BLURRY OUTCOME

We are entering the fourth month of the war in Ukraine. Over the past weeks, military confrontation in Ukraine has focused mainly on the eastern and southern parts of the country. However, there have been no clear breakthroughs, and this gives rise to speculations about the beginning of the protracted phase of the conflict. Political dynamics, however, has been more intensive. But it looked like the leading political actors were competing with each other to prove the credibility of their arguments instead of focusing on finding the best way to stop the bloodshed. As a result, even the UN Secretary General had to admit that it would be naïve to expect the conflict to end soon.

Weapons never enough

Perhaps the most important and dramatic event of recent days was the fall of Mariupol. This is how the Russian military dubbed the capture of the city's last bastion of defence, the territory of the Azovstal plant. The Ukrainian military stationed at the Azovstal iron and steel works started to leave the plant on May 16. And on May 20, the Russian Defence Ministry announced that all Ukrainian military had left the territory of the plant. It was the last defence line of Mariupol, which has been under Russian control since April.

Meanwhile, no clear territorial losses or breakthroughs have been observed in other parts of the front. Experts believe this was due to large-scale deliveries of Western military equipment to Ukraine to deter the Russian army's offensive.

On May 23, the second meeting of the Contact Group on Ukrainian Defence took place with more than 40 partner countries. The meeting was called Rammstein-2 after the name of its venue, the US airbase Rammstein in Germany. The first meeting initiated and managed by the US was held a month ago to organise the joint action by NATO member states to support Ukraine. After praising the Ukrainian side for deterring Russian offensives, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin offered to provide Kiev with more effective political, military, and technical support, announcing a new phase of assistance to Ukraine. At the second meeting, 20 countries announced new security assistance packages for Kiev.

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to insist on the supplies of more advanced long-range offensive weapons, including multiple-launch missile systems, which will enable the Ukrainian army to ensure a turning point in the conflict, as well as anti-missile defence systems Patriot. However, due to fears that these weapons may be used to hit targets on the Russian territory, Washington is slowing down deliveries to Ukraine. They make only promises with no concrete terms and conditions of deliveries. The US remains anxious to avoid the possibility of the Third World War due to the further development of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation.

What about China?

Washington is at the forefront of military assistance to Ukraine, also mobilising the efforts of other countries in this direction. This is how Washington continues to strengthen its military and political leadership in the West. This factor can be used as a serious argument in the political and military rivalry with China. Russia and China, according to the National Security Strategy of the current administration, are the main geopolitical threats to the US. In parallel with supporting Ukraine against Russia, the US is also trying to weaken it and prevent China from influencing the situation on Russia’s side.

It is well known that before the war China has actively used the Russian territory to implement its One Belt, One Road strategy to carry cargo to Europe. According to the state-run Russian Railways Co., China-Europe-China route made up the lion’s share of traffic increase by the company in 2021.

However, China stopped the cargo traffic through Russia in March 2022. This eventually had a negative impact on its trade relations with Europe, weakening Chinese position in the EU. Now this undoubtedly affects both the country's economic performance and its declining influence in Europe.

However, some circles of political elites in the leading EU states believe that the weakening of Russia and China and the strengthening of the US is not desirable and can harm their long-term interests. For decades, many political circles in Europe have been building up their interests by engaging with both Russia and China, trying to balance the influence of the US and to strengthen own positions. Today, many of them condemn Russian actions, but at the same time feel pity for the unjustified reliance on Moscow as a natural counterbalance to Washington.

Europe in search of its army

Under these circumstances, the idea of a European army becomes increasingly popular among European politicians. It is believed to be not only an indicator of EU’s military strength, but also a natural counterbalance to the growing military and political influence of the US.

On May 22, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell focused on the issue in his weekly blog. He said that the war in Ukraine should be a signal for the EU to join forces in the defense sector: "We need a modern and interoperable European Armed Forces.” Many EU member states have announced their intention to increase defence spending. “However, it is crucial that they do not only spend more, but also better together to prevent further fragmentation. If every member state increases its defence spending, multiplying by “x” its current expenditure by investing on its own without European coordination, the result is likely to be a waste of money," Borrell said.

