GETTING TO THE ROOT

Unfortunately, yet another round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran held in the capital of Qatar was unsuccessful. To make things worse, after the meeting the parties have made a series of even harsher statements suggesting hopelessness. What was the main topic of the two-day talks in Doha, which is considered as the House of Negotiations of the Middle East? And why did the parties fail to reach an agreement?

Stumbling blocks

In fact, the main initiator and organiser of the Doha talks was the European Union. It seems that in an attempt to prevent a complete breakdown in its relations with Iran, the EU decided to organise another round of talks in Doha to speed up the process before the US President Joe Biden's visit to the region. At first glance, the European proposal seemed to make sense to both sides of negotiations.

The US Special Representative for Iran, Robert Malley, said the European package of proposals contained a specific timetable for Iran to return to a nuclear agreement as well as the lifting of US sanctions against the country. However, he said Tehran had rejected the proposals despite Washington's approval.

US State Department spokesman Ned Price accused Iran of making "inappropriate demands" that go beyond the limits stipulated in the 2015 agreement. He also accused Tehran of not taking the negotiation process seriously. He noted, however, that a new round of talks with Iran was not currently planned.

In turn, the Iranian officials blamed the US for the failure of the Doha talks. Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian accused the Americans of "coming to the talks without concrete proposals".

In his rebuttal statement, Malley said that it was the Iranian side that had not given a concrete answer about the European package of proposals that the US was prepared to accept. At the same time, Malley said that Iran had put forward new demands that had "nothing to do with the nuclear agreement".

Iran's permanent representative to the UN, Majid Takht-Ravanchi, shed some more light on the Doha talks. He said that Iran demanded reliable and objective guarantees from the other side that the nuclear agreement would not be violated again, to no avail though.

However, a US official speaking to Reuters noted that there was no legitimate way to guarantee that successive US governments would abide by the agreement. That is why Washington considered it necessary to support alternative proposals that would satisfy Tehran.

Thus, the existing situation suggests two main conclusions. First, Iran has demanded guarantees from the US to comply with the terms of the future nuclear agreement, but failed to get them. Indeed, Iran has earlier suffered from the actions of the previous US government led by President Donald Trump, which, in addition to withdrawing from the agreement in 2018, imposed even tougher sanctions on Tehran. It is therefore technically impossible to guarantee that President Biden remains in office in the coming years and is not replaced by a Republican candidate willing to pull Washington out of the nuclear deal thanks to his tough stance on Iran.

The second problem is the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Iran demanded that the US remove the IRGC from its list of terrorist organisations in order to restore the nuclear agreement. Washington, however, denied the request, believing that the demand had no direct bearing on the nuclear talks.

The truth is out there…

The Doha talks can be considered yet another opportunity for both sides, even if they were initiated by Brussels. As part of his Middle East tour slated for July 13-16, 2022, President Biden planned to visit first Israel and then Saudi Arabia to attend the summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The nuclear deal with Iran is expected to be one of the key topics of his discussions with the leaders of Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Iraq. In this context, a positive outcome of the Doha talks could be a significant milestone for Washington. Biden could demonstrate US influence in the region, as well as placate the leaders of Israel and the Arab states.

Also a new agreement with Iran, Russia's main ally in the Middle East, would have been a psychological victory over Moscow. But apparently it is the details that have stalled further progress in the negotiation process.

Apparently, Washington's pool of options for compromise on the Iranian nuclear issue has narrowed considerably. On the one hand, Iran's demands go beyond the nuclear agreement, and on the other hand, there is an increasing pressure on the Biden administration from those in the US who oppose the negotiations with Iran. Washington has therefore rejected Tehran's demands, having compared the benefits it would derive from a nuclear deal with very serious pressure from the local opposition.

Another factor influencing the US position in the nuclear talks is the security of Israel, a top priority for Washington in the region. Tehran poses a serious threat to the Jewish state due to its missile arsenal and armed groups. Thus, underneath the main topic of negotiations with Iran are issues that relate to Iran's missile programme and armed groups that pose a threat to US interests in the Middle East.

Certainly, Tehran knows well that Washington cannot give any guarantees on the proposed agreement. And even if they do, such guarantees would not impose any legal liability on the parties. Yet Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear deal gives Tehran an excuse to make a demand for guarantees.

On the other hand, at such a difficult time, Tehran is not ready to make unrequited concessions in the nuclear negotiations. In other words, neither side is ready for serious compromises right now. However, given its deteriorating economic situation, Iran needs a nuclear agreement and the easing of sanctions more than ever.

Meanwhile, the price of gold and foreign exchange rates in Iran have risen again following the Doha talks. Despite the state-run social assistance projects, the economic situation in the country is getting worse, occasionally causing social protests.

However, there are two important factors that apparently strengthen the position of Iranian authorities and diminish the government's concerns about the socio-economic situation in the country. The first one has to do with the deterioration of the global economic situation, especially in the Middle East, with the crisis worsening and inflation rising in most countries, especially in Iran, which has been under US sanctions for the past forty years.

The second important factor is the war in Ukraine, which has set a new political and economic reality all around the world. In recent months, the number of buyers of Iranian oil and Tehran's sales revenues have increased accordingly.

Thus, according to an OPEC report, Iran's oil revenues reached $25.3b in 2021, tripling from a year earlier. It is also reported that Iran increased its oil production from 400K bpd to 1m bpd. Iran's oil revenues are projected to rise to $50b next year.

Interestingly, these indicators were recorded while the sanctions against Iran were still effective. In other words, the Iranian government is trying to take advantage of the conditions, which is partly working well. It is clear that the continuation of the conflict will create new opportunities for Tehran. And by doing so, it can make more serious demands for concessions from Washington.

Conversely, Washington is not ready to make new concessions to Iran for the reasons mentioned above. That is why another round of talks with Iran in Doha ended with nothing.

Yet it is still too early to draw a line under the nuclear negotiations, for discussions will soon continue in a new format and at a different venue.