RESOLUTE RESPONSE

On September 12-13, Armenian military subversive groups used the mountainous terrain mainly in Kalbajar, Lachin and Dashkesan in an attempt to mine the areas between the positions of Azerbaijani units, as well as the supply roads on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Thanks to the coordinated actions of the Azerbaijani army units deployed in the area, it was possible to prevent the provocation.

Armenia's new military fiasco

Following the tangible blow to Armenian subversive groups and the destruction of their military equipment along the border line, by the morning of September 13 the parties reached a cease-fire agreement.

In fact, it was the largest military clash between Azerbaijan and Armenia since the end of the 44-day war, a culmination of the process of increasing tension on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border observed over the past weeks. The actions of the opposite side prove that the Armenian army had been thoroughly preparing for this provocation. They had deployed artillery and advanced military units in various sections of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. The incident has eventually led to numerous casualties claiming the lives of 50 Azerbaijani servicemen, including the border troops. Armenians suffered considerable losses in manpower and equipment, which forced them to retreat to other positions, enabling the Azerbaijani units to ensure visual control over a large area along the border line.

Amid the two rounds of negotiations on delimitation and demarcation of the state border, Yerevan began to openly oppose Azerbaijan in its efforts to strengthen its borders.

For almost thirty years, this area had been occupied by the Armenian military and came under Azerbaijani control only after the victorious 44-day war in autumn 2020. Immediately after the de-occupation, Azerbaijan began to strengthen the border, reinforce the border troops, erect engineering structures, bring communications and build barracks.

Causes of tension

Over the past two years, Armenian extremists have repeatedly attempted to destabilise the situation on the border and prevent the consolidation of post-war peace. Sabotage and full-scale military operations were carried out in order to retake the Azerbaijani positions. Yerevan believes Azerbaijanis have allegedly invaded their territory, while Baku claims that Armenia has occupied Azerbaijani lands for a long time and does not allow delimitation and demarcation of borders in line with the common principles, and is hampering the process in every possible way. That is why Azerbaijan reserves the right to determine its own borders independently, without coordinating this issue with the aggressor, which is clearly not interested in fair resolution of the situation.

Apparently, the only civilised way to solve the existing problem is to ensure that the border commissions work productively in the near future. Remarkably, the second meeting of commissions was held in Moscow on August 30. On the following day, the heads of Azerbaijan and Armenia met in Brussels and decided to the third meeting in the Belgian capital not later than the end of November.

Presumably, by that time certain specifics and solution to existing problems should be ready. Meanwhile, Yerevan is avoiding the resolution of existing issues, in particular, to transfer the seized exclave territories in the Gazakh district of Azerbaijan and in Nakhchivan. These borderlands are of strategic interest to Armenia, as they are important communication lines that connect Armenia with its neighbors. Without them, Armenia loses strategic control of its communications and will be forced to build new bypasses, which are very expensive and problematic given the chronic shortage of budgetary resources in Armenia.

The current tension was apparently designed to slow down the ongoing process, to create artificial obstacles to the development of peace agreement and to draw the attention of external stakeholders to the situation. The objective was to force Azerbaijan to change its line of behaviour, to move back to the lines desired by Armenia and to restart another conflict.

Yerevan claims that the Garabagh conflict is not solved, the ‘buried’ OSCE Minsk Group should be activated, the status of Armenians living in Garabagh should be discussed and a peace treaty signed with Baku with a condition that Azerbaijan's sovereignty does not extend to Garabagh.

International reaction

For the US and France, which have been marginalised during the post-regional political process, this position provides an opportunity to return to the region as full-fledged moderators, to squeeze Russia in addressing the remaining regional issues and to increase their influence on Armenia, and most importantly, on Armenians.

It is no coincidence that the French president was among the first to respond to Nikol Pashinyan's call to influence Baku's actions. After the phone conversations between Emmanuel Macron and Nikol Pashinian, the French president's office issued a statement about bringing the situation to the UN Security Council, which it currently chairs.

According to Paris, the French leader said he was also ready for talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

It is interesting that Yerevan is also trying to use the CSTO platform to secure support to its actions. These attempts have been made with enviable persistence, albeit without success, for a number of years.

This time, the Armenian Security Council decided to request help from Russia to implement the provisions of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, as well as the CSTO and the UN Security Council due to the tension on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.

However, we can hardly expect the CSTO to take any condemnatory action. This time too, the Armenian prime minister requested help from both Russia and its geopolitical rivals. What kind of reaction did he expect then?

At an extraordinary meeting, the CSTO Collective Security Council only proposed to establish a working group within the organisation to analyse the situation and develop proposals due to the tension on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.

Meanwhile, the President of Azerbaijan, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Ilham Aliyev held an operational meeting with the participation of senior military leadership of the country and gave the appropriate instructions.

On the same day President Aliyev had a telephone conversation with Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Turkish leader expressed his condolences to the relatives and friends of the fallen Azerbaijani soldiers, noted that fraternal Turkey is always close to Azerbaijan and emphasised the solidarity of our countries.

New Armenian provocations make the issue of creating a safety zone along the border line relevant. Otherwise, we can witness another round of tensions.

Tensions on the border are taking place amid Azerbaijan's tireless attempts to conclude a peace agreement with Armenia. Unfortunately, the situation shows that Yerevan does not accept peaceful approaches.