatorsk railway station, killing at least 52 people and injuring around 100 others, once again confirm the relevance of negotiations.

In this context, a series of demonstrative visits to Kiev of the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, EU High Commissioner for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell and other European leaders, as well as the dispatch of S-300 divisions to Ukraine by Slovakia to help the Ukrainian army could be of little consolation to Kiev.

Even a surprise visit by the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson with specific proposals and support for Ukraine is unlikely to significantly change the wartime realities. According to Zelensky, only an agreement between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine can end hostilities. Under these circumstances, Ankara has again suggested both sides holding negotiations in Turkey. The idea was voiced by the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, who suggested two possible scenarios for the meeting. The first one is supposed to be a meeting of foreign ministers, followed by a meeting of the heads of state. In the second scenario, it is offered to hold a joint meeting between the foreign ministers and presidents of both countries.

"In both cases, we want possible talks to take place in Turkey. Both countries are looking forward to meeting in Turkey," Cavusoglu said and expressed hope that the countries would not forget Ankara's efforts after the end of hostilities.

While analysts speculate whether the Turkish proposals are more about Ankara's ambition to play a historic role in ending the conflict or a pragmatic desire to avoid a major war between NATO and Russia, millions of ordinary citizens suffering from hostilities are waiting and hoping for a quick solution to the conflict.

It is not only about refugees and displaced persons escaping missile attacks, but also about the hundreds of millions of people around the world who find themselves in a difficult economic situation and in some cases are simply on the brink of survival.