Borrell is supported not only by EU leaders, but also by France and Germany. Poland, Romania, Greece and a number of Eastern European countries, which see no alternative to NATO and also recognise the leading role of the US in ensuring their military security, are more sceptical about the idea. Brussels needs its own security system based on its own army to conduct a more independent foreign policy and to be less dependent on the Rammstein meetings.

Weird Davos

Meanwhile, on May 23, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, US foreign policy expert Henry Kissinger urged the West to stop trying to inflict a crushing defeat on Russian army in Ukraine, warning that this would have disastrous consequences for long-term stability in Europe. Kissinger's statements followed an op-ed published in the New York Times on May 19, claiming that Ukraine would have to make "painful territorial concessions" to achieve peace.

Kissinger is known as a strategist who played an exceptional role in restoring US relations with China and developing US dialogue with the USSR. In his view, the strategic rivals of the US are important elements of the modern international security system guaranteeing it against possible chaos. It is no coincidence that he believes that Russia has been a key part of Europe for four centuries and has served as the guarantor of the European balance of power at crucial moments. European leaders should not lose sight of the prospects for a long-term relationship and should not push Russia into a permanent alliance with China.

Most surprisingly, Kissinger said that Ukraine should cede the territories of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia to help end the invasion. Kissinger also insisted that the West persuade Ukraine to agree to negotiations with Russia to restore the status quo before hostilities began on February 24.

Kissinger's comments came after a group of world leaders made statements to put more pressure on Russia and more support for Ukraine. President of European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, for example, said the war was not just "a matter of Ukrainian survival" or "a matter of European security", but "a challenge for the entire world community". She blamed the Russian President Vladimir Putin for his "destructive rage", but said Russia could one day regain its place in Europe if it "finds a way towards democracy, the rule of law and respect for a rules-based international order... because Russia is our neighbour".

The EU makes it clear that it is not closing its doors to Russia forever and, under certain conditions, is ready to resume dialogue with Moscow. There are EU countries that even in the current circumstances leave room for contacts with the Russian leadership. This demonstrates that the political tradition of engagement with Russia, despite the dramatically changed conditions, cannot be simply abolished.

Warning from Zelensky

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that the West remains divided over the degree of support for Ukraine defending itself against Russian invasion. "Unity is a weapon. My question is whether there is unity in practice. I don't see it. Our huge advantage over Russia will be when we are really united," Zelensky said during a discussion on the situation in Ukraine at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

The theme of Ukraine in Davos was discussed in parallel with the theme of global food crisis. Amid discussions about the possibility of exporting 22m tonnes of Ukrainian grain blocked in the country due to the closure of seaports, President Zelensky, who spoke in absentia at the forum, proposed the creation of an organisation of food-exporting countries. Earlier, Ukrainian Agriculture Policy Minister Nikolai Solsky called at the G7 ministerial meeting for the establishment of an influential Organization of Grain Exporting Countries that would respond to global challenges in the market.

However, this is not a matter of today. Another issue is more relevant currently: exporting Ukrainian export grain to meet the needs of the countries that need it most. In response to the UN secretary-general's appeal, the Russian side expressed its readiness to start a dialogue on the issue. However, it is unknown with whom and how this dialogue will be conducted.

Meanwhile, the EU explores the possibility of exporting the grain through bypass routes. In particular, there was a suggestion to use a route via Poland and Lithuania. On May 24, the first test train with Ukrainian grain arrived in Lithuania and bypassed Belarus via Poland. Other trains are expected to follow in this direction in the next few days.

In addition, Turkey is holding talks with Kiev and Moscow to create an export corridor for Ukrainian grain.

There is hope that progress can be made on this issue, giving the poorest countries a chance to at least partially solve their significant food problems. This expectation, however, may not come true as the war continues and uncertainty remains. Uncertainty is the most troubling thing about the current situation, because everything, even the most improbable and dangerous scenarios, cannot be ruled out in such a situation.