EXPECTED SURPRISE

The unexpected yet anticipated offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kharkiv can be called a turning point in the military campaign. For the first time in six months, the Ukrainian army liberated 3,000 square kilometres of land and regain control over several towns and dozens of villages as a result of a full-scale counter-offensive operation and at the cost of stubborn fighting. According to many analysts, the Ukrainian army has for the first time demonstrated that it could not only defend itself, but also successfully attack. To some extent it can be considered the beginning of a psychological turning point in the war.

Counter-offensive

According to military and other experts, the main target of the operation were the towns of Izum and Kupiansk, a major railway junction of great military and strategic importance. After capturing the latter, the Ukrainian army can safely be proud of a decisive step towards the liberation of the entire region. The Russian administration of Kharkiv is located in Kupiansk. The fall of the centre of the Russian interim administration will significantly affect the efficiency of governance in the Russian-controlled part of the Kharkiv region.

The encirclement and withdrawal of large Russian military groups based in Izum could seriously change the military and strategic situation on the entire front line. The Russian army is currently redeploying significant forces in this direction in an attempt to curb the pace of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Experts argue that the main objective of the Izum counter-offensive was to create pressure from the north to cover the main Ukrainian fortified area in Donetsk Region around Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. In this case, the operation could be considered a condition for the start of the liberation of at least the northern part of the Donetsk region.

In general, the Ukrainian army became active on the front from the end of August. The long-awaited counter-offensive began in the Kherson direction. By breaking through the forward defence lines of Russian units and capturing several strategic positions, the Ukrainian army secured certain positional advantages on the southern front. It was expected that this was where they would develop their offensive operations.

Active counter-offensive in and around Kharkiv came as a surprise to many. Apparently, this was exactly the plan. At the very beginning of the counter-offensive, the AFU leadership asked everyone “to refrain from speculations and not to assess the actions of the AFU and the Ukrainian Defence Forces as a whole". They reminded that "only the military leadership has full information about the situation in forward positions, so military officials can provide this information.”

With the start of the counter-offensive, Kiev's strategic plan became more or less clear. We can assume that the Ukrainian army will not limit its actions to the Izum area only. With the situation evolving, much will also depend on the actions of the Russian side, which is trying to regroup its forces and prevent the Ukrainian military from further success.

Ramstein as a prerequisite of success

On September 8, just before the Ukrainian army's counter-offensive, the Contact Group on Ukrainian Defence held another meeting at the US Ramstein Air Base in Germany. More than 50 countries discussed military assistance, including for the long term.

It is believed that a massive build-up of military assistance to Ukraine by Western states was the main condition for a successful counter-offensive. It is known that the US has already been supplying Ukraine with weapons for a planned counter-offensive for several months. At the same time, judging from the leaked statements of competent US officials, the US has been fulfilling "many of the specific requests" of the Ukrainian side as part of the military assistance packages.

This refers to additional ammunition, artillery and Javelin anti-tank missile systems. Although the information about the arms deliveries was publicly known, there were no reports that they were carried out for a planned counterattack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Anyway, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin and US Joint Chiefs of Staff head General Mark Milley were in regular contact with the Ukrainian side to determine which weapons Ukraine needed depending on its combat tasks.

On September 8, Ramstein summit was no longer discussing specific deliveries, but a general support plan for Kiev. This was a long-term strategy, not only for the war but also for the period afterwards.

Increasing the combat skills of Ukrainian soldiers is of exceptional importance amid the recent developments. An effective training programme launched by the UK, supported by Canada, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and New Zealand, is also yielding results. A total of 30,000 troops will be trained and equipped under this programme. This is enough to equip six brigades.

It was former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson who, during his visit to Kiev in June, offered Vladimir Zelensky the first training programme for the Ukrainian military on British soil. Since then, nearly five thousand servicemen have undergone training in Britain alone. The UK’s capacity allows up to 10,000 Ukrainian servicemen to be trained every 120 days.

It is no coincidence that the news of the election of a close associate of Boris Johnson, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, as the new British Prime Minister was welcomed not only by her supporters in the UK, but also by Ukraine's political leadership, which looks forward to continuing Johnson's policy of unconditional military and political support for Kiev.

Neither the death of Queen Elizabeth II nor the ascension to the throne of her son Charles has changed the country's foreign policy, particularly its strategy towards Ukraine.

All for victory

On September 9, finance ministers and central bank governors of EU countries met with the representatives of the European Commission and the ECB in Prague. They discussed the impact of the ongoing war in Ukraine on the European economy and supported the swift adoption of additional financial assistance of €5bn to the country.

Following the July agreement to provide €1 billion, EU finance ministers agreed to multiply by five times and accelerate the next installment of macro-financial assistance to Ukraine.

The ongoing hostilities in Ukraine led to the most alarming consequences, Bloomberg reports. The country's economy has shrunk by 37%. The new loan is expected to mitigate the impact of the devastating war and will be used to support the day-to-day operation of the state apparatus and the country's vital infrastructure. The money will be made available as loans and grants.

Remarkably, during the debate on economic aid to Ukraine, the finance ministers also discussed Ukraine's post-war reconstruction.

Ukraine's allies understand that without economic support for the country, it is impossible to expect victory. No matter how large-scale the military assistance to Kiev is, without targeted economic assistance aimed at solving the problems of ordinary citizens, it cannot produce the desired results. Needless to say, without external assistance, the Ukrainian economy would hardly be able to withstand the consequences of the war.

Galloping inflation and unemployment rates and the enormous burden caused by a growing number of refugees and internally displaced persons are only a partial list of the main problems of the Ukrainian economy.

Meanwhile, as a result of the measures and huge monetary infusions, the country has managed to contain inflation as much as possible and made efforts to restore the business environment. As of today, 80% of businesses in the Kiev region have resumed their operations.

Despite the complete shutdown of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, which threatens to significantly reduce Ukraine's electricity generation, the economy continues to function.   Moreover, economic growth is even projected to exceed 10% next year.  It is believed that this is not due to the improving situation—businesses that have been shut down will begin to operate. Businesses are adapting to working under war conditions.

Life goes on in Ukraine. Ukrainians do not doubt that final victory must be forged not only at the front, but also on the rear.