SIGNS OF CHOLPON-ATA

One of the iconic events of July was the fourth Consultative Meeting of Central Asian Leaders held in the Kyrgyz city of Cholpon-Ata, on the shores of Lake Issyk-Kul, where the presidents of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan agreed to strengthen regional cooperation and enhance joint efforts of the post-Soviet Central Asian states to overcome the problems and challenges facing the region.

Historic treaty

The idea of integrating the Central Asian states that were formerly part of the USSR and became independent as a result of its collapse emerged at the time of these significant historical events. The first meeting of Central Asian heads of state took place as early as on December 13, 1991, five days after Russia, Ukraine and Belarus signed the Belovezh Treaty on the establishment of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The leaders of the Central Asian states decided to join the CIS, and on December 21, 1991 in Almaty, Kazakhstan the new composition of the Commonwealth was established, which was enlarged to include these republics.

The discussion that followed in Tashkent in 1993 about the creation of a regional organisation in Central Asia was not successful due to Turkmenistan's refusal to join any international bodies. Only a year later, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan signed a treaty establishing a common economic space, which Kyrgyzstan later joined as well. The new association was called the Central Asian Economic Community (CAEC). The organisation was expanded in 1998 to include Tajikistan. Later CAEC was renamed the Central Asian Cooperation Organisation (CACO). However, this post-Soviet association lived short. Russia’s joining CACO in 2004 led to the imminent collapse of this Central Asian body. Amid the formation of Eurasian Economic Union, CACO was deemed irrelevant and was soon abolished.

Thus, an attempt to create a real association that would integrate the Central Asian states failed. In fact, the idea was abandoned by the decision of one of the key states in the region, Uzbekistan, which isolated itself after the bloody events of Andijan in 2005. Ironically, it was Uzbekistan that years later initiated the revival of the integration process in Central Asia. The new Uzbek leader, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, proposed holding a Consultative Meeting of Central Asian heads of state. It was held in the Kazakh capital in 2018. The second and third summits were held in Tashkent, Uzbekistan and Turkmenbashi, Turkmenistan in 2019 and in 2021, respectively.

The 4th Consultative Meeting hosted by Kyrgyzstan ended with the signing of a document that is considered to become a founding declaration of the increasingly developing regional co-operation. Presidents of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan signed a Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighbourliness and Cooperation for the Development of Central Asia in the 21st Century. Tajikistan and Turkmenistan have also supported the treaty, but promised to join it after implementing a set of ‘domestic procedures’.

The leaders of the five Central Asian countries also signed several other important documents, notably the Concept of Interaction in Multilateral Formats, the regional programme Green Agenda for Central Asia and the Roadmap for Regional Cooperation for 2022-2024. It is planned to hold the fifth summit of the organisation in Dushanbe, Tajikistan in 2023.

Decisions adopted in Cholpon-Ata indicate that the leaders of post-Soviet Central Asia are committed to strengthening integration trends. And there is a very good reason for this: only through joint efforts can the regional states solve the problems existing in their relations, as well as cope with the serious threats to their security and development that have emerged amid significant transformations in Eurasian and global politics.

Together against threats

Above all, integration processes in Central Asia can help overcome escalating tensions related to a number of acute intra-regional issues, especially the cross-border conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which resulted in several violent clashes involving the armed forces of both countries.

At the Cholpon-Ata summit, the Kazakh president put forward an initiative to create an expert platform in Central Asia to develop "mutually acceptable approaches" on border delimitation. According to President Tokayev, "every shot on the interstate borders echoes heavily not only in the countries involved, but in the entire region. In the current crisis, our countries must demonstrate an example of civilised and responsible approach to overcome the existing contradictions".

The problem of water use also remains very sensitive. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov suggested developing mutually beneficial mechanisms "so that the upstream countries have the opportunity and interest to collect water for irrigation needs during the growing season, regardless of water availability, including during low-water periods based on long-term estimates".

There are a number of destabilising events that have prompted Central Asian leaders to take a more thorough approach to the prospect of increased regional cooperation. For example, since the beginning of this year, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan's Mountainous Badakhshan region and Uzbekistan's Karakalpakstan Autonomous Republic have experienced an internal crisis accompanied by violence and unrest. These events highlight the importance of greater cooperation between the regional countries in order to overcome various external influences that are clearly threatening the political stability and even the integrity of Central Asian states.

The importance of interstate coordination in Central Asia in terms of preventing the threats of extremism and terrorism is also undeniable. These threats come primarily from the neighbouring Afghanistan, which, even after the return of the Taliban to power, is still suffering from a civil conflict with no serious progress made to stabilise the situation in the country. It is no coincidence that the President of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, announced at the summit that the general situation in the region was worsening as a result of developments in Afghanistan, which poses an increased threat of radical extremism.

Meanwhile, Central Asian states also face a much more serious threat of geopolitical scale. Remarkably, while the previous regional summits have focused on issues of socio-economic cooperation, in Cholpon-Ata the focus was on political cooperation. This is due to the current global situation emerged with the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the total confrontation between Russia and the West.

External factors

Central Asia can rightly be considered a strategic arena with the unfolding geopolitical confrontation between Russia, the West and China, which has significantly strengthened its economic position in the region over the past years. Plus, all Central Asian states are obliged to China, which is interested in further, even unobtrusively creeping, expansion of its influence in the region.

In fact, the Central Asian elites demonstrate an ambiguous attitude towards the Western powers. On the one hand, they intend to expand economic and technological cooperation with the US and the European Union. On the other hand, individual destabilisation processes in Central Asia are often linked to the activities of Western actors. Apparently, they do not shy to exploit the crises there in order to geopolitically squeeze Russia and China out of the region.

The Russian factor in Central Asian politics is particularly important. Throughout the post-Soviet period Russia has been seen as one of the guarantors of security in the region, as evidenced by its alliance with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). However, Russia's military operation in Ukraine has seriously alarmed the Central Asian countries. Especially after the frequently voiced claims by the Russian political class and even by the Russian President Vladimir Putin about ‘Russia's historical lands’ in relation to almost the entire post-Soviet space, and the explicit manifestations of territorial claims, in particular to the northern territories of Kazakhstan.

The future of the Russian factor in the region are weakening due to the deterioration of the economic situation in the Russian Federation thanks to harsh Western sanctions. It is not surprising that the Central Asian states are now trying to secure their access to global markets, including the energy market. While a lion’s share of Central Asian exports and imports still go through the Russian territory, they are seriously discussing the possibility of alternative trade routes. For example, President Tokayev of Kazakhstan, Central Asia's largest state, has explicitly stated the need to diversify energy routes. He gave instructions to his administration to develop the optimal implementation of the Trans-Caspian route running through China, Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea area, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and on to Europe.

In addition, Turkey's strategic position in Central Asia is clearly strengthening, as we can see through the growing interest of the Turkic countries in the region in the Organisation of Turkic States, which also involves Azerbaijan as a member states.

However, with all possible foreign policy configurations, the key for the Central Asian states is their ability to form a united front against the modern threats and challenges. Can they realistically translate their stated goals of strengthening regional cooperation into reality? Or will they remain only on paper of the Treaty of Friendship, Good Neighbourhood and Cooperation signed in Cholpon-Ata?

The future of Central Asian integration will depend on the answers to these questions. The initial groundwork has been accomplished: the leaders of regional states seem to clearly realise that only through close cooperation and friendly relations with each other can they achieve greater national sovereignty and economic prosperity. After all, it is important to realise that they depend on the realisation of their own strategic interests rather than on the will of any external power centres.