THE LOGIC OF WAR

With the progressing war in Ukraine and complication of the international situation, it is clear that the war will continue and the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine will become increasingly fierce. Meanwhile, the increasingly frequent shelling of the Zaporozhzhye nuclear power plant is threatening and could lead to another Chernobyl with fatal consequences for the entire Europe. Ukraine, which has strenuously resisted the Russian offensive and is supported by its partners, is not giving up. Russia, although it has markedly slowed down the offensive, is not about to change its strategy either.

Frontline remains the same

In general, observers believe that the absence of radical changes on the frontline in the Russian-Ukrainian war is due to the increased combat readiness of the Ukrainian army and its successful level of interaction with its partners, primarily NATO. Ukraine has already received another $800m military aid package in line with the US president's exercise of his authority—he can approve the transfer of additional weapons from the US stocks. A new instalment is on the way.

An important component of US military assistance to Kiev was the supply of US military systems such as HIMARS. It is expected that thanks to this system the Ukrainians can hit important military facilities in non-controlled Crimea. This is also an important psychological factor for Ukraine. It signals its determination to liberate not only the territories in the uncontrolled east and southeast of the country, but also the Crimean peninsula, which is part of Ukrainian territory under international law.

Experts believe that Russian air defence systems have proved ineffective against HIMARS. It has been suggested that out of six HIMARS missiles launched up to 80km distance, the Russians are able to shoot down one at best.

Either way, some Western media outlets report that the frequent explosions at Crimean military facilities are a product of the effective activities of the Ukrainian army, although the Ukrainian side has not officially claimed responsibility for them.

Incidentally, there has been a tangible increase in the number of missile attacks on the rear of the Russian army recently, such as the bombings in Kherson and strikes on strategic communications in Donbass.

The possible vulnerability of the Russian air defence system also indicates that the Ukrainian army is employing increasingly effective resistance tactics, sometimes even leading the enemy to turn defensive.

But overall, there are no major changes in the military campaign itself. Russian forces continue to concentrate their efforts in and around Donbass, trying to establish full control over this Ukrainian region. Kiev, on the other hand, has been increasingly determined to liberate the Kherson region and the entire south of the country. It is no coincidence that a lion’s share of military action is concentrated in these regions of Ukraine.

It's worth a try

Meanwhile, we can see efforts to put the situation in a manageable course with the possibility of reaching a peaceful solution to the conflict. Like the recent meeting between the Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Lviv.

Observers believe that the goal of the meeting was to ensure at least a temporary cessation of hostilities. The Turkish president was expected to suggest such an initiative during the meeting. In fact, he did. Erdogan did offer Zelensky to organise a meeting with the Russian president. But Zelensky objected claiming that that negotiations with Russia would be possible only if the latter withdraws all its troops from the Ukrainian territory.

Such a response was expected, as negotiations with Moscow and the suspension of military activities might have been perceived in Ukraine and the countries providing it with military and political support as a readiness for compromise. In the West, there are fears that this could lead to increased criticism: was it worth providing Kiev with such extensive military support at all? This could also lead to public mistrust of the political rhetoric of Western leaders about the steadfast assistance to Ukraine until it liberates its territory.

For the Turkish president, however, ending the active phase of the war could mean reducing the risks of its geographical expansion to the Black Sea, which undoubtedly affects Turkish interests. Ankara expects to continue the dialogue with both Moscow and Kiev and does not want to face a tough choice between the opposing sides. At the same time, Erdogan says openly that he sees no clear winners or losers in this war, insisting that it is negotiations that can put a final end to it. "We have been with our Ukrainian friends and continue to be with them... The war will end at the negotiating table. Zelensky and Guterres agree with me; we as Turkey are once again ready to play the role of mediator," Erdogan said.

Vladimir Zelensky himself described the outcome of the meeting with his Turkish counterpart as follows: "President Erdogan's visit to Ukraine is a strong signal of support from such a powerful country. We have also discussed the issues of defence cooperation with Mr. Erdogan," he said.

After the talks in Lviv, the two countries also signed an agreement to rebuild Ukraine's devastated infrastructure.

One step away from disaster

The participants of the trilateral meeting have further elaborated on the so-called grain agreement as well as the parameters of a possible delegation of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant (ZNPP), as agreed by Zelensky and Guterres. This is the only agreement that is implemented quite effectively by the parties involved in the conflict.

Unfortunately, the summit did not contribute to the resolution of acute problems caused by the conflict, in particular the alarming situation around the ZNPP. Not only has the shelling not stopped, but it has even become more intensive. The situation is so critical that on August 25, for the first time in its history (ZNPP was built in 1984), the plant was disconnected from the power grid.

ZNPP's own power needs are now supplied by the Ukrainian energy system through the ZNPP communication line.

Meanwhile, the situation continues to be critical. President Zelensky said that after the shutdown of the nuclear power plant, the diesel generators went off immediately to supply power to the plant itself. According to him, the continuous operation of generators and the professional reaction of the ZNPP personnel saved the entire world from a nuclear disaster. "The world should understand the threat. Had the diesel generators not activated, had the automation system and the personnel of the plant not worked after the blackout, we would have been forced to overcome the consequences of another radiation accident," Zelensky said.

A positive signal came from the IAEA, which dispatched an expert team to ZNPP. The mission is to assess the damage to the facility's safety and adopt recommendations to improve it.

Gruesome statistics and the logic of war

By coincidence August 24 marked both the anniversary of Ukraine's independence and six months into a war that continues to claim the lives of soldiers and civilians and is accompanied by much devastation. It is estimated that between February 24 and August 10 more than 13,000 Ukrainian citizens were killed in the war, with 5,500 of this number being civilians. According to experts, the actual death toll could be much higher. Both sides speak of tens of thousands of deaths, but their figures differ and it is impossible to verify them.

At the end of August, more than 12 million people were reported to be refugees and internally displaced, of whom more than 6 million had fled abroad. The documented damage to infrastructure is estimated at $200 million. Sadly, these tragic figures continue to multiply. And there is still no hope for a quick resolution to the conflict.

Speaking at a press conference following the Crimean Platform forum, Ukrainian President Zelensky explicitly said that negotiations with Russia were "out of the question" because the Russian authorities were ready to wage war rather than dialogue. Two days later, Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the presidential office, explained that "President Zelensky is unequivocally against [negotiations], and Ukrainian society is adamant because we are fully aware of the risks". According to Kiev, "any temporary ceasefire would mean the continuation of the Russian aggression in the future.”

Kiev's partners are also against any negotiations with Moscow. Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned world leaders and Ukraine's partners not to negotiate with President Vladimir Putin. He stressed that if Moscow succeeds, it will be a signal that borders can be changed by force and no country on Russia's perimeter will be safe.

By the way, preparations for a referendum on the annexation of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics to Russia may also indicate at such intentions. Kiev warned that if Russia decides to annex the eastern regions of Ukraine, Moscow can forget about any negotiations.

It is no coincidence that the Ukrainian president called on Turkish President Erdogan and UN Secretary-General Guterres to voice the toughest possible position on Russia's planned "pseudo-referendums in the occupied territory". Kiev hopes that they can convey its position to the Russian leadership about the unacceptability of this step and its consequences. But in the current situation there are fears that a possible call by the above politicians to Moscow will unlikely refrain it from such a step.

War has its own logic, and as it continues, there is little hope for solutions dictated by the logic of peace.