VOYAGE OF PEACE

US President Joseph Biden plans to visit a number of Middle Eastern states on July 13-16, 2022. This will be his first visit to the region, and the agenda of the tour is already known.

Biden will first visit Israel and meet Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. His second stop will be in Ramallah to meet the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. His final destination will be Saudi Arabia. In Jeddah, Biden will attend the regular conference of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) including the leaders of the six member states, as well as the leaders of Egypt, Jordan and Iraq (GCC+3).

Washington has already confirmed the visit, and President Biden himself answered a few questions of journalists about the trip in Delaware. He said the main goal was to bring peace to the region. "It is my duty to bring peace to the region to the best of my ability. I will try to do that."

The US president's tour to the Middle East comes at a time of heightened tension both in the region and globally. The worsening of relations between Israel and Iran in recent weeks has increased the risk of a military confrontation between these countries. The same cannot be said for the planned trip to Saudi Arabia, which is of particular interest to observers for a number of reasons.

It is not surprising that Biden's first stop will be Israel, where he intends to reiterate Washington's support for its longstanding strategic ally in the region. But that is part of the official protocol of the visit. But what raises the significance of the visit more is a number of other factors, such as the cooling of US-Israeli relations, Israel's rapprochement with China as well as the factor of Iran.

Important factors

In fact, all these factors are related to each other. Iran has managed to cast a shadow over the reputation of the US-Israeli relations under the Democrats, especially under the last two American presidents. It is well known that the Democrats prefer a policy of negotiations and diplomacy to resolve the nuclear issue with Iran. Under the previous Obama administration, when Biden served as vice president, the Iranian nuclear deal provoked a strong reaction from Israel. The ‘response’ of the then Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was his address to the members of the US Congress after he failed to meet with the American president.

Even now, the US Democrats follow the same path on the Iranian issue, and prefer negotiations. So far they have not been successful though. Yet the negotiations are under way and Washington is in no hurry to rule out the possibility of a new nuclear deal with Iran. Israel, on the other hand, has a tougher stance on Iran. The Jewish state believes that Iran will sooner or later have its own nuclear weapons. It is therefore proposes tough measures against Tehran, including from its isolation in the Middle East to the destruction of Iranian nuclear and military facilities.

Rising Iranian-Israeli tensions in recent weeks, with both sides accusing each other of murder and terrorism, raise concerns about the high risk of a military confrontation. It is said that Israeli officials believe Iran is in the final stages of uranium enrichment and are therefore proposing military intervention as a countermeasure.

In this context, Biden's planned trip is seen as an attempt to calm down the Israeli leadership, to renew US assurances of security guarantees and, most importantly, to eliminate the risk of war. In other words, as the US president put it, he will try to bring as much peace as possible to the region.

Another itchy point of the US-Israeli relations has been Israel's rapprochement with China. Washington met Beijing's offer to invest in some infrastructure projects in Israel with strong opposition. Therefore, the US leadership will also try to resolve these differences during the visit.

Although Biden's Israeli trip overshadows his subsequent meeting with the leader of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas, it is notable in terms of normalising the US-Palestinian relations, which have deteriorated under Trump. Biden plans to express support for a peaceful solution to the Palestinian conflict. This is also an important step in view of Israel's security, as Abbas still remains a major obstacle against radical Palestinian factions.

Arabian priorities of the East

Perhaps the most notable part of Biden's Middle East tour will be his visit to Saudi Arabia. After Palestine, he will travel to Jeddah to meet with the Saudi officials and, together with delegations from Egypt, Jordan and Iraq, which are not members of the GCC, to take part in a joint summit of the organisation.

The most expected part of the visit will be the outcome of the US delegation's meetings with the Saudi officials. There are three main topics on the president's agenda: oil prices and Saudi Arabia's increase in oil exports to the world market, the war in Yemen and, finally, the growing influence of Russia and China in the region. The latter concerns not only Saudi Arabia, but the entire Arab world. Thus, Washington followed with concern the recent visit of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to the Arab countries of the Middle East. No doubt the most discussed part of Biden's visit to the kingdom will be his meeting with the de facto ruler of the country, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Biden had previously made some harsh statements about bin Salman. And when the US president's visit to Saudi Arabia was confirmed, journalists were primarily interested in his meeting with the crown prince.

According to the White House spokeswoman Carine Jean-Pierre, the president's position on the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi remains unchanged. At the same time, she added that during the discussions, the two leaders will focus on diplomacy and peace in the Middle East. Counter-terrorism, the war in Yemen and climate change will also be among the issues of discussions. Remarkably, the decision to meet with Salman came after the announcement of his chairing the GCC+ summit.

A closer look at the US-Saudi relations shows that they have not always been smooth. In recent history, it all started in the last years of Barack Obama's presidency. Especially after the Saudi’s attack on Yemen and the 2016 New York court decision condemning the kingdom for the events of September 11, 2001, which demanded compensation to the families of the victims.

The warming of relations did not occur until the years of Donald Trump's presidency. In May 2017, Washington and Riyadh signed a $10 billion arms deal, but the mysterious disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the kingdom's consulate general in Istanbul in October 2018 and his subsequent murder seriously hit the US-Saudi relations. The Democrats, in opposition at the time, sharply criticised the ruling royal family and tried to put pressure on the US government to take tough action. Despite Trump's best efforts to maintain ties between the two countries relations with the Saudis have cooled again.

They got worse after the election of Joseph Biden as the new US preisdent. The suspension of American support for the kingdom's war against Yemen has been a serious test for Riyadh.

The situation now seems to have changed. Now the US needs Saudi Arabia. With the start of Russia's military operation against Ukraine, energy prices in the West have risen sharply, with the price of petrol in the US reaching all-time high. In this situation, the US desperately needs the oil-producing Arab countries of the Middle East and above all Saudi Arabia. That is why President Biden accepted King Salman's invitation and even agreed to meet Mohammed bin Salman.

Still a chance

Biden will probably ask the Arab oil tycoons to supply more oil to the market. On the one hand, this is necessary to stop the market fluctuations that Russia is trying to manipulate. On the other hand, with the US attention focused on the situation in Europe and tensions with Beijing, the Arab governments of the Middle East are secretly getting closer to China and Russia. After all, they have not received Washington’s support they expected on the issue of Iran. Another goal of the planned visit will therefore be to restore the US's former ties with its Middle Eastern partners amid the recent developments that once again highlight the importance of oil and gas as serious geopolitical factors.

We can assume that Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia will be productive. In fact, the talks between Washington and Riyadh have been ongoing for quite some time. In May, a representative of the US National Security Council Brett McGurk and a group of officials from the US Department of State visited the kingdom. During the visit, they discussed energy security, global oil prices and stable energy prices. The US Envoy for Yemen regularly visits Riyadh to discuss the ways to resolve the conflict. All these factors show that, despite the cool relations between the two countries, there is still a chance to warm them up.

Riyadh seems satisfied with the frequent visits of American envoys from Washington. The resumption of relations between the two capitals and the meeting between the crown prince and the US leadership is a successful milestone in the rapprochement between the two countries. Washington's attention to the Middle East is an important security factor for the kingdom. It is also very important in terms of stability and security in the Persian Gulf, which is a major oil transportation corridor, with a high risk of war with Iran. Therefore, the outcome of the US president's visit to Saudi Arabia is expected to satisfy both sides.