TRICKY PAUSE

Obviously, the Russian-Ukrainian war is taking on a protracted character. This is evidenced by the ongoing fights in south-eastern Ukraine, despite Russia's announcement of a pause during special operations in the neighbouring country. On top of that, the collective West has recently approved important political and military decisions to help Ukraine and prevent Russia from achieving victory, which is hypothetically presented as the Kremlin achieving its ‘special’ goals not only in Ukraine, but also in the context of a long-term geopolitical confrontation with the US and the European Union.

Unconvincing pause

Russia's respite coincided with the official announcement of the liberation of almost the entire Lugansk Oblast. As a result, the Russian army has consolidated positions not only in this region but also in the significant part of the Donetsk Oblast and some territories in the south of the country, which is almost 20% of the internationally recognised territory of Ukraine.

The key event that prompted Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu to report to President Vladimir Putin on the liberation of the self-proclaimed Lugansk People’s Republic was the capture of the town of Lisichansk. Mr. Putin has therefore ordered that Russian troops be allowed to ‘take some rest’ although they had failed to achieve a serious breakthrough of the line of contact in another Russian priority, Donetsk. In fact, the Russian army has failed to oust the Ukrainian troops from a number of strategically important locations, including Avdeevka. Amid these failures to achieve the military goals, the fate of Moscow’s special operation remains unclear strategically.

Meanwhile, the Russian president has reacted to discussions in the world media on all the possible future developments: "We can hear statements that they want to beat us on the battlefield. What can I say? They’d better not... The West wants to fight us to the last Ukrainian. It is a tragedy for the Ukrainian people, but it seems that is going to happen.” He added that everyone should understand that Russia "by and large has not started anything serious yet".

Advisor to the head of the Ukrainian presidential office Mikhail Podolyaka assessed Mr Putin's "mantra of 'war to the last Ukrainian’ as further evidence of a deliberate genocide". However, the reaction of the Ukrainian side to the pause announced by the Kremlin shows that Kiev does not view it as an evidence of real situation on the battlefield. Indeed, the situation on the battlefields in Donetsk or Kherson occupied by the Russian troops remains serious as before. Most importantly, Ukraine makes it clear in every possible way that it will never accept the consequences of a Russian offensive.

According to the Ukrainian Defence Minister Alexei Reznikov, President Vladimir Zelensky ordered the Ukrainian army to de-occupy coastal areas in the south of the country. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Irina Vereshchuk urged the residents of the Russian-occupied areas of Kherson and Zaporozhye to evacuate by all possible means. "They need to look for opportunities to leave, because our troops will de-occupy these areas. There will be huge battles," Vereshchuk warned.

Amid such a tricky pause on the Ukrainian front, there is little chance to launch any negotiations. President Zelensky has confirmed that Ukraine would not give up its territories for the sake of peace with Russia. This is not only a clear signal of Kiev's unchanged position on this issue. Apparently, Kiev is depriving certain forces in the West, primarily in the EU, of any hope to suspend the war and negotiate with Moscow to the detriment of Ukrainian interests. Kiev continues to demand uninterrupted military assistance from Western countries. Decisions taken in recent weeks by the strategic Euro-Atlantic centres suggest that they regard Kiev's determination to continue the war as a basis of their future policy to contain Russia.

Western promises to help

NATO's new Strategic Concept makes reference to a decision taken at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine will become a member of the alliance in the uncertain future. The new document does not explicitly mention this as a possibility. Yet this reference can be considered a tribute to the current state of affairs.

