NO PERSPECTIVES

The war in Ukraine, with none of the parties willing to compromise, has made the headlines of all the international media outlets in the last four months. Unfortunately, there is still no viable chance for visible change in the situation. And this is perhaps the worst of all the news coming this country.

New Mariupol?

Meanwhile, in recent weeks fighting has concentrated around the towns of Severodonetsk and Lisichansk. Other regions of Ukraine, including Kharkov, Kherson and Zaporozhye, have also suffered from heavy shelling.

Military actions near Severodonetsk follow the Mariupol scenario. The Ukrainian troops defending the city withdrew to the territory of Azot, the largest chemical plant in the region. It is very similar to Azovstal in Mariupol, where the Ukrainian troops and thousands of the city residents had been hiding for several months. Azot, which is also comparable in size to a town, has not only dozens of workshops and industrial buildings, but also specialised bomb shelters hosting civilians. Like Mariupol, Severodonetsk, with hundreds of Ukrainian troops, may also be surrounded by Russian troops and find themselves in a so-called cauldron.

At the same time, there is no intense fighting in other parts of the front. Military and political experts agree that the war becomes increasingly protracted. The Russian army is only advancing in the Donbass direction.

No lethal weapons, but you stay calm

On June 8, the European Parliament backed a resolution calling for a candidate status for Ukraine as the next step of admission to the EU. The EU Parliament also recommended "to provide without delay weapons to Ukraine in line with the needs expressed by the Ukrainian authorities, in particular using the European Peacekeeping Instrument and the coordination centre, as well as under bilateral agreements between the EU and Ukraine".

Also in June, the European Commission (EC) plans to express its opinion on Ukraine's application for EU membership. This will be a basis for the decision on granting Ukraine a candidate status for EU membership.

Obviously, as the war continues and its consequences increase not only for Ukraine but also for the EU, there is a growing need to demonstrate decisive steps towards Ukraine's integration into the EU. But although the leading EU states believe that Kiev should not be granted an adapted ‘easy membership plan’, the leadership of the Union is trying not to push Kiev away or provoke it into harsh rhetoric against Brussels’s actions.

On June 9, President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced initiatives to finance Ukraine's reconstruction. "We will start to rebuild Ukraine. It is not only in Europe's interest, it is also our moral duty to make a significant contribution to the reconstruction. All financial institutions should contribute to this. I discussed this with Zelensky. There will be funding initiatives, a Marshall Plan for Ukraine," she said.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is taking advantage of the situation by pushing its political demands more aggressively. Kiev is waiting not only for concrete steps towards Ukraine's integration into the European Union, but also for major military supplies.

On the same day, June 9, Alexei Arestovich, adviser to the President of Ukraine, accused the Western countries of slowness in supplying Kiev with the promised weapons.

Arestovich complained of nothing happening after the ‘great meetings’ at the US base of Rammstein in Germany. "There were more than 40 participants at past meetings. And now I want to ask: where is the result, gentlemen? Where is the systematic transfer of weapons to Ukraine on industrial scale? Where are the results of statements about supporting Ukraine and defeating Russia on the battlefield?" Arestovich said.

Therefore, statements from Brussels about funding for Ukraine are getting more annoying than reassuring to Kiev, which has been signalling that it needed weapons because the country may soon find itself in a position where there is nothing left to rebuild.

However, some experts believe that the Ukrainian military receives so many Western weapons that they do not even have time to master.

The West has recently reported deliveries of more modern and heavier weapons to Ukraine, which will require serious training. These include HIMARS and M270 multiple rocket launchers.

According to experts, many Ukrainian troopers learn how to use the weapons supplied to them on their own, including by watching online video tutorials. However, it is impossible not to learn everything individually and intuitively. Especially anti-aircraft missiles, artillery and equipment. These need serious military training. If Ukrainian take any such courses, they are clearly insufficient.

A friend in need is a friend indeed

Meanwhile, the day after Arestovich’s angry statement, UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace travelled to Kiev.

He was instructed to do so by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who had narrowly escaped a vote of no confidence from Conservative MPs in the British parliament the day before. This can largely be explained by the Conservatives’ reluctance to replace the prime minister amid the complex geopolitical challenges for the UK, as he who was pursuing a tough and Conservative-friendly political course. In other words, Ukraine saved Johnson.

It is not therefore surprising that during his meeting with Wallace, President Zelensky described Britain as a true friend of Ukraine, especially after the outbreak of war. "Indeed, the war showed who our real, strategic and effective friends and partners today were. One such friend is the UK," Zelensky said.

By the way, among such friends and partners of Ukraine are also the nine Eastern European member states of NATO, which gathered in Bucharest on June 10. During the summit, they supported NATO’s new strategic concept to be adopted at the relevant summit in Madrid slated for the end of June. In the concept, Russia is explicitly referred as an existential threat.

The same nine NATO member states welcome the planned membership of Sweden and Finland in NATO and wish to see NATO reinforce the battle groups on the alliance's eastern flank. This approach is welcomed both by London and Washington, which favour the consolidation of NATO institutions and are sceptical about the prospect of the European army, as advocated by Paris and Berlin.

Some thoughts about… bread

On June 8, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Turkey. Among the key issues of his discussions was an attempt to find a solution to the delivery of Ukrainian grain to global markets.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has reacted harshly to Turkey's discussions with Russia on grain exports. Earlier, several days before the meeting, the Ukrainian ambassador to Turkey, Vasily Bodnar, said that Russia "steals Ukrainian grain, takes it to Sevastopol by road and to Russian seaports by ships. Then the grain is exported under forged documents as Russian grain".

According to ambassador, if these ships entered Turkish ports under documents from Sevastopol or Kherson, they would not have been accepted, but since they allegedly come from Krasnodar or Novorossiysk, there is no violation of international laws for the Turkish authorities. The facts, according to the ambassador, have been made available to the Turkish side for examination.

This move by the Ukrainian side can deter the process of reaching final agreements between Turkey and Russia on the issue. At least, it seems that Ukraine is trying to hamper the conclusion of possible agreements between these countries.

The war in Ukraine is increasingly affecting the world's poorest countries, which also have serious food security problems. Thus, the Senegalese President and Chairman of the African Union (AU), Macky Sall, travelled to Moscow on June 3 for the talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

One of the key, if not the most important topic of the visit was the impact of the war on global supply chains. Obviously, the conflict in Ukraine is driving up global food and fuel prices. The poorest African countries suffer the most. They continue to face the negative effects of the climate change, military conflicts and the pandemic, struggling to recover from them now. But the war in Ukraine is creating additional difficulties for African states in coping with their growing social and economic problems. For the Senegalese president, whose country is facing an unprecedented drought this year, it was important to get a clear answer to the question of when they can expect grain exports from Russia and Ukraine to resume and whether it was worth expecting at all?

Ankara, which is mediating the problem, hopes that its efforts will be successful. After all, the prospect of great hunger in Africa raises the possibility of mass migration, and Turkey could be one of the countries on the African migrant routes.

However, in this critical situation the important thing is the result. Who and how will achieve it is a lesser priority. After all, there is an ongoing war with no visible perspectives of the end.