IN THE AFTERMATH OF RIOTS

The situation in the Republic of Karakalpakstan has practically stabilised since the events of July 1-2 in Nukus, which ended in tragic consequences. With the introduction of the state of emergency, the situation in the region has normalised. Providers of trade, catering and other services, as well as social and industrial facilities in Karakalpakstan have restored full operational capacity. Electricity, gas and water supplies to households have been restored as well. The Uzbek authorities are doing all the best to ensure that the autonomous republic returns to its former life style.

No more violence

However, all the above would not be possible if the events in Nukus had taken on an uncontrolled course, with the mass protests turning into mob violence and arbitrariness. Local authorities believe the original scenario was to expand the protest movement, as well as to block and seize government buildings to organise an insurgency.

Thanks to timely and decisive actions by the law enforcement, who opted for using force against the instigators, it was possible to prevent this scenario. 

The Uzbek Foreign Ministry stated that the illegal actions had clear signs of a pre-planned sabotage aimed at fomenting separatism, destabilising and splitting the peaceful, united, democratic country.

It is reported that the protesters opposed the proposed amendments to articles 70, 71, 72, 74, 75 of the Constitution of the Republic of Uzbekistan concerning the status of the Republic of Karakalpakstan. Protesters claimed that the new amendments would deprive the region of the sovereignty enshrined in the Constitution and the right to secede from Uzbekistan.

So far, no one has raised these issues or questioned the jurisdiction of Uzbekistan over the republic. It is believed that the amendments have been proposed by the Uzbek authorities to adjust the text of the constitution with the real state of affairs in order to prevent separatist forces and their patrons from taking advantage of existing provisions to initiate the issue of the secession of the region from Uzbekistan.

Initially there has been no open criticism of the proposed amendments during the public debates. Nor did the Uzbek authorities receive explicit signals that the initiation of constitutional amendments on the status of the autonomous republic could be exploited by destructive forces.

"Imagine what happened yesterday: these armed men shot an officer of the National Guard and attacked our army for a coup. It means these men are manipulated externally. They are playing to their hands. We won't let that happen. We have enough strength, power and potential. We will bring peace to Karakalpakstan. We only need to find these dishonest people and ensure the rule of law and inevitability of punishment,” the Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said in his public address in Nukus a day after the situation had been stabilised.

Notorious external trace

The Uzbek president has officially confirmed the external interference in the situation.

The situation in Karakalpakstan has hit the headlines of leading foreign media publications and has been actively discussed in the social media.

A common version is that external forces are interested in undermining stability in Uzbekistan due to Tashkent’s strengthening position on the regional and international stage, as well as its active and independent foreign policy that influences the mainline political processes in Central Asia. The most probable version is the transformation of tensions in Karakalpakstan into a full-fledged conflict and the influence on Tashkent's foreign and domestic policies through various tools of moderation. It is also assumed that the events involved various global political actors with long-term interests in Central Asia.

Remarkably, all of Uzbekistan's neighbours and main partners have expressed their support for President Mirziyoyev.

Meanwhile, a number of international human rights organisations and UN agencies have called on the Uzbek authorities to conduct an "independent and objective" investigation into the events that led to civilian casualties.

The events in Nukus are investigated under Part 4 of Article 159 (Encroachments on the constitutional order of the Republic of Uzbekistan) and other articles of the Criminal Code of Uzbekistan. According to the Uzbek Prosecutor General, the authorities are conducting a transparent investigation in accordance with the Uzbek law, with strict observance of the rights of detained individuals.

Interestingly, the detained individuals were found to have committed criminal acts with aggravating consequences, including pogroms, major damage to public property and injuries to law enforcement officers. Many of them have committed the crimes being in a state of strong alcoholic or drug intoxication.

Criticisms of the authorities over the suppression of protest activity and calls for the restoration of the internet in the country by a number of human rights organisations can be seen as attempts to interfere in Uzbekistan's internal affairs. It is known that the authorities have deliberately restricted access to the internet during the state of emergency, as anti-government protests were planned and organised by the organisers of the unrest through social media and directed crowd action. This led to public disorientation and to the development of a negative public background.

Environmental speculations

A large part of Karakalpakstan is located in the Aral Sea region, which has been known as a zone of ecological disaster. The organisers of protests have been particularly vocal on the issue of environmental tensions, accusing the authorities of artificially creating extreme living conditions for the population in the area. In doing so, they have exaggerated the social problems, claiming that they were a product of deliberate policy conducted by the central authorities of Uzbekistan.

Real facts, however, make any attempts to link environmental concerns with current tensions completely in vain. It is unlikely that advocates of Karakalpakstan's independence would be able to implement large-scale, targeted programmes of ecological restoration and socio-economic development, relying on their own forces and being at odds with Tashkent.

Indeed, over the past decades, the Aral Sea region has been considered an ecological disaster zone for the entire continent. The withering Aral Sea basin has adversely affected large territories in Central Eurasia. The Uzbek leadership has swiftly realised the consequences of the ecological disaster and designed and implemented national programmes to rehabilitate the region. In particular, issues related to the development of the Aral Sea region have been identified as current priorities of state policy. Over the past years, 1.7 million hectares of green space have been created on the dried up part of the Aral Sea. A five-year national programme for wildlife restoration, ecosystem rehabilitation and sustainable socio-economic development is in the works. From a lifeless seabed covered with a thick crust of salt spread by dry winds for hundreds and even thousands of kilometres around, it has been possible to create an ecosystem of the Aralkum desert, which restrains the processes of wind erosion and further degradation of the region's ecosystem.

The local economy is also supported mainly by contributions from the state budget, while few local industrial enterprises have established production links within Uzbekistan. Social programmes are also implemented thanks to centralised funding. According to official statistical data, enrolment in pre-school education has increased from 32% to 75% since 2017.

Under the Obod Kishlok and Obod Mahalla programmes, large-scale works have been carried out in the autonomous republic to develop social infrastructure, provide the population with electricity, natural gas and drinking water and improve irrigation and drainage networks. The UN Multi-Partner Trust Fund for Human Security in the Aral Sea region has been established at the initiative of the Uzbek leadership. These programmes are implemented thanks to international cooperation initiatives.

Certainly, there are problems in Karakalpakstan, as everywhere. However, the growth of separatism and the provocation of unrest do not contribute to solving them, but only deepen them and lead to the emergence of new, even worse ones.

The objective of the policy of reforms implemented in Uzbekistan, among other things, is to encourage the socio-economic development of Karakalpakstan. And the policy of openness pursued by Uzbekistan's leadership is aimed at attracting investment to the region and implementing large-scale international programmes to rehabilitate the Aral Sea ecosystem. The effects of these policies are tangible. Apparently, there are forces that do not like Tashkent's actions and are not interested in seeing Uzbekistan as a sustainably developing and stable corner of Central Asia.

However, it has been proved that these forces have neither a social base nor a political future. Therefore, the inglorious end of their venture may set a good example for others.