With the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, President Zelensky and his team made it clear that they agreed to abandon the idea of the country joining NATO. That is, to fulfil one of Russia's key conditions. The same approach was also reflected in the provisions reached between Kiev and Moscow earlier in Istanbul and designed to bring the hostilities to an early end. However, completely different positions on other issues, especially on territorial claims, as Russia refused to recognise Ukraine's right to exist within internationally recognised borders, led to the virtual breakdown of the Istanbul agreements. As a result, it is unclear whether Kiev suspended its rapprochement with NATO in exchange for guarantees of Ukraine's security from leading world powers, including those with the most influence within the alliance. In fact, Western and Ukrainian strategists have returned to discussing the possibility of Kiev's perspective integration into NATO. This was confirmed by the head of the Ukrainian delegation at the NATO summit in Madrid, Deputy Head of the President’s Office Igor Zhovkva: "no one has taken the Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine off the agenda".

Meanwhile, Western leaders approved the increased military assistance to Ukraine. Although NATO supports Kiev exclusively with non-lethal equipment, individual NATO members continue to supply Ukraine with specific types of weapons. For example, President Joe Biden signed a decree that gives the green light to supply a new $400m-worth arms package to Ukraine, including four additional highly mobile artillery rocket systems HIMARS and 1,000 additional 155mm artillery ammunition.

Additionally, NATO is discussing a plan to ensure Ukraine’s compatibility with the organisation's standards. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg openly said that the alliance would support Kiev for as long as it takes to win Ukraine's war against Russia.

But what are the realistic perspectives of the war, given Russia's intention to hold the occupied Ukrainian territories at all costs, Kiev's determination to regain control of the occupied lands and the West's willingness to support Ukraine to ensure its victory and the failure of the Russian military campaign?

Third option

After almost five months since the start of the special military operation, Russia, which has initially intended to only de-Nazify Donbass, Kiev and the entire territory of Ukraine, is now promoting the idea of being ready to limit its control over Lugansk and Donetsk regions, as well as the territories occupied in the Ukrainian south. Nevertheless, Western intelligence agencies believe that Russia has not abandoned its plan to seize most of Ukraine, although in the current circumstances the Russian army cannot accomplish this mission. Therefore, according to US National Intelligence Director Avril Haynes, there are three options for further developments: for Russia to secure a major breakthrough on the frontline, for Ukraine to stabilise the situation on the frontline, and for a protracted war accompanied by minor Russian successes.

Apparently, political circles in the West hope for the third option, which, judging by the current situation, does indeed seem more realistic. We can assume that after the announced pause, Russia will try to consolidate forces in Lugansk and then continue the offensive to take control of the entire territory of the Donetsk Oblast. In addition, Russian army intends to strengthen its positions in partially occupied regions of Kharkov, Zaporozhye and Kherson. On the other hand, the Ukrainian Defence Minister Reznikov acknowledged the high level of depletion in the Ukrainian army.

However, these perspectives will not at all bring the war to an end, let alone a victory for Russia. Because President Zelensky's order to launch a broad counter-offensive in the south of the country and the continued inflow of Western weapons to Ukraine can in the long term turn the situation in favour of Kiev.

By the way, the defence line occupied by the Ukrainian troops is huge, which the Russian army cannot surround in the current situation. Therefore, there is only one option left for the Russians—strong offensive to grind the Ukrainian army, which, however, not only may slow the progress of the ‘special operation’, but also exact in heavy toll on the advancing Russian troops. Many experts believe that general mobilisation may be the only way out for Russia. However, it is unclear whether the Kremlin will decide to do this, as it may cause serious discontent among the population and loss of sufficient support for the idea of ‘special operation’ inside Russia...?

In other words, there is a real prospect of a long, exhausting war, which will inevitably be accompanied by new disasters and suffering for the civilian population. According to the UN, as of early July, the Russian-Ukrainian war has claimed the lives of and left injured more than 10,000 civilians. Of the 4,889 civilians killed, 335 were children. However, the organisation does not rule out that the real figures could be much higher. According to a recent report by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, both the Russian (to a greater extent) and Ukrainian armies at war are responsible for the deaths of civilians because of fighting on civilian sites.

This is the dismal aftermath of war by the end of five months since it began. A war which is likely to go down in history as one of the decisive battles in the bitter geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West. And perhaps even as the real start of the Third World War...