AZERBAIJAN WARNS

The level of diplomatic activities aimed at settling the post-conflict situation in Garabagh remains high, especially from the Russian side. At the end of June, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov paid a two-day official visit to Baku. The visit was notable in many respects...

Moscow seizes the initiative

Apparently, Moscow has not been happy with the recent developments initiated by Brussels in the post-conflict settlement process. Mr. Lavrov’s visit first to Yerevan and then to Baku seems to be a Russian attempt to seize the initiative and regain, if not monopolise, a leading position in the mediation process.

However, the visit demonstrated that there was little difference between the mediation initiatives of Russia and the EU. This means that there is no danger of either side ‘backing its own’ mediator. During his meeting with the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Mr. Lavrov assured that Moscow was "ready to provide any assistance to implement the three documents signed by the three leaders on November 9, 2020, January 11 and November 26, 2021. The trilateral working group on unblocking communications is, in our view, making some progress".

Another important point of discussions was the issue of border delimitation and demarcation. According to Mr. Lavrov, Russia is also "ready to advise the two commissions set up to delimit and demarcate the borders in Azerbaijan and Armenia, in accordance with other agreements. There are specific proposals on this matter”. Later he confidently announced a meeting of the delimitation and demarcation working group in Moscow: "The meeting was agreed to be held in Moscow, on our territory. We are now working on the dates that will be convenient to both sides. I have not seen any signal that the parties have changed their minds or do not want to participate in this work”.

Mr. Lavrov also expressed Russia's interest in participating in the reconstruction works in Garabagh. Finally, the Russian foreign minister stated that "the Minsk Group no longer exists" and even used the term "post-conflict settlement", agreeing with Azerbaijan's position that the conflict remained in the past. In short, both Russia and the EU are now openly pushing Yerevan to work in line with the Azerbaijani agenda on border delimitation and demarcation, unblocking of communications and a peace treaty.

Diplomatic panic

Not surprisingly, Mr. Lavrov's visit to Baku caused a near panic in Armenia. Certainly, they were well aware that, as one of the Russian political talk show participants put it, Moscow was not going to look at the world "through Armenian eyes". Still, Armenia did not expect such a miserable failure ‘on all fronts’. To their great disappointment, the Russian foreign minister did not voice any Armenian demands and claims in Baku either. Moreover, he used the term "post-conflict settlement". Also, he did not use the term ‘Nagorny Karabakh’ and praised Azerbaijani initiatives in the post-conflict settlement. Obviously, Yerevan was outraged and accused Lavrov of all mortal sins. Initially, the accusations came from the unofficial expert level. Then the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called Lavrov's statements ‘strange’ and recalled his statements about the Minsk Group during his meeting with the Russian president.

Although they do not like to remember or talk about it much, but the works on the delimitation and demarcation of borders under Russian moderation has been underway since the first weeks after the 44-day war. The outcome of this work was quite productive for Azerbaijan and truly disastrous for Armenia. Thus, Yerevan had to return considerable parts of the territory illegally annexed to Armenia during the Soviet years and during the occupation of Garabagh and East Zangezur after the collapse of the USSR. It was Armenia that has made every effort to stop the Russian moderation. Nikol Pashinyan periodically suggested "mirror withdrawal of troops", or advocated presence of "international peacekeepers", or something else. And now that Russia is once again assuming the role of moderator, Pashinyan feels bad about it. So the panic gripping Armenia's political elite is understandable.

Yerevan understands that the delimitation and demarcation of borders, let alone the signing of a peace treaty, will put an end to the history of Garabagh claims once and for all.

The revanchist rally in Yerevan is on the wane. Their camp already admits that they simply could not get enough supporters. So the attempt to attack Pashinyan with his own weapons has failed. But what is greater in this failure—aversion to the idea of revenge or dislike of the Garabagh Clan? Armenia has not abandoned its claims to Turkish Eastern Anatolia for more than a century. As a result, Yerevan has devised tactics which they believe is quite cunning and subtle: disrupting real meetings, demanding the return of the Minsk Group to the dialogue, putting forward deliberately unacceptable conditions and so on. In other words, there are attempts to procrastinate the negotiation process, not to sign crucial agreements, to pretend to be ready for dialogue and even to lower the official rhetoric. In any case, the President of Armenia Vahagn Khachatrian refuses to declare on camera that ‘Artsakh’ will not be part of Azerbaijan. But unfortunately, there is no readiness for a real settlement behind this change of rhetoric.

Russian initiative and Azerbaijani warning

There is now a serious chance that the protracted pause in the post-conflict settlement will be interrupted. Apparently, amid the understandable difficulties in relations with Brussels, Moscow could promote for its own benefit the settlement process and demonstrate serious leverage in the South Caucasus. Moreover, both Moscow and Baku are well aware that Russia, as a mediator, has serious advantages over the European Union. Russia has in its possession the old military maps of the Soviet General Staff, where the borders of republics are indicated with maximum precision. Apparently, this is what Mr. Lavrov meant when he said of Russia's readiness to provide "consultancy services" to Azerbaijan and Armenia. Russia owns Armenian railways, which gives it an understandable advantage in unblocking communications. Finally, Moscow can very effectively fine-tune Yerevan’s policies.

In recent weeks Azerbaijan has once again made a very harsh warning against Armenia. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov initially warned that the artificial delay of the talks posed serious risks. Then President Ilham Aliyev warned Armenia during a military ceremony as part of his recent visit to Kalbajar that if Armenia resorted to its old tactics of delaying the border negotiations, it would regret it. "We are closely monitoring the actions of the revanchist forces raising their heads in Armenia. Let them know about it too. There are my words on top of that mountain: The Iron Fist is always ready, no one must forget about that," President Aliyev said.

This means that Azerbaijan will not allow Armenia to delay the issue for another 30 years.