WATER OF DISCORD

Drinking water increasingly becomes a cause of tension between Iran and Turkey. There have been disputes over access to the region's fresh water resources even before. In the past sixty years, tensions between the countries of the Middle East and North Africa have nearly resulted in a military confrontation. Pessimistic scenarios forecast that the annual per capita water reserves of the Middle East will roughly halve in the near future. Moreover, 11 of 17 countries currently experiencing problems with drinking water are located in the Middle East.

Compared to other countries of the region, Turkey is in a better position in terms of access to water resources. Many major rivers, including the Tigris, Euphrates, Kura and Araz, originate in Turkey. However, the annual decline in water resources, as well as the increasing demand for water, is causing the countries of the region to experience increasing water shortages.

Iran's concerns

Undoubtedly, the situation has caused concern and dissatisfaction in the neighbouring countries. Thus, in mid-May the Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdollahian raised the issue of the misunderstanding with Turkey over the water crisis to parliamentary debates, which is indicative of the seriousness of the problem. The Iranian media report that new dams built by Turkey on the Tigris and Araz rivers had reduced the inflow of drinking water to Iran.

Abdollahian has clearly expressed the opposition of his government to Turkey’s building of new dams. "Construction of the dam by friendly and neighboring Turkey is unacceptable, as it will upset the environmental balance in the region, cause serious problems for our people and the whole region, and significantly reduce the volume of fresh water supplies to our country,” Mehr news agency quoted Mr. Abdollahian. According to Tehran, the Turkish Ilisu dam on the Tigris River will reduce the volume of water flowing to Iraq by 56%, which will have negative consequences for the agriculture and environment in Iran and Iraq.

According to the minister, in the last eight months the issue has been discussed with the Turkish Foreign Ministry at least three times. He also announced plans to set up a joint water commission, while a delegation of Turkish experts is due to visit Iran soon.

The territory of present-day Iraq has long been known as home of irrigated agriculture, thanks mainly to the waters of the Tigris and Euphrates originating in Turkey. However, the expected drought and shrinking of water resources, as well as the increasing demand for them have exacerbated Iraq's water problem. Currently, Iraq covers most of its fresh water needs thanks to the Tigris and Euphrates.

Also, the northern province of Sulaymaniyah and the southern province of Basra receive fresh water from rivers originating in Iran. Diyala province with heavy farming industry receives most of the fresh water from Iran. In 2018, problems with fresh water in Basra led to major anti-Iranian protests and the burning of the Iranian consulate. The Diyala, Karki, Karoun and Vind rivers originating in Iran's Zagros Mountains flow into the Tigris in Iraq. In total, Iran's rivers supply 70 billion cubic metres (bcm) of water annually to Iraq, which is enough to cover only 35% of the country's demand. That is why the decline of the water level in the Tigris has caused discontent in Iraq, Iran and Turkey. The Iraqi government has even threatened to sue Iran.

In other words, the water shortage in Iraq is also causing a serious problem in Iran.

To make better use of the water resources of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, Iraq has built a large number of dams on these rivers. The largest of these is the Mosul Dam on the Tigris (1986), which hosts one of Iraq's largest water reservoirs. The country's second largest water reservoir is the Hadisa Dam built in the same year on the Euphrates.

However, as rivers dry up, it is becoming increasingly difficult to meet the country's water needs. The neighbouring Iran is in no better position either.

Iran is not only one of the biggest powers in the region, but also a major agricultural country. The country's farming land resources mainly use fresh water for irrigation. Only a small portion of Iranian territory on the Caspian Sea coast is irrigated with rainwater.

The steadily rising demand for water and the drought of the past four years have further worsened the situation with the drinking water in Iran. Protests that sparked this year due to the water deficit led to serious clashes in the predominantly Arab-populated city of Ahwaz.

Iran is a mountainous country with many rivers. There are 192 man-made reservoirs in Iran to ensure the effective use of the water of mountainous rivers for farming. However, the increase in water demand and especially the 20% drop in precipitation over the last twenty years have caused a serious problem in the country. The drying Lake Urmia has also created a serious water crisis in large parts of Iran.

No water, but dust

According to Iranian media, the drought caused by dams is contributing to dust clouds. Dust clouds are known to have appeared in Turkey, Iraq and Iran in recent months, causing significant damage to these and other countries of the region.

Back in 2017, at the International Sand and Dust Storms Conference, the then Iranian President Hassan Rouhani indirectly blamed Turkey for the problem. He said the construction of 22 new reservoirs in the "neighbouring country" (i. e. Turkey) had a negative impact on the Tigris and Euphrates, hence leading to increased drought in Iraq and Syria.

Turkey considers these accusations unsubstantiated. In a written statement, the Turkish Foreign Ministry argued that they had no scientific basis and were predominantly made by politicians. The statement also indicated the region of origin for sandstorms being Africa and the Middle East. Plus, the increasing drought in recent years is indicated as one of the main causes of the crisis.

Individual share of water

Agreements between Turkey, Iraq and Syria on the use of fresh water resources date back to the mid-20th century. According to Article 109 annexed to the Lausanne Peace Treaty, a fundamental condition for the signing of future water use agreements was the obligation taken by all three states (Turkey, Iraq and Syria) to consider each other's mutual interests. Despite the absence of similar agreements under the Lausanne Treaty, Protocol No. 1 to the 1946 Treaty of Turkish-Iraqi Friendship was the first of its kind between the above countries. In the document, the parties reaffirmed their commitment to construct dams, including on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers and their tributaries, for the benefit of the parties to the treaty. In addition, Turkey pledged to inform about its plans to build new dams.

Political disputes between Turkey, Iraq and Syria caused by Turkey's construction of the Keban, Karakaya and Ataturk reservoirs on the Euphrates River in the following years have been settled after the parties found common points of understanding. According to the 1987 agreement signed between Turkey and Syria, the former agreed to release 500 cubic meters of water per second into the Euphrates. Ankara claims to comply with this agreement until now, in the same way as its obligation to release 350 cubic metres of water per second into Iraq.

When the parties agreed to share the water resources of the Euphrates, the total volume of water was 52.92bcm. Of these the shares of Turkey, Syria and Iraq were 18.42bcm (35%), 11.50bcm (22%) and 23bcm (43%), respectively. Today, according to the Turkish side, the annual water potential of the river has decreased and reaches 35.58bcm. The reduced 17.3bcm of water is hence the cause of the disagreement between the countries.

A similar situation is true for the Tigris. Turkey, Iraq and Syria reportedly claim 6.87bcm (13%), 45bcm (83%) and 2.60bcm (4%) of the Tigris annually. With a total demand of 54.47bcm, the current water potential of the river is only 48.67bcm. There is a deficit of 5.80bcm, which also causes a misunderstanding between the countries.

This is a very serious challenge, and worst of all, there is a risk of a worsening of the problem. There are also natural causes contributing to this: the ongoing drought, effects of global warming and the surge in water demand in the countries of the region. In the current situation, they need to agree on an equitable distribution of water based on real needs. But this does not mean solving the problem as a whole, for existing water supplies are insufficient and are steadily declining. Thus, there is an urgent need to discover and utilise new water resources. Otherwise, the Middle East risks to go down in history as a region where water is more expensive than oil.